SS2, Berman's "Killer Cards" (chart) Help Please

[Rianna]

Would anyone be kind enough to explain what may be the correct way to use Lyle Berman's chart of "Killer Cards" in SS2, Omaha PL section.

Any comments about them are greatly appreciated, thank you.

Say you're drawing to a nut flush against a set. At best you have 9 outs and he has 6 "kill cards", i.e. cards that kill your draw when he hits the boat. Of course if you hit the turn he gets 3 more boat outs and if you miss you lose 1 draw out. But let's keep it simple for now to make reading the chart easier.

From the chart, with a draw to 9 cards twice (turn + river), you have a 39.5% chance of getting your flush. But you don't have a 39.5% chance of winning. He has at least 6 "kills" which lowers your chances of winning (according to the chart) to 32.9%.

The "8 to 10" column is a pretty good approximation of what happens against a set in general. Here with 9 draws you show a 30.2% chance of winning, which is very close to the standrad flush draw vs naked set scenario of 30/70.

Hope this helps.

[BluffTHIS!]

This ignores the fact that if you hit your draw on the turn, and he has nothing other than a set with which to redraw, then he will be making a mistake to call your pot size bet or your raise. Especially since if he does and the board pairs and there is much money left to bet, you should fold which means his turn play was especially bad because he truly had no implied odds.

However the chart is good for calculating your true equity in a hand when you would get allin on the flop with a very good draw. That move for example when you had straight plus straight flush draws would allow you to win when the board paired on the turn but brought the straight flush on the river. Had you had money left on the turn you would generally have folded and lost the opportunity of a redraw.