Betting for value or stupidity?

[ajm36]

I really suck at math. Is this how I should be playing flush and straight draws? What if I was the button instead of BB. What if this hand is K7 or Q7? How many callers do I need to make this profitable. Would capping this flop be out of line? What if I did not have a pair?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP3 calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls.

[ArturiusX]

Think of this way; you're probably ahead, and if you're not, you have a ton of outs.

That usually means you should get bets in the pot.

[milesdyson]

?

if your equity is larger than the fraction of the bets you're putting into the pot on the flop, then you should bet/raise.

preflop is marginal, depending on the table i probably lean towards just checking there though.

flop is perfect, nut flush, MP, and bdsd

i dont think you have the equity to do more than check/call the turn though, although its marginal so if you believe you have fold equity here then go for it.

imo both preflop and turn are fairly neutral in terms of ev

[Mathieu]

the 3 bet on the flop has value against 3 callers since you have such a strong draw. With just a flush draw I would not push it so hard when out of position against only 3 players. When in position your raise could be for value and for a free turn card.

On the turn, betting does not have so much value and it would suck to get raised. So I don't mind checking since I think it is unlikely that the flop raiser will fold a better hand and I think we are usually behind here.

[Mathieu]

[ QUOTE ]
imo both preflop and turn are fairly neutral in terms of ev

[/ QUOTE ]

We have to raise this preflop vs a middle position limper, a poster who checked, and the small blind. We likely have the best hand and preflop equity edge. We need to push this, even out of position.

*grunch*

I like the 3 bet on the flop, your flush draw comes in %35 of the time by the river, so with 3 players you're getting a little value there.

I also like the turn bet, as you may have made MP1 fold an A with a bad kicker or KJ. I'd play it the same.

[Aaron W.]

Preflop check is okay, raising is okay. I would usually just take a flop.

Pumping the flop is good. I don't know how much betting the turn actually does for you. I'd really hate to get raised by MP1 or MP3.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
imo both preflop and turn are fairly neutral in terms of ev

[/ QUOTE ]

We have to raise this preflop vs a middle position limper, a poster who checked, and the small blind. We likely have the best hand and preflop equity edge. We need to push this, even out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,041,969 games 51.125 secs 215,979 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.4466 % 20.34% 01.11% { random }
Hand 2: 21.4587 % 20.36% 01.10% { random }
Hand 3: 21.4724 % 20.37% 01.10% { random }
Hand 4: 35.6222 % 34.38% 01.24% { KsTs }

we are only 35% even against 3 random hands, this situation is worse

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,041,969 games 51.125 secs 215,979 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.4466 % 20.34% 01.11% { random }
Hand 2: 21.4587 % 20.36% 01.10% { random }
Hand 3: 21.4724 % 20.37% 01.10% { random }
Hand 4: 35.6222 % 34.38% 01.24% { KsTs }

we are only 35% even against 3 random hands, this situation is worse

[/ QUOTE ]

35% equity is a 10% equity edge. How much worse is it when you have a limper and a SB completion? I wouldn't think it's that much.

Also, people around here like to pump flush draws with only a 2% equity edge. There's also an effect of villains' failure to raise implying that you're probably *NOT* up against premium hands. This tends to increase your equity somewhat (as you don't run into domination by AK or KQ as often).

[Mathieu]

I am pleased with these numbers, and I agree that the situation looks pretty much just as good as against random hands. This does not say much for the opponents /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Anyways, whenenever I get a situation like this, I think of how strongly Ed Miller advocates raising the big suited cards in this spot (ie. vs weak hands).

I guess it would be different if a rock had limped utg or something.

[ QUOTE ]
I also like the turn bet, as you may have made MP1 fold an A with a bad kicker

[/ QUOTE ]
I remember the last time I saw someone at a Party .5/1 table fold a paired ace with a weak kicker...2002, I think.

For the OP, betting out the turn is fine here because you might actually be ahead. But this epidemic of leading the turn with nothing but a flush draw is the scourge of our college campuses.

[ QUOTE ]

Pumping the flop is good. I don't know how much betting the turn actually does for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

seems fine imo.

[rgb]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know how much betting the turn actually does for you. I'd really hate to get raised by MP1 or MP3.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the chance of being ahead + outs + (slight) chance of folding a better hand (e.g. Ax, KJ) I think a turn bet is OK.

Also, if someone else has a FD, the deceptive value of a bet on the turn could get you paid off big time with a river /images/graemlins/spade.gif (MP3 looks a likely candidate).

I don't think you get raised here very often. Since hero raised PF, they have to fear AA, KK &amp; AK given the flop action.


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