was i too aggressive with these kings? [Archive]

View Full Version : was i too aggressive with these kings?

Adam22

11-18-2005, 02:16 AM

villain has tag stats

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

cpk

11-18-2005, 02:20 AM

stizzandard

einbert

11-18-2005, 02:21 AM

I think the way you played it is correct.

11-18-2005, 03:03 AM

Looks great. Villain realizes his AQs is no good on turn, crying calls river?

silkyslim

11-18-2005, 03:10 AM

this seems fine. so with the preflop, flop and turn action i put SB on AA, KK, AQ. thoughts on this range?

Adam22

11-18-2005, 04:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks great. Villain realizes his AQs is no good on turn, crying calls river?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're good. i was scared carpless he was going to flip over AA, thinking i had QQ.

Nick Royale

11-18-2005, 01:09 PM

I have to say I think all posters are wrong.

AA: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo (but I won't consider this since it's a split anyway and we're going to a sd here)
QQ: 3 combos
AQ: 6 combos (discounted from 12, OOP against a tag raising 2 players from MP3 3-betting AQ isn't such a good idea IMO)
JJ: 6 combos
TT: 3 combos (discounted from 6)
The chance of being up against KQ is compensated by the risk of villain holding 99.

When he check/raises the flop I think all of these hands still are likely. I think the standard tag is slightly more likely to do it with AQ than JJ/TT, while I'm more inclined to do it with JJ/TT. An argument could be made for going into WA/WB-mode, but I want to discuss this turn after a flop 3-bet first.

At the turn when he bets, which are his likely holdings? I would like to narrow it to AQ/AA/QQ. I somehow get the feeling this bet smells a little more like AQ being played in confusion than AA/QQ. But at the same time, overall, players are more likely to bet their strong holdings. And betting AQ would be a stupid thing to do and we're not dealing with a nutcase here. So if we're only looking at this from a hand distrubution perpective (I think that's the best way to evaluate this situation) we're only ahead 40% of the time here making a raise awfull.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s 3c

Hand 1: 33.2792 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 66.7208 % { AA, QQ, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]
And our equity is only ~33%.

Now to the going into WA/WB-mode on the flop. You could argue the 2 spades foils this that plan, but there's only one reasonable hand villain could hold giving him a fd (AQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif). I actually like going into WA/WB-mode, a better hand won't get the opportunty to cap or check/raise us on the turn, which would suck. Besides we earn more when he has JJ/TT:

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 89.6717 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 10.3283 % { JJ-TT }

[/ QUOTE ]
With x being the chance of him calling down with JJ/TT anyway:
2*2*0.9 - (8.5*2 + 2*2)*0.05 - (1 + 2*2)x = 2.55 - 5x
5x = 2.55 ---> x = 51%

Thus, if he folds JJ/TT more than 51% on the turn because we 3-betted the flop we'll make a profit against JJ/TT, which I believe a TAG will. This along with the fact that we're not in such a good shape on the flop as we might think (actually only 60% equity against the range of hands I have put him on) makes the calldown fro the flop check/raise to seem easy.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 60.0894 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 39.9106 % { AA, QQ-TT, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]

W. Deranged

11-18-2005, 01:48 PM

Adam,

I think the important thing here is to read the meaning of villain's turn donk-bet. There are a couple of possibilities:

1. Villain's turn donk-bet is free-card-blocking. Villain is probably good enough to realize that, with the spades there, you might be playing very aggressively on some kind of big draw, and really doesn't want to let the turn check through. Similarly, villain could be waiting to see a safe turn card before pressuring ahead.

This is the most likely reason in my opinion. (AA, AQ, and to a lesser degree TT and JJ, are the most likely hands using this line).

2. Villain is playing a creative flop-check-raise, turn-bet-three-bet line with a monster hand like QQ.

This is possible, but in my opinion this is a pretty creative, pretty expert line that even most tags wouldn't think of. It would require a very sound read on you, and resisting the urge to check-raise the turn. I think far more players with QQ would either check-raise the turn after the flop three-bet, or simply cap and lead.

A couple of other thoughts:

1. I don't particularly think a flop check-raise is indicative of JJ or TT, but I also don't think those hands are totally unlikely to check-raise either. This is where your table image would be nice to know. Villain may think you're a bit aggro or something, and may decide he wants to play his mid pocket pairs pretty fast and more or less commit to seeing showdown. Then again, he could think you're a rock and only play on with AA or QQ. Table image is important.

I don't know. This is a tough hand. I think raising the turn is fine, but I don't really like calling down a three-bet and a river bet. For that reason, I almost prefer calling the turn and raising the river, because I find it easier to fold to a three-bet there.

Nick Royale

11-18-2005, 02:03 PM

I really can't see how you find any value in raising the river against a tagish players here. I have to put him on AA/QQ/AQ/(KK). I don't think he's betting either the turn or river with JJ/TT but it seems you do. Even if he does that a small portion of the time JJ is now ahead. I've already posted my thoughts and the fact that I think raising the turn or river is bad stands.

einbert

11-18-2005, 02:30 PM

When I first read the hand I was extremely tired and gave a quick and dirty analysis in my mind before collapsing asleep. At that time I had a fairly strong suspicion that raising the turn was wrong. I think Nick Royale's analysis confirms that suspicion.

In any event the turn is probably pretty close between a raise and a call. But a call is probably better as Nick demonstrated mathematically.

W. Deranged

11-18-2005, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really can't see how you find any value in raising the river against a tagish players here. I have to put him on AA/QQ/AQ/(KK). I don't think he's betting either the turn or river with JJ/TT but it seems you do. Even if he does that a small portion of the time JJ is now ahead. I've already posted my thoughts and the fact that I think raising the turn or river is bad stands.

[/ QUOTE ]

My basic point is just that I think his turn bet is kind of strange, and though AA/AQ/QQ are certainly his most likely hands, a turn bet here is more consistent with AQ, JJ, and TT then anything else, as I think the standard plays for most players with AA or QQ would be different (I think players usually cap/lead turn with AA and check-raise turn with QQ).

It's certainly very close and I'm starting to think calling down after the turn bet may be better, but I'm really not sure. I'd love a better read.

sy_or_bust

11-18-2005, 02:52 PM

i'd call the turn. SB's lead will be followed by a 3-bet or fold a lot, both of which you probably dont want. the only hands that conceivably call the raise are maybe AQ and a poor AA (which he probably had). raising a non-scare card (JJ is not one) on the river is probably ok, though it deserves some math.

cpk

11-18-2005, 06:09 PM

I appreciate the thought you put into this post, but I think you're being too conservative in discounting AQ. Even if the possibilities are just AQ/QQ/AA/KK, that's still 12.5:9.5, which is a 57% edge. That makes raising razor-thin, but not wrong, as few people will fold any of these hands.

Just because you wouldn't play AQ in this way doesn't mean that everyone takes that approach. Lots of people do. And God bless them.

Nick Royale

11-18-2005, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the thought you put into this post

[/ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the thought you didn't put into this post as it might educate others.

[ QUOTE ]
but I think you're being too conservative in discounting AQ. Even if the possibilities are just AQ/QQ/AA/KK, that's still 12.5:9.5, which is a 57% edge. That makes raising razor-thin, but not wrong, as few people will fold any of these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need an equity >60% to raise and even if you consider the possibility of the tag raising AQ the same as him as him raising AA you don't get an equity greater than 60%. And assuming he'll reraise AQ as often as AA preflop is ridiculous. He has tagish stats and a good tag wouldn't 3-bet AQ.

[ QUOTE ]
Just because you wouldn't play AQ in this way doesn't mean that everyone takes that approach. Lots of people do. And God bless them.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's why I assume 50% of the tags still will 3-bet AQ here preflop even though it's wrong. I think that's an overestimate big enough.

Adam22

11-18-2005, 11:14 PM

as long as this thread's going, here's another one:

i am read/statless.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (14.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

Nick Royale

11-18-2005, 11:22 PM

I think calling down from the turn bet is the only way to go. Not because I'm worried about the 8s pairing, but I don't think the average player will lead this turn with Qs (and to make this raise profitable he will have to lead Js a large portion of the time).