i don't even want this draw anymore (broadway vs. possible full house)

[bigalt]

Pokerroom 2/4 (9 handed)

MP3 is new.
SB is a little fishy, I'd seen him call down a few hands where I had no idea what he had (pokerroom doesn't show mucked cards). stats 21/3/.5

Hero's got Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,K/images/graemlins/heart.gif


4 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, CO folds, hero RAISES, SB 3-BETS, BB folds, MP3 calls, hero calls.

FLOP (3 players, 8.5 SB): J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif,4/images/graemlins/heart.gif,10/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB BETS, MP3 calls, hero RAISES, SB RAISES, MP3 calls, hero CAPS, SB calls, MP3 calls.

since SB was a little timid I was thinking I'm getting even-ish money on my raise and I might buy a free card. When it didn't work the first time I thought it might the second.

TURN (3 players, 10 BB): 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SB checks, MP3 BETS, hero calls, SB RAISES, MP3 calls, hero calls

When I see the 4 drop, I'm thinking that SB filled up. But he doesn't bet? AND MP3 is waking up? I was utterly confused, grimacing and calling 1 bet for the draw I don't even particularly want to hit, and then stuck for another. Would have gladly folded for two either time.

RIVER (3 players, 16 BB): A/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB BETS, MP3 calls, hero calls

I would rather have seen the 9, but I figure the ace is worth an overcall. Though the best case at this point SB has KK and MP3 doesn't know what's going on.

[krimson]

SB stats are very passive, so I think you're looking at JJ+ AK when he 3-bets out of the sb.

Given this, I really don't like your flop play. Your not getting equity on your raises, and the chance that sb lets you take a free card with anything other than AK here is slim as well. Your overcard outs are heavily tainted.

When sb c/r's the turn, I think the chance of him having JJ is phenomenal. Given that I would consider folding. Your basically 1:5 to make a hand that you don't really have any confidence in.

I would definitely just call this river.

I'd fold preflop. Villain is too tight passive to be 3-betting hands that KQ can beat or is even money with. This just isn't a profitable situation, even with MP3's money in there.

First flop raise is good as it will help you know whether villain is on big overs or a big pair. When he 3-bets the flop, the extremely passive player has let you know twice now that he's got something big, so almost always purely on the OESD (unless he has QQ). The cap is a mistake because your overcard outs are no good, and an OESD (with possibly two dirty outs, considering MP3's line so far) doesn't have an equity edge against only two opponents.

Once the board pairs on the turn, the SB checks suspiciously after showing a bunch of PF and flop aggression, and MP3 donks, the case for continuing is very slim. I doubt that even cleanly completing an OESD gives you the best hand often enough even with the large pot odds.

SB's C/R on the turn makes the pot so big on the river that a nut straight has to call hoping SB just got drunk recently.

[bobbyi]

The two replies so far don't like the flop cap. I think the flop cap is way right. No one is folding so you are getting 2:1 on your money here and you are protected against a reraise so even if you are winning this pot slightly less than a third of the time, that is hardly relevant because it's close enough that the immediate cost of the cap is a very very small fraction of a bet. You clearly don't have the best hand right now and most of the time you would love a free card on the turn. The SB is a timid and fishy 2/4 player so it is unlikely he is going to bet into you on the turn after you cap the flop with something like QQ. With top set, he might try for a check-raise and you get a free card then too. This cap buys you a free card often at very little (if any cost). This is a straightforward and clearcut play, in my opinion.

[hobbsmann]

nice river call. Given how passive sb blind is you are up against a full a lot, but with a huge pot, the chance sb is over playing two pair, and other guy padding the pot you've got to showdown.

[krimson]

Actually, my argument was not against the cap, but against the initial flop raise. Given villian's range, I think he is coming back with a 3-bet too often (by TT/JJ/KK/AA). Once he comes back with 3, I definitely prefer the cap, since it can't be reraised, and likely buys us a free turn.

I don't think we are getting value on these raises, considering how tainted our K and Q outs are, and that some oesd outs may give a flush. Add a 4th player in there, and I raise for value.

I think we get to the river cheapest by being a passive calling station here.

[bigalt]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, my argument was not against the cap, but against the initial flop raise. Given villian's range, I think he is coming back with a 3-bet too often (by TT/JJ/KK/AA).

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course as soon as he 3-bet I regretted raising, but I've been finding it so easy to buy myself free cards, whether it be because they think my hand is better or whether they're going to go for a turn check-raise (which it seems like SB was going to). A lot of these passive guys at this level rarely 3-bet until the turn or even the river when they know their hand is good. But I'll be the first to admit that I overuse the free card/free showdown gambit, and I do end up charging myself a lot extra for a draw sometimes.

Given the flop action, can I ditch the hand on the turn? If so, the flop raise may have been worthwhile just for that privilege.

I have no idea what MP3's bet means there. If I assumed that SB was just going to call behind me (which I did) then I needed <40%-ish chance that the house was already there to draw. Does the check-raise really mean I can drop it for the second bet?

I really didn't want to pay 3BB to showdown a hand I wasn't enthusiastic about, but wasn't sure if I could drop it.

[krimson]

My decision to not raise this for a free card is based on villian's pre-flop statistics. He only raises 3% of his hands, which means his 3-bet from the sb should be taken fairly seriously. Given his likely range (JJ-AA most likely, also TT or AK), the chances of the free card failing I think are pretty high. Against a more regular opponent, I would raise here.

We kind of get sucked into the hand on the turn. Admittedly, I would play the turn/river the same, but I think folding to the sb's c/r on the turn would be a smart move. At that point it's almost a sure thing he has JJ or TT.