When Pot Odds Conflict with logic

12 left in a 3+0.30 going on right now, I am in 9th place, everyone is pretty tight except 11-12.


No Limit - Level XVI (3000/6000) - 2005/11/19 - 06:33:34 (ET)

jsibley: posts small blind 3000
dustinisme2: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Marwan34 [Ad Th]
cajun40: folds
Marwan34: raises 18000 to 24000
menbiller: folds
picc19: folds
jsibley: raises 28157 to 52157 and is all-in
dustinisme2: folds
Marwan34: calls 28157
*** FLOP *** [2c Jh 6d]
*** TURN *** [2c Jh 6d] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [2c Jh 6d 3d] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jsibley: shows [Kd Ac] (high card Ace)
Marwan34: shows [Ad Th] (high card Ace - lower kicker)
jsibley collected 112114 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 112114 | Rake 0
Board [2c Jh 6d 3d 9d]
Seat 2: dustinisme2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: cajun40 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Marwan34 showed [Ad Th] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 6: menbiller folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: picc19 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: jsibley (small blind) showed [Kd Ac] and won (112114) with high card Ace

So that takes me down to 45K with 4 and 8K blinds and gonna have to move in really quick.. I really knew I should have folded, but I had great pot odds.. lesson of the day: don't be a donk like me and knock off your whole stack on A-10 just because you're sorta/kinda priced in .. seems like I always make a stupid mistake nearing the finish line.

And I'm out in 10th as my K7 << Q7.. grrreeaatttt.

[betgo]

You were getting 2-1 to call the push. I think you had to call. Villain has 10xBB and could do this with a lot of hands that don't have you dominated.

If you raise 3xBB, you could fold here. However, in some situations the larger raise may work better.

Stuff like this happens, as does losing with K7 to Q7.

[MikeSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
12 left in a 3+0.30 going on right now, I am in 9th place, everyone is pretty tight except 11-12.


No Limit - Level XVI (3000/6000) - 2005/11/19 - 06:33:34 (ET)

jsibley: posts small blind 3000
dustinisme2: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Marwan34 [Ad Th]
cajun40: folds
Marwan34: raises 18000 to 24000
menbiller: folds
picc19: folds
jsibley: raises 28157 to 52157 and is all-in
dustinisme2: folds
Marwan34: calls 28157
*** FLOP *** [2c Jh 6d]
*** TURN *** [2c Jh 6d] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [2c Jh 6d 3d] [9d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jsibley: shows [Kd Ac] (high card Ace)
Marwan34: shows [Ad Th] (high card Ace - lower kicker)
jsibley collected 112114 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 112114 | Rake 0
Board [2c Jh 6d 3d 9d]
Seat 2: dustinisme2 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: cajun40 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Marwan34 showed [Ad Th] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 6: menbiller folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: picc19 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: jsibley (small blind) showed [Kd Ac] and won (112114) with high card Ace

So that takes me down to 45K with 4 and 8K blinds and gonna have to move in really quick.. I really knew I should have folded, but I had great pot odds.. lesson of the day: don't be a donk like me and knock off your whole stack on A-10 just because you're sorta/kinda priced in .. seems like I always make a stupid mistake nearing the finish line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just dont put yourself in the situation where you, "have to call"

[ansky451]

You're not a donk for making the trivially easy call.

You're a donk for raising 4x from ep with ATo. After you do that, the call is retardedly easy getting like 3-1.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not a donk for making the trivially easy call.

You're a donk for raising 4x from ep with ATo. After you do that, the call is retardedly easy getting like 3-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

hero is the CO-1. he should obviously raise. 4x is too much - 3x is fine. b/c of antes, i usually don't raise less here.

but the more important point for the OP is that it would have been a horrible play if you folded to the raise.

you're calling 28k to win a total pot of 112k. that means that if you knew for a fact you would win the pot 25%, it would be a breakeven call in terms of chips. you would prefer to pass up an even money gamble (in terms of chips again), so you're a little bit unhappy when you call and he shows AK. (you're 25% to win that hand). if he has QQ, you're about 30% to win, and that's probably about as much edge you need in order to be willing to gamble.

so against TT-KK, you could go either way on calling or folding, and against AJ+ you have a mild preference for folding. obviously calling AA is a disaster. but folding against A9/KQ/55/etc is also a huge disaster, and villain can definitely have those hands here. for example, against 55 you're ~45% to win and need to be 25%, so that's a very profitable call. against A9, when you're 75%, it's a total shitshow if you fold. way worse to fold vs A9 than to call vs AA.

Thanks for the input guys.. I put him on a tight range because nobody is going to push on the bubble when strength is shown without a really premium hand (imo), and he knows I probably won't fold.. that being said, even though it was for a lot of my chips too I couldn't lay it down given the odds.. Maybe I should have raised less as mentioned, I was trying to steal some blinds to get into a better position at the ft and people were playing passively.

The A-10 raise was with 4 people left to act behind so I think it was reasonable raise, but should have probably raised less to give myself an exit strategy.