Am I spewing?

[SossMan]

This is in the $50 rebuy at Bay101. $40+10 w/ unlimited $20 rebuys in the first hour and one $20 add on for double chips. I didn't win a hand in the rebuy period and was in for $210 with the minimum chips (2k) after my double rebuy and addon.

In the next level I play the following hands:

blinds: 100-200
UTG min-raises, two callers, I push 2k w/ AK, all fold.

Few hands later, I open in EP for t600 w/ AJ, all fold.

Few hands later I open in MP for t500 and Curly Haired thinking player (CHTP) makes it 2500 all fold to me. He has 2500 more and I have AQo and I fold face up.

Few hands later w/ blinds at 150-300, I raise a loose UTG limper w/ 22 to 1200. Decent BB w/ 2k total calls and limper folds.
Flop is A26r and I check behind, which surprises him. He pushes the J turn and I instacall and he is drawing dead and I pick up some more chips.

At this point I am now table chip leader.
I raise QJs after two limpers in the BB and only one scared one calls. I set him in on the flop of ATx and he instafolds.

Those are all the hands that I played postrebuy.

I have around 8k and CHTP is the only one close to me w/ about 7500.

Folded to me in the CO with an undominated hand and I raise 800. He quickly makes it 2400. Folded to me and I push. Thoughts?

[locutus2002]

I can't tell where CHTP is sitting (button or blind).
What does undominated hand mean?

[qbler]

If he's as smart as you're giving him credit for this probably isn't a bad play (hopefully he remembers that AQ you mucked). I'd like it better if you had any type of read suggesting that during this particular hand he was weak or trying to put a move on you. One thing I don't really like is going to war with the only other sizeable stack with rags (what I assume you meant by undominated hand) when it sounds like you were having a relatively easy time of punishing the rest of the table.

Is CHTP in the blind or on the button? If on the button, I'd say it's a good re-steal. If in the blind, scary, but I still think you'll get CHTP to fold often enough for this to be fine.

Someday I'll have the guts to try a resteal. ::sigh::

Nice hand.

-Gross

[Exitonly]

he's getting a bit better than 2:1, and he'll probably give you credit for AQs+AKo,JJ+, so he'd be right calling something like 44+, AQs+. which is like 7% of hands.. so what kind of range you think he'd raise you with?

i think you'd probably have to get him to fold 50% of the time for it to be good..and 'my gut' says he wont fold enough.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
What does undominated hand mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

two cards that probably don't add up to 15

Regards,
Woodguy

[ace_in_the_hole]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded to me in the CO with an UNDOMINATED HAND and I raise 800. He quickly makes it 2400. Folded to me and I push. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean AK? or AA?

[SossMan]

he's on the button. When I say 'thinking player' i mean that he probably takes the time to somewhat put me on a hand. I'm not saying that he's good, just compared to the other bozos down there that play he's Brunson. I'm fairly certain that he doesn't think about hand ranges, price, etc...if he doesn't have a 'good hand', he'll probably let it go. I'm guessing that he's calling w/ like AK maybe AQs and pairs down to the 99/TT range. I'm also assuming that given my previous hands and our recent history, he thinks that I'm pretty weak initially. This is, however, the first time I've made the 3rd move all day, though I'm not sure that he would be able to distinguish between first move aggressive and third move aggressive.

I had T7s, btw.

[woodguy]

If you hadn't of folded the AQ hand face up, I'd say you are spewing.

You say he is a thinking player, hopefully he's thinking of that. And hopefully he was thinking of that when he raised you, and was light.

I think you may get him to fold two big cards if they are not paired and not AK.

What's he re-raising range?

Looks like you played 5 hands in that level. How many (%) of the hands were you playing?

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hadn't of folded the AQ hand face up, I'd say you are spewing.

You say he is a thinking player, hopefully he's thinking of that. And hopefully he was thinking of that when he raised you, and was light.

I think you may get him to fold two big cards if they are not paired and not AK.

What's he re-raising range?

Looks like you played 5 hands in that level. How many (%) of the hands were you playing?

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

it was spread over a level and a half. I played a three or four in a row (AK,AQ,22, then a few hands later the QJs) and heard some grumbles, but I had been relatively quiet for about 8-10 hands or so (which is an eternity in BM time in that particular tourney)

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
If you hadn't of folded the AQ hand face up, I'd say you are spewing.

You say he is a thinking player, hopefully he's thinking of that. And hopefully he was thinking of that when he raised you, and was light.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I would count on that. Pseudo-thinking players, as I call them, may remember the laydown, but I think it comes after Soss makes the 3rd raise, not before it. I just don't see the tighter solid types in those tournaments going through the thought process of lessening their hand requirements for a raise because they might view you as weak tight. I guess I just think it might not get loosened enough to the point where you can safely assume a fold to a push.

What is more likely, IMO, is that he still raised with a good hand, but is more likely to remember the AQ fold AFTER the push, which might limit his hand range that he's going to call with, as he has to assume Soss is pushing with something better than AQ here.

All things considered, I think it's pretty marginal. But I don't make moves like this.

[MLG]

and here I thought this would be about your weight loss plan.

[woodguy]

i'm sorry about the 2 cards adding up to 15 comment, obviously T7 is well ahead of those. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I like what nolanfan had to say (you don't post here enough btw)

If he wasn't coming over the top of you since your laydown, he probably hasn't adjusted his re-raising range for you.

Tough one.

When it works its great, when it doesn't it hurts, but I don't think there is a good way of evaluating it without being at the table.

nolan's probably right that its probably thin though.

Regards,
Woodguy

I hate the idea of bluffing preflop giving someone better than 2:1 because it's really hard to fold getting those odds preflop. Also, you're putting in 6700 to bluff at a pot of ~1500, so you need a lot of equity.

I think call preflop, push any flop is much better (especially because of your AQo hand), although folding's the obvious play.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What is more likely, IMO, is that he still raised with a good hand, but is more likely to remember the AQ fold AFTER the push, which might limit his hand range that he's going to call with, as he has to assume Soss is pushing with something better than AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's about exactly where he's at. Exactly that type of player. He probably had a decent hand to reraise, but after I push, I think that he feels that I must have a bigger hand than AQ to make this play.

I think his raising range is something like:
AK-AT, KQ, maybe some lesser non-pair hand, pairs down to 8 or 9 prob.
His calling range is probably something like:
AK, AQ, TT+?. He prob folds 99 and calls JJ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

404,103,744 games 0.671 secs 602,241,049 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.1325 % 28.86% 00.27% { T7s }
Hand 2: 70.8675 % 70.60% 00.27% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


So I'm 30% against that range when he calls me.

88 - 6
99 - 6
TT - 3
QQ-AA - 18
AK - 16
AQ - 16
AJ - 16
AT - 16
KQ - 16
Total combos 113
10% bluffing ~10 more combos
123 total

He's calling w/ 54 or so of them.

Just to be conservative and for ease of math, let's say I get called half the time.

50% I win 450+800+2400 = 3650
+1825 ev
50% of the time I get called and:
70% of that time I lose an additional 6700 = .5*.7*-6700 = -2345 ev
30% of the 50% I win 450+800+7500 = 8750 * .3 * .5 = 1312 +ev

1312+1825-2345 = +ev ~800 chips or 10% of my stack.

If I was more confident of these ranges (they could be much looser, but probably not much tigher) than I like my play. Given that I might have misread his ability to lay down KQ or AJ or 88, this could be EV nuetral or even slightly negative. Given my chip position and control over the table, I think that it's a bit of a spew.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
and here I thought this would be about your weight loss plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, now that's funny.

I probably would have called CHTP with AQo. I don't think it's that loose a call agaisnt the range of hands these players push with. Even after the rebuys, these "thinking" players will take pocket 4's to the river.

However, I let go of the T7s hand. The push is totally read dependent on CHTP's ability to laydown a hand...not the fact that you were able to lay down AQ. (Did he turn over what he was pushing with after you exposed?)

And as others have stated, he does have good odds to call with a wide range of hands, especially before the second break.

Decision: Spewing? - YES

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly certain that he doesn't think about hand ranges, price, etc...if he doesn't have a 'good hand', he'll probably let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]


It also means that he probably wouldnt reraise you without a 'good hand'. Anything he wasn't ready to play for all his chips he probably just calls with preflop. Probably.

Of course you could push, get called, suckout, and proceed to get more offers for action than Eva Longoria. Your call.

Everett

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

and here I thought this would be about your weight loss plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh

Regards,
Woodguy

[DeuceKicker]

I'm not very good, but I'm sure I'm better than most of the schmoes you're playing against. You'd probably (accurately) describe me as a thinking player who's still no match for you.

That having been said, after you folded AQ face up, I'd be telling myself, "the next time he comes over the top of me, he probably won't have much." I probably wouldn't have the balls to follow through and call a push without a good hand, but I'd be suspicious. Maybe this guy has the balls.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very good, but I'm sure I'm better than most of the schmoes you're playing against. You'd probably (accurately) describe me as a thinking player who's still no match for you.

That having been said, after you folded AQ face up, I'd be telling myself, "the next time he comes over the top of me, he probably won't have much." I probably wouldn't have the balls to follow through and call a push without a good hand, but I'd be suspicious. Maybe this guy has the balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are one level past him.

[SossMan]

So he thought for about 30 seconds and finally called w/ JJ and I couldn't hit a double gutter and was crippled.