ATs against a LAG [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

jason_t

11-19-2005, 01:01 AM

31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG. I 3-bet A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif otb. He calls.

The flop is 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
He bets and I call.

The turn is T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
He bets and I raise.

The river is 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif
He checks, I bet, he raises, I 3-bet

11-19-2005, 01:17 AM

Ok, this hand is a disaster. Why do you 3 bet preflop??? Small Stakes hold them specifically says to fold AT to a raise. This kind of preflop looseness is what i look for in a table. Your flop call is ok because you bloated the pot with an awful 3 bet so i guess you have to. On the turn, you might be behind 3 sevens so why on earth would you raise? You cant beat trips with this hand. I would probably call for my image but then fold the river. The river is the worst of all. Yeah you have a full house but even those need to be valued relatively to our opponents possible hands (read: quads). you are spewing here and wont be able to move up limits with play like this.

istewart

11-19-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wont be able to move up limits with play like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Got one thing right! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

McGahee

11-19-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this hand is a disaster. Why do you 3 bet preflop??? Small Stakes hold them specifically says to fold AT to a raise. This kind of preflop looseness is what i look for in a table. Your flop call is ok because you bloated the pot with an awful 3 bet so i guess you have to. On the turn, you might be behind 3 sevens so why on earth would you raise? You cant beat trips with this hand. I would probably call for my image but then fold the river. The river is the worst of all. Yeah you have a full house but even those need to be valued relatively to our opponents possible hands (read: quads). you are spewing here and wont be able to move up limits with play like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read your first post but I'm pretty sure it's better than this one.

I don't know how much value there is in the river 3-bet, but otherwise pretty standard.

uw_madtown

11-19-2005, 01:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't read your first post but I'm pretty sure it's better than this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not.

krimson

11-19-2005, 01:33 AM

I think the river is the only piece in question here right?

I think I like this river 3-bet. I actually started out writing a response that I didn't like it and would just call but my analysis leads in the other direction.

I think his line here suggests that he does not have 7's. It looks like he backed off on the turn when we raised, but then when the 3rd 7 comes he gets comfortable again and c/r's us. Likely holdings are A9, AT, KT, QT, JT, or an overpair. Possibly even an underpair.

There are much more combinations of non JJ+ hands that he could have raised here.

I guess the question is, how often is he c/r'ing the river with something worse than 7's full of 10's? I think your experience with the villian is more helpful in determining the finer aspects of this than looking at his stats.

uw_madtown

11-19-2005, 01:34 AM

krimson

11-19-2005, 01:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he had JJ+ preflop, he'd cap

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very good point that I missed in my analysis. Definitely heavily favours a 3-bet now.

imported_anacardo

11-19-2005, 01:46 AM

Everything here seems reasonable; I would often call the river raise against a "standard" LAG, but your reads and history add a lot of value to the three-bet. What's your plan for a river cap? Cringe and call, or call with all confidence? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

einbert

11-19-2005, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This kind of preflop looseness is what i look for in a table

[/ QUOTE ]
lol

einbert

11-19-2005, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he had JJ+ preflop, he'd cap (and probably 3-bet the turn).

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably on both counts, but I have seen plenty of lags smoothcall preflop threebets with big pairs. But as far as threebetting the turn, I totally agree with you. Plus his preflop smoothcall/flop donkbet doesn't seem indicative of a big pocket pair.

I think this hand is fine Jason. As you said "you have a history" with him. In my opinion, the thing about these "histories" is that they are almost impossible to convey unless you've actually been there. For example I played this hand yesterday that I would have played totally differently if it weren't for the specific history I had against this player:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Now if I came onto the forum and posted this guy's stats and this hand, it wouldn't make any sense at all and everyone would think I was crazy. But given our history, I just felt that this was the way to play this hand. I guess you could say I went with the instincts that have been supposedly developing during my 250K hands of LHE.

So nice hand.

Entity

11-19-2005, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, this hand is a disaster. Why do you 3 bet preflop??? Small Stakes hold them specifically says to fold AT to a raise. This kind of preflop looseness is what i look for in a table. Your flop call is ok because you bloated the pot with an awful 3 bet so i guess you have to. On the turn, you might be behind 3 sevens so why on earth would you raise? You cant beat trips with this hand. I would probably call for my image but then fold the river. The river is the worst of all. Yeah you have a full house but even those need to be valued relatively to our opponents possible hands (read: quads). you are spewing here and wont be able to move up limits with play like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really are a donkey.

Jason, you played this hand fine.

Rob

newhizzle

11-19-2005, 02:29 AM

jason - i like it, for once we can agree on something i guess

anyway, to address eeyores questions:

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you 3 bet preflop???

[/ QUOTE ]

this guys a LAG, so his opening range is probably pretty wide, although 16%PFR is not that high, theres still a good chance that ATs has him beat, especially if jason has a read on him that he likes to open Ax or something(i dont know if he does or not), for an UTG raise ATs is probably near the bottom of the range id 3-bet with here

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, you might be behind 3 sevens so why on earth would you raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

theres really no reason to put this guy on a seven, i think this raise is very standard

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably call for my image but then fold the river. The river is the worst of all. Yeah you have a full house but even those need to be valued relatively to our opponents possible hands (read: quads). you are spewing here and wont be able to move up limits with play like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

folding the river is out of the question, im not giving this guy credit for quads or an overpair at this point, keep in mind hes a loose-aggressive and jason has a history with him being overly aggressive, i dont know how much value there is to a 3-bet, but i dont know the player, i think this hand is played fine if this guy is truely a LAG

edit - i just realized this guy might be a gimmick account

einbert

11-19-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, you might be behind 3 sevens so why on earth would you raise? You cant beat trips with this hand. I would probably call for my image but then fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.cardplayer.com/uploads/authors/slotboom.jpg
I fold.

Eurotrash

11-19-2005, 02:41 AM

does nobody actually get this (Eeyore's) post?

regarding the hand, unless the guy is the tricky/bad type who wouldn't cap it PF, it seems like we have the best hand. so I guess the 3 bet is ok vs. this guy given the read and history, otherwise i'd be calling the river raise.

DrewOnTilt

11-19-2005, 02:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
does nobody actually get this (Eeyore's) post?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's obviously not meant to be a serious post, but I'm not sure what the point of it is?

NH Jason. With that specific read I play it the same, except I'm not going to 3-bet the river unless I am 100% sure of myself. Against most LAGs this is a WA/WB situation on the last card.

Entity

11-19-2005, 04:23 AM

A close friend has convinced me that this is closer to a fold than a 3-bet preflop. We both agree that it's a 3-bet if it's 8-handed, and while I'm on the fence, I'm willing to rethink it. AJs is still an insta3bet, as is AJo+. I'm 3-betting 88 there, though 99 is the cutoff for mi amigo.

toss

11-19-2005, 04:25 AM

I can think we can better decide to 3-bet PF if we know if villain changes his raises standard with position. I think this 3-bet is thin, but then again I'm weaker than most here.

Richard Berg

11-19-2005, 04:32 AM

Looks great, Jason. He'll call your 3bet with a worse T, 9, or pair more than enough to make up for the times he's holding a strangely played KK. My only question is whether the villian's preflop lagginess is position-aware, and if so, how many people are behind him UTG.

jason_t

11-19-2005, 06:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
A close friend has convinced me that this is closer to a fold than a 3-bet preflop. We both agree that it's a 3-bet if it's 8-handed, and while I'm on the fence, I'm willing to rethink it. AJs is still an insta3bet, as is AJo+. I'm 3-betting 88 there, though 99 is the cutoff for mi amigo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If AJs is an insta 3-bet how is ATs close to a fold?

JJNJustin

11-19-2005, 08:09 AM

I wouldnt three-bet an UTG raise pre-flop with ATs. Most times I would just fold. If the game were loose, I would just call. But most times I would fold to an UTG raise. Most times you are in bad shape pre-flop. Even if you have the UTG LAG beat, you could easily run into a better hand behind you in a player with better position on both you and the UTG. I would not make this play pre-flop for those two reasons. Sometimes against a LAG, you will have hands that you feel are better than his raising standards and you will want to 3-bet him, but given your position, it can be risky because you still have many players behind you to act. If your position were better I might take this line, but not if you're in early position yourself.

Raising the turn when you spike your ten is okay, although very aggressive. When he calls your raise, however, you have to be thinking he must have a pair here, and is afraid you are sandbagging trips or a bigger pair.

Betting the river for value is questionable. It's true there is some chance you have him beat, especially if he holds a hand that beat you pre-flop like AK, AQ, AJ. But There are many hands that still beat you, like TT, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA. He will have a hard time calling you with something like AK high on the river and an easy call if his pair beats the high card on the board (in this case the ten). I would expect your river bet to be called by a better hand more frequently than it is called by a worse hand, especially since you raised the turn and were called.
Therefore, I probably would just check it down on the river, unless another ten fell.

Him check raising you on the river tells could mean one of three things. A) He is sandbagging a monster B) he cant beat your hand by just calling or betting (i.e. he is bluffing) C) He now realizes with the third seven falling that it is more likely for you to be holding the Ten and not the case 7 and has decided his hand is good and wants to punish you for making him sweat this hand on the turn.

No matter which case, raising is bad in all three circumstances. You will be raising a better hand who will call your raise and will probably re-raise you, or raising a hand you had beaten (a bluff) that cant call your raise so you wont win anymore money.

Calling is ok, if you think there is good chance his is check-raise bluffing. Since the pot is being contested heads-up there is a greater than usual chance of this occuring. However, given your aggressive stance on the turn, I dont think a player would consider this line because he expects you to call. My guess is that, given all factors in this hand, situation C has arisen. Your opponent holds a pair higher than TT and has realized you are betting the ten and not the case 7. But since you made the original bet, I would not fold to the check-raise because the pot now is very big and hold a hand that could still win often enough for a call to be correct.

I hate folding your hand on the river for the following reasons: the pot is huge, you hold a full house with the top pair on board, your opponent could be check-raise bluffing in desparation, you threw the original bet out to begin with when you could have checked it down. I usually wont make a bet on the river if I cant call a raise unless I'm bluffing. In this case, you are not bluffing. You mistakingly tried to get a value bet in a situation where it is unlikely for an opponent to call you with something worse, and have opened yourself up to either a check-raise value bet or a check-raise bluff, either of which you cant be sure. Three-betting the river I feel, is like last ditch desperation.. You want to beat this guy, you hold a full house, but your instincts are telling you it's not good enough.

I know I'm going to catch hell for saying this, but to me the way you played this hand is typical of beginner's play, although I dont mean that in a derogatory way and please dont be offended by that. From your other posts, you seem to be a much more experienced player than me. However, in this hand, I think you are playing too aggressively against an early position raiser with a marginal hand. You hit your ten and end up trapping yourself in the hand for a lot of bets??? I'm sorry if I'm sounding inflated or lofty. Perhaps I missed something in the OP. Maybe you just have a good read on this guy and want to punish him for bad play.

However, all this being said, I still would have folded this hand most of the time pre-flop in early position, even against a donkey. All the subsequent errors in the hand just compound that initial error.

best of luck
-J

WillMagic

11-19-2005, 08:20 AM

I've been sitting here for ten minutes trying to find value in the river three-bet. I can't see it. Is this guy a total donkey? Because the stats don't give me that picture. He's seriously going to check-raise this river and call a three-bet with a nine or a small pair? Significantly more often than he'll have randomly picked up quads, or JJ/QQ?

I really don't see it.

The rest of the hand is fine.

Will

11-19-2005, 09:17 AM

You have to be very sure he caps JJ+ for this to be a good play on the river. He is probably raising A9,K10,Q10s or something. But you only beat a 9.. Seems very thin to me.

elindauer

11-19-2005, 11:18 AM

Hi JJNJustin,

Fantastic analysis. Very well thought out. I think the preflop 3-bet is closer than you are giving credit, but your thoughts on the river 3-bet are great. I agree that this is too aggressive.

I'm a little more inclined than you to value bet the T though. The OP's "history of aggression" with the villain may well have the villain calling down here with only ace high, any 9 or a lower pocket pair.

good luck.
eric

elindauer

11-19-2005, 11:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Against most LAGs this is a WA/WB situation on the last card.

[/ QUOTE ]

very funny. Now, could you tell me a player type where, after the river is dealt, you are not way ahead or way behind? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

B Dids

11-19-2005, 12:58 PM

This seems pretty simply on the river. If he caps JJ+ in this spot (or otherwise slows down to your turn play fearing a 7 or a straight) you call the river.

Preflop seems iffy, but having the button is kinda awesome, so rock on.

jason_t

11-19-2005, 01:03 PM

It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

imported_anacardo

11-19-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see little difference between the value of a flat call and a reraise preflop, without further information about the blinds. Merely different plans of attack, enticing a multiway pot vs. isolation. Folding seems not terrible, but certainly not preferable, given your man's raising range.

Flop seems like a gimme.
Turn seems like a gimme.
River is between a bet/call of the raise and a three-bet and call cap. As previously stated, I'd generally prefer keeping the river to two bets, but that's a strongly opponent-dependent decision. What does HE think of YOU? Depending on the kinds of hands you've shown down in the past, does he think there's any chance that you'll fold for one bet on the river here? Is he a mindless brute LAG (doesn't sound like it), or is he at least something of a sophisticated player? "Sophisticated" meaning something as goofy as slowplaying kings or something to this point, in classic LAG fashion. Assuming you decide to isolate preflop rather than cold-call (I haven't got nearly enough information to talk about the latter situation,) I take the same line up until the river, where I prefer a call to a threebet. (If you came looking for a multivariable mathetmatical analysis, you came to the wrong place. Nerds. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif)

DrewOnTilt

11-19-2005, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against most LAGs this is a WA/WB situation on the last card.

[/ QUOTE ]

very funny. Now, could you tell me a player type where, after the river is dealt, you are not way ahead or way behind? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL very true, that's what I get for trying to post on little sleep. What I meant was, I am comfortable that we are ahead here, but I would be hesitant to 3-bet. Maniacs do get good hands on occasion.

Alexthegreat

11-19-2005, 02:09 PM

There is some bad advice from some people on this thread regarding the river....Hero doesn't beat a worse ten.

I don't see much in 3-betting the river....What is he calling with on the turn that he is check raising on the river??
He must think you are just trying to take the pot away on the turn if he is raising with a 9 or PP, but wouldn't he rather 3-bet the turn and try to end the hand??

Or lead the river so you don't check it down??

Obviously you can answer these questions much better than I can,

but if he is paying attention and doesn't suck bad, (maybe this is a stretch) I just call the river raise

Entity

11-19-2005, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi JJNJustin,

Fantastic analysis. Very well thought out. I think the preflop 3-bet is closer than you are giving credit, but your thoughts on the river 3-bet are great. I agree that this is too aggressive.

I'm a little more inclined than you to value bet the T though. The OP's "history of aggression" with the villain may well have the villain calling down here with only ace high, any 9 or a lower pocket pair.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Eric,

I'd be curious what you think his full range is here on the river for the checkraise. Just from general observations and trying to remember what a 31/16/2.1 player plays like (that seems passive to me now /images/graemlins/smile.gif), I think his river c/r range is something like the following:

JJ,99-88,66,ATs-A9s,KTs-K9s,QTs,ATo. These are all reasonable I think given his PFR range, though K9s might be pushing it. Jason didn't mention whether he's folding to a 4-bet or if he's capable of it, but I think we've got value for a 3-bet here if we can feel ok folding to a 4-bet, and we don't have enough value otherwise. Even if I include A7s and 87s into his UTG raising range, we're still ahead > 55%. If we're up against someone who caps indiscriminately on the river here, I don't like it though.

Rob

27offsooot

11-19-2005, 02:30 PM

read eyore's response and a bunch of people just criticizing that post, but not a ton of analysis other than nh.

So...
PF: How big was the table? If this is SH, 3 bet is easy. If this is full ring and his PFR is position adjusted, then i don't like the three bet. If he's one of those, "raise when I feel like it, but limp-re-raise my good hand" kind of donkeys then I like the three bet. Unfortunately, a 16 PFR can mean a whole lot. You say u have a long history, but need to say something about his tendencies.

Flop: His bet could mean a whole lot. I don't like raising because i think u get three bet a lot. And folding would be bad, so flop looks good.

Turn is also good.

River: I don't really get this c/r by villain. He should three bet the turn with a 7. But i really don't see a bluff on this board given that he's sane and the aggression u've shown. Your turn raise is very strong on this board. He's not calling a three bet with ace high, so u have to hope to get paid off by a wierdly played 9 or smaller pocket pair. You also have to call a cap, but u're behind a huge percent of the time when he does cap. He could also have been getting cute with AA/ KK/ QQ PF and then thought u might have a 7 for some reason and then thought it less likely for whatever on the river. In summation, I don't like the river because u will have to pay off a cap of a better hand and I don't think there are enough hands that u'll get value from.

bobhalford

11-19-2005, 04:56 PM

I kind of like it. But I wouldn't play it this way because I would have to call a cap on the river so I just call hoping to chop the pot or win, and hope not to see AA/KK/KK/TT or a 7. His checkraise on the river looks strong, and I would have to respect it.

The play does do something for enhancing your table image though.

elindauer

11-19-2005, 08:56 PM

I didn't think about his hand range too much, I just noted that your hand is pretty well defined, and we are chopping with weaker tens, so a raise is, in my mind, a hope that our opponent is just terrible.

Let's use your range though:

[ QUOTE ]
JJ,99-88,66,ATs-A9s,KTs-K9s,QTs,ATo.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I notice that you don't think it's possible he has a 7. Ok. Also, I note that you think he's check-raising 88 and 66. Hmmm. I don't know about that. Why would he do that? Finally, you think it's impossible that he has a pair higher than jacks. I agree they should be discounted, but everybody mixes it up with aces at least, don't they? LAGs are notorious for getting tricky with big hands. But ok, moving on...

combinations that beat us:

JJ: 6
99: 4

for 10 combos.

combinations we beat:

88: 6
66: 6
A9s: 3

So it's 3:2 in our favor. Now, that's making some pretty bold assumptions about him check-raising with hands weaker than a T that I'm not comfortable with personally. Even if we give it full credit, raising and folding to a cap against a player who is capable of check-raising 66 here is dangerous, no? If you are comfortable that

a) he will frequently check-raise 88 and 66 and A9s
b) he will pay off with these hands
c) he will not cap them

then yeah, go ahead and 3-bet/fold. Personally, I'm not comfortable with any of these assumptions, so I just call.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if I include A7s and 87s into his UTG raising range, we're still ahead > 55%. If we're up against someone who caps indiscriminately on the river here, I don't like it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Barely, and we open the possibility of being capped. Remember, your 55% figure gives full value to all the weakest hands in his range always check-raising the river. This is a major assumption.

-Eric

RolfSlotboom

11-19-2005, 10:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, you might be behind 3 sevens so why on earth would you raise? You cant beat trips with this hand. I would probably call for my image but then fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.cardplayer.com/uploads/authors/slotboom.jpg
I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I confirm this.

lighterjobs

11-19-2005, 11:18 PM

I think the fact that he didn't three bet the turn tells you he doesn't have an overpair or a seven.

i think 99% (this has to be accurate) of lags would three bet the turn if they had either of those hands.

PokerSparky

11-19-2005, 11:38 PM

Preflop is close IMO. If this is 6 max I 3 bet; full ring I may fold this since the raise came from UTG and if villain has any sense of position he probably has a hand here.

I just call the river raise. You showed you had at least a pair of tens by raising the turn, so when he checkraises the river, I start to think you're beat or chopping.

ellipse_87

11-20-2005, 12:21 AM

Regarding the river:

He has a history of hands in which he's seen you be aggressive. So he's harboring some suspicion of your turn-raise--you may just have overs, he's thinking. Now the river comes and you make a move consistent with a bluff: you bet instead of checking behind. So, the thing is, with what worse hands does he respond to a possible bluff with a raise-call as opposed to a raise-fold? It's possible he has missed overs and wants to fold your 66/88/X9. And, if he's one of those players who "notices things" too much, then maybe he'll call with AQ like a knucklehead.

So in short I think the 3-bet is in order if this is that type of player who, once he gets the idea in his head that he's being pushed out by a bluff, clings to that idea notwithstanding the texture of later streets.

I personally discount him calling with a 9 pretty strongly, because not many hands containing a 9 are raising UTG, except 99 which beats us.

gh9801

11-20-2005, 12:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG. I 3-bet A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif otb. He calls.

The flop is 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
He bets and I call.

The turn is T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
He bets and I raise.

The river is 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif
He checks, I bet, he raises, I 3-bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why there are some people praising this hand. I really don't like it. Is everyone banking on Villain having a hand like A9 or worse here? With the river c/r (after Hero raises the turn), Villain has the ten or better here most of the time. Just because he's LAG doesn't mean he has [censored] here 100% of the time.

imagine this hand from LAG's point of view:

Ok, I have pocket aces. I raise UTG. Some douche is threebetting me! HAHA! I'm not going to cap because it's heads up and I'm going to trick him... TEehee.

Ah [censored], the flop has a pair on it. I'll donk the flop to uhh try to figure out if he has a 7 or not. Ok he didn't raise the flop. I'll bet the turn again. WTF, he raises? Ok he might have a 7. I completely neglecting he's TAG and it's unlikely he has a 7 in this spot, but since I'm a stupid LAG I don't notice these things so I'll play scared because of the 7. I call. River is a 7. Nice. Odds are he doesn't have quads. Probably a worse full house. I'll c/r.

The main problem is that Hero raised on the turn, showing a lot of strength, and Villain STILL c/r'd on the river. I think threebetting is spewing here.

As for preflop, I think folding is fine. So is calling. So is raising. The difference in EV is so little that it probably doesn't matter.

gaming_mouse

11-20-2005, 02:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that PF argument is a red herring.

I hate the river 3bet, and am shocked that Rob said you played this fine.

Your oppo either:

1) has a high PP
2) has a PP lower than tens
3) is bluffing

In case 3) your 3bet has no value. In case 2) your 3bet has value only if this guy sucks. In case 1) you're throwing away money. I really don't get it.

bugstud

11-20-2005, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that PF argument is a red herring.

I hate the river 3bet, and am shocked that Rob said you played this fine.

Your oppo either:

1) has a high PP
2) has a PP lower than tens
3) is bluffing

In case 3) your 3bet has no value. In case 2) your 3bet has value only if this guy sucks. In case 1) you're throwing away money. I really don't get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

most nutty lags aren't folding ace high if they've checkraised with it on the river, fwiw. So if he's doing something like that 3) is possible. I also seriously think that he might have a straight here. That all said, calling the river looks best, and that's the only street I have any qualms about. If we were in MP, it's another story. On the button, it's a clear play imo.

gaming_mouse

11-20-2005, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]

most nutty lags aren't folding ace high if they've checkraised with it on the river, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

how do the numbers jason gave imply nutty LAG?

bugstud

11-20-2005, 02:33 AM

yeah I suck at reading and/or poker.

gh9801

11-20-2005, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many LAGs understand position. This LAG doesn't seem that insane so especially since he opened from UTG I'd give him some respect. He only raises ~3% more hands than I do preflop. AdTd doesn't beat [censored] which I open with from UTG. I actually think I fold here

SackUp

11-20-2005, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that PF argument is a red herring.

I hate the river 3bet, and am shocked that Rob said you played this fine.

Your oppo either:

1) has a high PP
2) has a PP lower than tens
3) is bluffing

In case 3) your 3bet has no value. In case 2) your 3bet has value only if this guy sucks. In case 1) you're throwing away money. I really don't get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there definitely needs to be a fourth option of him having a 9, which makes me like the river 3 bet a lot more.

I make this play with A10s against lags a decent amount of times and I don't have a problem with it at all. Obviously player dependent, but this guy seems fine to do it against.

River is fine. Idiots try to make moves with crap and will still call with crap. He will call with as little as A high at times, though I agree this is a stretch given the numbers. Still we have lower PP, 9s and 10s that are doing this and only a bigger PP and a 7 that we are losing too which I don't think is likely given the slow down on the turn.

SackUp

11-20-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
31/16/2.1 who I have a long history of aggression with opens UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many LAGs understand position. This LAG doesn't seem that insane so especially since he opened from UTG I'd give him some respect. He only raises ~3% more hands than I do preflop. AdTd doesn't beat [censored] which I open with from UTG. I actually think I fold here

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think LAGs understand position at all. Otherwise their stats would not be what they are. 31/16 is a large range which is much larger than your 18/13 stats or whatever they are.

gaming_mouse

11-20-2005, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think there definitely needs to be a fourth option of him having a 9, which makes me like the river 3 bet a lot more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if I grant you A9s, and I think it's a slight stretch, that only adds 3 combos to hands we have value against.

We're chopping with another T, so no value there. Basically, do you think that he has a lower PP or 9 MORE often than he has a higher PP? Saying there is a chance he will call here with A high is absurd based on these numbers.

ellipse_87

11-20-2005, 03:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Saying there is a chance he will call here with A high is absurd based on these numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not the numbers, but rather OP's having firmly established an aggro image in villain's eyes, which opens up villain's calling range here.

Not that this necessarily makes the raise correct, just that this isn't "some" LAG. It's a specific LAG who is inherently distrustful of OP.

Sintax

11-20-2005, 03:58 AM

I don't frequent this forum much, so maybe theres some inside joke going over my head because I can't imagine there being so many 2+2ers who think this hand was well played.

The preflop raise was bad. Not even close. 16% PFR is loose, but its not like 30% or 50% looseness You are way behind him with the majority of hands he could be raising with. (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ). You will rarely be ahead with when he holds (Ax, KT, QT, JT) and you are about a coinflip to the rest of his hands (KQ, KJ, 99-xx, etc).

Anyway, isolating an opponent in an empty pot with what looks to be a dominated or behind hand is BAD. Cold calling a raise here is even worse than raising. Folding is your only play.

Aside from a flush or a couple of tens, I don't know what you're hoping to flop in this situation. If an Ace does come, hes not going to be very agressive with his KK-QQ-JJ-TT etc, and hes going to cost you a lot with his AK, AQ, AJ.

This is a bad flop for you. It did not improve your hand any. If you were already behind before the flop, you're further behind now. If you were ahead, youre still only slightly ahead and could be behind. A hand you dominated preflop like JT, now has 7 outs, youre about drawing dead to A7, and only have three outs to A9.

If he only has a small pair (smaller then 7's), then you have a good 6 outs, plus additional outs when the board pairs again and counterfeits him, this is your best situation against his possible holdings. Given that you inflated the pot early and its now 8.5 bets, calling is ok. What you are really hoping to see is an 8 or a diamond to give you a strong backdoor draw.

I agree with the turn raise, but probably for different reasons. The ten is a decent card for you at best. You might be ahead, but a hand that you actually beat preflop and were hoping you were against, like QJ or KQ, has 14 outs now. I would estimate, that with the combination of times you are dominated or beaten already by legit hands, you only have around 40% equity in this pot. Folding is not an option, so I like raising here, not for value, but for a free showdown, or to gain an extra bet the times when I river another ten or an Ace (because I now reverse dominate any of his AK, AQ, AJ holdings). At least there are no backdoor flushes to make things worse for you.

Three betting this river after being check raised is easily the worst and most expensive mistake in this entire hand. After raising the turn, either call if he bets, or check behind on almost any card. A weaker ten or mid pair are the only hands you could bet for value. The 7 eliminates the weaker ten, so now you are only value betting against 88, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22 assuming he would even call with one of those hands. The threat of a checkraise kills any value period. There is no reason to bet this river.

PokerBob

11-20-2005, 04:11 AM

McGahee

11-20-2005, 04:18 AM

This thread has a serious bandwagon/frontrunning vibe to it.

milesdyson

11-20-2005, 04:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This thread has a serious bandwagon/frontrunning vibe to it.

[/ QUOTE ]
100% stadnard

gaming_mouse

11-20-2005, 04:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]

why? is he really folding a better hand? i doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm fairly sure jason is doing it for value, not to fold a better hand. however, there isn't actually enough value to justify it, IMO, for reasons I explained above.

DeathDonkey

11-20-2005, 06:33 AM

I pretty much disagree with this entire post. I also think you played it well Jason.

-DeathDonkey

brettbrettr

11-20-2005, 06:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I've been sitting here for ten minutes trying to find value in the river three-bet. I can't see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is my thought. Otherwise, seems fine to me.

me454555

11-20-2005, 12:36 PM

Since when did AJs become an insta 3bet against a LAG UTG raise. I may or may not be a 3 bet but its definatly not insta anything. AQs is a pretty clear 3 bet to me pf, AJs I can don't mind playing it either way but I prolly lean toward folding even though he's got a 16% pfr. UTG raises are just no fun to play and if you look at his range of hands, your either a slight favorite or a huge dog. I can think of maybe 1 hand (ATs) where your a significant favorite). To that end I just can't 3 bet w/ATs b/c I can't figure out what hand your ahead of. On top of that if you flop an ace, how are you going to play it? Are you going to be able to get away from it HU against a lag, HELL NO!!! Your going to showdown with it b/c he's a lag and the problem with that is that you'll be dominated a lot.

The flop peel is fine b/c you've got overs that may be good and 2 bd draws.

I'm not sure I like the turn raise b/c he's either got an overpair or Ax and drawing to 3 outs so your likely to get 3 bet or get him to fold a hand correctly, not good options IMHO.

River, I just call the c/r and echo the thougts of others. You're 3 bet doesn't have much value as I think theres a good chance your behind or splitting the pot and he's not folding AT. If he bluffed the c/r he's folding to your 3 bet so it doesn't have much value