Headsup SNG: Flop nut flush draw

[pottie]

Chips stacks: Hero 1630, Villain 1370

Villain has been playing solid.

Villain SB 15; Hero BB 30, Villain completes, I check.
Hero A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Flop 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Action to Hero. What is my plan here?

The actual hand went like this, Hero bet pot 60, Villain raises 150 to 210, Hero pushes

I think you played it correctly. You're a very slight dog against his calling range; throw in any fold equity, and bet/pushing seems like the best play to me.

[Snarf]

I'd like the push if you had Ad5d and the flop had two diamonds... but I seem to think with the three flush on the board the push screams of the exact hand you have. Only the Ace of that suit. I'd probably call w/third pair. ...but thats me.

I read villian overbetting the pot as he is protecting his hand - he paired the 10, has two over cards, or an overpair. If you count A's as outs, you have 12 total which is pretty damn close to a coin flip. Heads up, I think a push is reasonable.

Assuming your opponent's calling range is any T, any two pair, and any set other than TT (he's unlikely to have many of these hands because he didn't raise, but I'll ignore that to assume a worst case scenario), you have 42% equity in the pot. So, when you get called, the EV of your stack is 3k *.42 + 260 * .58 = 1410.8 . When he folds, your stack is 1870.

Thus, the total EV is the play is (%F/100)(1870) + (1-%F/100)*1410.8 = (%F/100)459.2 + 1410.8 .

If you fold, you'll have 1540.

So, in order for this play to be better than folding, he only has to fold 28% of the time, and I made assumptions that seriously hurt your equity.

So, I think this play is obviously better than folding. You don't have correct pot odds to call. Against some opponents, a call might be best because they'll pay you off often when you hit. If your opponent is one of these players, a call is obvious. If you think raising a lesser amount here will get your opponent to check behind on most turns, do that (few opponents do this, IMHO). Also, if you think you'll be able to bluff some turns that don't help you successfully, you might consider doing that.

So, of course, this play's read dependent, but I don't think it's always wrong, and I think it can be frequently correct.

i think a push tells him you have a made flush (which you want) and wins you the pot right away.