(11) KQ bubble push?

could i have played this better? should i have folded and played for third with the two short stacks there?

Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Friday, November 18, 19:22:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 68007 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: joebrone ( $867 )
Seat 3: MissAA78 ( $5031 )
Seat 4: runninhot111 ( $842 )
Seat 8: Zbeldino ( $1260 )
Trny:17525292 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Zbeldino [ Qc Kd ]
runninhot111 folds.
Zbeldino is all-In [1260]
joebrone folds.
MissAA78 calls [1110].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, 3c, Jc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
MissAA78 shows [ Ah, Jh ] three of a kind, jacks.
Zbeldino shows [ Qc, Kd ] a pair of jacks.
MissAA78 wins 2595 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, jacks.
Zbeldino finished in fourth place.
Zbeldino has left the table.

[FlyWf]

Folding isn't playing for third, but yes, fold. Outside of a read, no way the BB is tight enough to make this +$EV. The odds are pretty good that SB pushes this hand and/or the big stack pushes into UTG next hand. Let that work itself out.

[pineapple888]

The short stacks aren't that much shorter than you. The real problems are

1.) You have over 8 BB, so you have some time.
2.) You are pushing into the big stack.
3.) KQo really isn't all that great in this situation (dog to all Aces and pairs.)

Foldarooni.

[playtitleist]

No way this is a fold. It's way +EV even at the tightest ranges for SB and Biggie. SB can't call you with anything less than the top 10%. And so what if Biggie calls you? How often does he wake up with a hand that we are underdog to? Rarely.

Biggie is going to be in the mix pretty much every hand from here on out. If ever the cards dictate your play, this is it.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
No way this is a fold. It's way +EV even at the tightest ranges for SB and Biggie. SB can't call you with anything less than the top 10%. And so what if Biggie calls you? How often does he wake up with a hand that we are underdog to? Rarely.

Biggie is going to be in the mix pretty much every hand from here on out. If ever the cards dictate your play, this is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, where do I start here?

It's the bubble. Chips you win are worth much less than chips you lose.

Your >8BB are at risk to win 1.5BB.

Big stack's typical range (most pairs, most aces) is likely to be exactly what you don't want. You're either a dog or big stack is folding.

[playtitleist]

[ QUOTE ]

Big stack's typical range (most pairs, most aces) is likely to be exactly what you don't want. You're either a dog or big stack is folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we are going to differ on this till the grave, but I don't believe this is the case.

In any event, I actually DO want the t225 here because I want to keep the other shorties covered at all costs, and there is certainly no gaurantee I will find a better situation than this.

[sng-sam]

I like the fold here.

A: I don't like pushing into the chip leader
B: If I wait one of the shorties will make a play and likely get nailed. If you had 999 or less I would push.


Straight Flushes,

SAM

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]

B: If I wait one of the shorties will make a play and likely get nailed. If you had 999 or less I would push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Another very good point, especially at the 11s. Just chill for a cycle or two, and somebody will very likely do something stupid, which will help those not in the hand (i.e., you).

[ QUOTE ]
No way this is a fold. It's way +EV even at the tightest ranges for SB and Biggie. SB can't call you with anything less than the top 10%. And so what if Biggie calls you? How often does he wake up with a hand that we are underdog to? Rarely.

Biggie is going to be in the mix pretty much every hand from here on out. If ever the cards dictate your play, this is it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just barely +$EV if BB is only calling top 7% and SB top 3%. If BB is calling top 12% (down to middle aces and big kings) this is solidly -$EV.

The key here is that big stack doesn't have to call with hands that are ahead of you now in order to beat you, he's going to beat you on the order of 1/3 of the time when he calls you with a worse hand. And even when it's -$EV for him to call you, he'll often do it because people with stacks that can't be hurt by a call will call just to bust you.

If you don't have to, don't mess with the big stack.

You guys know there is an option to limp.

Anyways, I dont like the push here, like everyone else has said. You're pushing into the chip leader with chips to manuever and two stacks shorter than you.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys know there is an option to limp.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and I hope the other three players use it frequently.

[pokerlaw]

i fold w/o much thought.

[Scuba Chuck]

The answer to this is really based on your read. If bigstack is super tight, meaning he's only calling most pairs, and AT+, then a push here is correct. But my default "read" with uber stacks like this, is that they are donkeys, so they are not so tight. Thus, I prefer, and think it's correct, to fold this hand here.