Varying Degrees of Desperation

[Magician]

When do I start going all in with any pocket pair or AK, AQ?

I find that I usually start doing this when my chips can last only 2 or 3 more orbits.

For 2 orbits the logic is clear - if you let yourself lose the blinds the next orbit even if you double up you are no better off than where you started so it might be better to make a stand with a not so strong hand.

Should you start this earlier, say with 4 or 5 orbits worth left of chips (or even sooner)?

If I am UTG or UTG + 1, and I have only 2 or 3 orbits worth of chips left, is it better mathematically to just make a stand with something like J7o or even 97o then let myself cough up the blinds? Is it better to have a 35% chance of doubling up than just concede blinds that amount to 1/3 to 1/2 my stack?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Depends on how close you are to the money. Far from the money, once your stack size is less than 10x the BB, you're in all-in or fold territory, so you have to play a bit tighter than normal. Once your stack gets to half that, you need to loosen up a bit.

If you're in the money or close to it, pay attention to other stack sizes. You may be able to sneak in or move up by just staying alive. It's not an exact science.

[Magician]

Is that 10BB with rolling antes? How many orbits is that?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

With antes it usually amounts to 4 or 5 orbits. You also have to keep in mind how soon (and how steeply) the blinds increase. Also, the more you let your stack erode, the less you gain by doubling through, and the more likely you make it that a bigger stack will call.

Example, you have 2,000 on 'Stars and it's more than halfway through the 100/200 blind, 25 ante level. At the next level, the ante remains the same, but the blinds double. Obviously, you're more desparate here than when the level began.

[DJA]

If half of my stack is in on my BB, I will play any 2 cards against a single opponent. My reasoning is, I usually am not that far behind and may not be behind at all, I can't continue getting blinded away and expect to improve my position in the tournament, and I have a much better chance of doubling through with a random hand against a single opponent.

This same philosophy holds for 1/3 my stack pretty much...
Say I have T1500 and blinds are T250/500. I post T500 in the BB and have T1000 left, well if I fold I will have to post T250 in the SB and have T750 left. The problem with that is you really can't get anyone to fold when you have no chips... The consequences of calling your all-in is not severe enough.

Just My Thoughts,

[Magician]

Sounds like it fits Sklansky's moving in with AKo when your stack is 2-5 times the pot. Thoughts?

[cferejohn]

If I'm going to raise (with no limpers), I almost always raise to 3xBB. If that's much more than 1/3 of my stack, I go all in.

For the record, I will not always make this move with "any pocket pair". If my stack is small enough relative to one of the players to act behind me (i.e. I am almost sure to get called) I'll probably muck 55 and lower unless I cannot (or can barely) survive the blinds.

[Magician]

Hi,

I've started to go into "all-in or fold" mode pre-flop when I have 4-5 orbits worth of chips left and it seems to be much better now than before when I waited until I was down to 2 or 3 orbits.

What about for the $39 satellites for the $200 game?

If my goal now is just to finish in the top 1/6 of players, how many orbits should I have left before I go into all-in or fold mode? I presume the number is less but how much less?

I'm asking this because in a satellite for the $200, I raised all-in from UTG + 1 (about 5 orbits' worth of chips) with pocket TT, got called by pocket 88, got unlucky and busted out (the 88 guy had a slightly smaller stack than me but the next hand the blinds took me out).

The thing is that in this case, I had the best of it, but just as easily someone acting after me could have had a bigger pair and called, or two overcards and called.

I was about on the bubble at the time.

Was it a good move but just bad luck, or should I have waited a couple more orbits before getting desperate? As you know, it's hard to know if you'll get dealt a hand as good again if the blinds are so high.