$55, a slightly different bubble situation [Archive]

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tigerite

11-17-2005, 04:38 PM

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC (http://client.pokergrader.com))

Chip Counts:
Button: 2930 Chips
SB: 1215 Chips
Hero: 4815 Chips
UTG: 1040 Chips

Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Blinds are 150/300

PreFlop
UTG is All-In, Button folds
SB is All-In, Hero .. ?

11-17-2005, 04:40 PM

No fair: we can't rely upon SNGPT to help us out.

I fold.

11-17-2005, 04:43 PM

folding being quite happy to end up as a 99% guaranteed chipleader ITM

bluefeet

11-17-2005, 04:44 PM

donk it up bro!!

you're easily ahead of UTG's range (though fairly behind SB's).
almost 3:1

calling+losing vs. folding doesn't create a great enough chip advantage/disadvantage 3-handed to justify passing on these pot odds.

jb9

11-17-2005, 04:45 PM

Fold and root for SB.

Nicholasp27

11-17-2005, 04:47 PM

u may wanna drop that 99% number down a fair bit

Hornacek

11-17-2005, 04:49 PM

Fold. At least I would.

11-17-2005, 04:51 PM

not by much though. if sb loses he has around 0.5 bb.

junkmail3

11-17-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
folding being quite happy to end up as a 99% guaranteed chipleader ITM

[/ QUOTE ]

Call and be 99% gaurenteed chip leader ITM.

Reraise! I think you repushing has a much more intimidating effect right before the cards are turned up.

Edit - I would have elaborated, but I think bluefeet sums it up quite nicely.

tigerite

11-17-2005, 04:56 PM

Reraise? I'm in the BB though, closing the action, and both of the other guys are all-in. By the way, it was I think 915 to call, if that sways anyone's opinion.

pineapple888

11-17-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC (http://client.pokergrader.com))

Chip Counts:
Button: 2930 Chips
SB: 1215 Chips
Hero: 4815 Chips
UTG: 1040 Chips

Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Blinds are 150/300

PreFlop
UTG is All-In, Button folds
SB is All-In, Hero .. ?

[/ QUOTE ]

915 to win 3470 = 26% pot odds.

Not very good three-handed with a very marginal hand that is likely to be dominated.

Plus, the chips you could win aren't worth as much as the ones you could lose.

Pass.

bennies

11-17-2005, 05:00 PM

Fold and hope cheer for utg. If he wins you might take some easy blinds the next two hands.

junkmail3

11-17-2005, 05:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Reraise? I'm in the BB though, closing the action, and both of the other guys are all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I know. It's the intimidation factor. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

bluefeet

11-17-2005, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Plus, the chips you could win aren't worth as much as the ones you could lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold + SB wins (agreeing his range is the strongest here)
Button: 2930 Chips
SB: 2555 Chips
Hero: 4515 Chips

Call + SB wins
Button: 2930 Chips
SB: 3470 Chips
Hero: 3600 Chips

Call + hero wins
Button: 2930 Chips
Hero: 7700 Chips

eh...pretty close. i don't know that ~a~ is THAT much better than ~b~, to pass on a chance for ~c~

tiger is a goot pushbottinbiatch. he can make ~b~ look like ~a~ in short order /images/graemlins/wink.gif

tigerite

11-17-2005, 05:08 PM

Heh, but what I mean is, I physically can't re-raise. LOL

Well I suppose I should put in results, I did call, UTG had AKo, SB had 33, I spiked a 5, and won the HU easily. Booyacka etc. I think I'd call again, too, but I felt it was close.

junkmail3

11-17-2005, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC (http://client.pokergrader.com))

Chip Counts:
Button: 2930 Chips
SB: 1215 Chips
Hero: 4815 Chips
UTG: 1040 Chips

Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Blinds are 150/300

PreFlop
UTG is All-In, Button folds
SB is All-In, Hero .. ?

[/ QUOTE ]

915 to win 3470 = 26% pot odds.

Not very good three-handed with a very marginal hand that is likely to be dominated.

Plus, the chips you could win aren't worth as much as the ones you could lose.

Pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if this is true. And it's likely the reason he posted this hand. (though I could be way off, and when I first looked at the hand, I thought about myself playing it. And if I were just playing along, I would proabably fold.)

But let's look at the four situations:
Call and lose with UTG winning, SB 2nd, HERO 3rd.
SB 350
HERO 3600
Button 2930
BB 3120

HERO can steal the next two hands and get 1000 back. And if anyone but SB calls without AA/KK, well, they have some nice balls.

HERO calls and SB wins:
Now we're ITM with
SB at 3470
Hero at 3600
Button at 2930

HERO still has the (slight) advantage, and has 10xBB to work his way to first.

HERO calls and wins:
Hero at 7040 ready to pwn
Button - who cares, he's pwned.

Now, if the two shorties tie, well, that's unfortunate, but hero is still in command.

Like I said, if I were in the game, I would probably fold without thinking too much. But I think it would be a mistake to fold in this spot considering that at this point, you are practically gaurenteed 3rd, and if you call and win you have an incredible advantage.

junkmail3

11-17-2005, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Heh, but what I mean is, I physically can't re-raise. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, I forgot about this. You could at least type "I would reraise if I COULD!"

durron597

11-17-2005, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]

915 to win 3470 = 26% pot odds.

Not very good three-handed with a very marginal hand that is likely to be dominated.

Plus, the chips you could win aren't worth as much as the ones you could lose.

Pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really feel like coming up with ranges, but:

Against their actual hands, you only have 19% equity.

However change UTG into AQ, and you have 28% equity. Change the 33 into 66 and you have 21% equity.

Intuitively, to me, that means that best case you have slight +cEV and in the worst case you have pretty steep -cEV. This is a fold.

ZeroPointMachine

11-17-2005, 05:40 PM

I fold and am either ITM or have the chance to pick up a bunch of free chips by exploiting the big stack on the bubble with super short stack situation.

kyro

11-17-2005, 05:43 PM

I'd call this in a flash. 900 to win 2500...maybe less? Surely you've got enough equity.

bigt439

11-17-2005, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

915 to win 3470 = 26% pot odds.

Not very good three-handed with a very marginal hand that is likely to be dominated.

Plus, the chips you could win aren't worth as much as the ones you could lose.

Pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really feel like coming up with ranges, but:

Against their actual hands, you only have 19% equity.

However change UTG into AQ, and you have 28% equity. Change the 33 into 66 and you have 21% equity.

Intuitively, to me, that means that best case you have slight +cEV and in the worst case you have pretty steep -cEV. This is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I initially thought based on intuition alone. I haven't run numbers, but I think this is a fold, especially since you are likely better than everyone at the table (i.e. your chips are more valuable so don't waste them on very marginal spots). The problem is you will have one of your cards dominated almost always by a higher pp or a better K and you can have them both dominated a significant amount of the time. SB likely has a pretty good hand here so I think we're dominated one way or the other alot by him and sometimes by UTG. I don't know, I'm not in a mathy mood I just wrote a hard ass forecasting exam, but I'm going to say that I'm all-knowing and you should fold.

Dr_Jeckyl_00

11-17-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 7 - 4 players (Converter: PGC (http://client.pokergrader.com))

Chip Counts:
Button: 2930 Chips
SB: 1215 Chips
Hero: 4815 Chips
UTG: 1040 Chips

Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Blinds are 150/300

PreFlop
UTG is All-In, Button folds
SB is All-In, Hero .. ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not read any other responses yet, but I think that you have to fold... your hand sucks. This is not even close to Raptors AQ post... K5 is not AQ. Relatively speaking you don't have much to gain, and you can lose 25% of your stack, and you're in great shape w/ t4800... I fold here... quickly.

bigt439

11-17-2005, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This is not even close to Raptors AQ post...

[/ QUOTE ]

... the sky is blue... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

11-17-2005, 09:11 PM