SnG theory question

[MightyMouse]

Blinds are 100/200 no ante

Player 1 has 1000 and is UTG
Player 2 has 1000 and is UTG +1
Player 3 has 7500 and is SB.
Player 4 has 4000 and is BB.

Players 1 and 2 fold. Player 3 moves in with A3d and player 4 knows he has this hand. Is it pos EV for player 4 to call with KK?

[citanul]

you need to go look up the definition of "theory"

[bmxreed36]

Well, theoretically if you knew he had this hand, it would be -EV to call. Aces are still good though /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I'm a total newbie, but I'll take a stab at this...

If only first place paid, and your chance of winning is the same as your percentage of chips...

if you fold, you have 4000/13500 = ~ 30% chance of winning.
if you call, you have .7 * ( 8000/13500) = 41% chance.

(since KK has a 70% chance of holding up)

I'd need to think about it more to factor in a realistic payout structure, but sounds like a call to me...

[Nicholasp27]

the problem being that 1-3 pay, not just first...and if u call and lose here u are out and don't get money...with these chip stacks, your equity has to be around 30% of the pot

u can't get higher than 50%...so u can't gain nearly as much as u lose (all 30%)...so u need to win a huge portion of the time, which kk doesnt against a3...if u didn't see his hand, u could call and if u saw it was kx, qx, pp etc then u could...but against ax, this is a fold

[UMTerp]

MM,

This is a very good (and basic) ICM exercise if you've never learned to use it before. Take a stab at it (there are pointers on how to use it in the FAQ) and post your results - someone will help if you get stuck.

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds are 100/200 no ante

Player 1 has 1000 and is UTG
Player 2 has 1000 and is UTG +1
Player 3 has 7500 and is SB.
Player 4 has 4000 and is BB.

Players 1 and 2 fold. Player 3 moves in with A3d and player 4 knows he has this hand. Is it pos EV for player 4 to call with KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, this is the first I've heard of ICM, so even though this may be a trivial problem, I'd like someone to confirm that I'm thinking about this correctly:

Assuming 50/30/20 payout structure,
Assuming the chip values are before blinds were posted,
Using http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html because it comes up first in google /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Folding gives:
player 3: t7700, 40% EV
player 4: t3800, 31% EV
Call+win gives:
player 3: t3700, 31% EV
player 4: t8000, 40% EV
Call+lose gives:
player 4: 0% EV.

KK(non-diamond) vs A3d wins 67% of the time so, the EV for calling is:
0.67 * .40 + 0.33 * 0 = .27

So, since this is less than the .31 EV folding gives us, we conclude that calling is -EV.

Is that basically how ICM is applied?

And what about player 3... what if this were played face up. If player 3 knows that its -EV for player 4 to call, is it +EV to move all-in? I guess it depends if player 3 knows that player 4 knows its -EV to call...

[Nicholasp27]

yes, we apply it by figuring the equity value of each possible outcome and then weighting those by the probability of their occurences and seeing which move is better

sngpt by eastbay does this grunt work for you...very good program

[dseiko]

Just tried icm for the first time. Here is what i got.

If you fold, you have 28.8% of the prize pool.

If you call - you lose 32.9% of the time and have 0% of the prize pool
or you win 67.1% and have 59.2% of the prize pool.

.32 * 0 + 67.1 * 59.2 = 39.7%

If you fold you will usually have 28.8 percent of the prize pool. If you call you will usually have 39.7 percent of the prize pool, making this call easy.


Did i do this right?

Edited to add : i didn't do anything with the event of a split pot. The calcualtor i used didn't give me the % of that happening

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]

or you win 67.1% and have 59.2% of the prize pool.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would assume this has a normal 5 3 2 payout structure in which case you can never exceed 50% of the prize pool.

Pokerscott

[Nicholasp27]

did u use an icm calculator? u can't have >50% of the prize pool equity in a 50/30/20 payout structure

plug the stack sizes into an icm calculator (one is linked in an earlier post in this thread, or google it)

[ QUOTE ]
yes, we apply it by figuring the equity value of each possible outcome and then weighting those by the probability of their occurences and seeing which move is better

sngpt by eastbay does this grunt work for you...very good program

[/ QUOTE ]

I second that -- it's an invaluable tool. SnG Power Tools.