AJo

[PokerBob]

Canterbury 8/16 9 handed
EP is drunk. I don't know much about him, but earlier he raised in EP with 69o. Other dude I have played with, but remember nothing about his game.

EP raises, I 3-bet with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, other dude is next in and CC's 3 bets. EVeryone else clears out and EP calls.

Flop 3 ways: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
EP checks, I bet, other dude calls, EP now raises, I tank and then call, other dude calls.

Turn: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
EP bets, I call, other dude raises, EP calls, I tank again and then call.

River: J /images/graemlins/club.gif

EP checks, I check, other dude bets, EP calls, I raise, other dude says nice catch and calls, EP folds. Thoughts on all streets please.

[thirddan]

my first thought is to raise the turn...we most likely have the best hand unless EP has 98 or a straight, he seems aggro enough that he would have just bet the flop with an A though, or even any pair...

[toss]

I like either 3-betting the flop or raising the turn. It feels you're ahead of EP a good deal and you want the third guy out.

[Ianco15]

I like 3 betting the flop to try to issolate EP.

Preflop: Standard, you have a great hand against a drunks range. Postflop, theres two lines I like, either 3 betting the flop, or just calling the flop with the intention of raising the turn. You must choose one. In this large pot you cannot afford to allow the 3rd guy to stay in here, you must make this a 2 player contest to give your hand the best chance possible of taking this pot down. I prefer 3 betting the flop to try to make this a heads up confrontation before the turn card. On the turn, when you just call and the other guy wakes up and raises, this is a very ominous sign. Given that this player cold called 3 bets preflop, smooth called the flop, and now raises the turn, this smells of pocket 88's or 66's or AK or a turned set of 99's. Although you are getting 13-1 to call this turn raise, I think its time to fold, you will be drawing dead too often to make calling correct even given these huge pot odds. Given that you called the turn, I really dont like your river play, this is not a good time to go for the checkraise becuz there is still too strong of a chance that you will be 3 bet by a better hand and you will have to call, I think you are much better off betting the river and calling a raise than going for the checkraise here.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are much better off betting the river and calling a raise than going for the checkraise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[krimson]

I'd also b/c the river. There were a lot of draws available on the turn and it might have been a sketchy semi-bluff. I don't trust him to bet the river 100% of the time here, and also don't want to open myself up to a 3-bet vs a set. The rest looks good.

[DeathDonkey]

I feel like just following you around and quoting your posts instead of trying to say the same thing myself, but less aptly.

-DeathDonkey

[SenecaJim]

I really liked reading your analysis and made me concentrate and think about this hand more.

Are you sure enough to fold the turn here with those odds?
Besides the possible hands you gave, how about a suited ace and he has matched his rag kicker on flop or turn. Do you feel this is equally possible?

Or KQs and trying to semi-bluff ( I know looks like a value raise, but maybe trying to set up taking it away on the river? ) I guess part of this judgement would be how you thinks Dude views you as a player. What level of thinking he puts you on? Because disguising the semibluff as a value bet based on what he thinks you think he's thinking would be a good play? What are your thoughts? I'm afraid I outthink myself sometimes and call on a turn like this when maybe I should be folding.

[ QUOTE ]
I really liked reading your analysis and made me concentrate and think about this hand more.

Are you sure enough to fold the turn here with those odds?
Besides the possible hands you gave, how about a suited ace and he has matched his rag kicker on flop or turn. Do you feel this is equally possible?

Or KQs and trying to semi-bluff ( I know looks like a value raise, but maybe trying to set up taking it away on the river? ) I guess part of this judgement would be how you thinks Dude views you as a player. What level of thinking he puts you on? Because disguising the semibluff as a value bet based on what he thinks you think he's thinking would be a good play? What are your thoughts? I'm afraid I outthink myself sometimes and call on a turn like this when maybe I should be folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
First off, folding a top pair type hand on the turn for one more bet against an unknown getting 13-1 is generally a bad play, the pot is simply too big to fold especially when you consider that you have many outs against many two pair type hands, and you almost have the odds to spike your kicker alone in case youre outkicked, and there is also around a 10% chance the villain could be semi-bluffing/bluffing. All that said, I think pokerbob's situation is an exception and heres why: We can eliminate all bluffs/semibluffs since the villain is raising the turn after two people have committed a turn bet(The villain would have to be crazy to make this play especially when you consider that the drunk is never folding, since pokerbob has no read on villain I will assume he's not crazy). The villain is very unlikely to have 2 pair on this board since he cold called 3bets preflop unless hes really loose(Again with no read on him, I would assume rightly or wrongly that he is not that loose) and based on my playing experience the hand that the typical opponent loves to cold call 3 bets with preflop is pocket pairs(probably becuz these hands are so easy to play postflop, and people like that "hitting the lottery feeling" they get when their card hits the flop). This is why I think there is such a high probability that the villain has a set given the action of the hand. Finally I dont think the villain is thinking on any kind of advanced level, I think he is raising this turn cuz he likes his hand alot(once again another assumption on my part) So as you can see my analysis is based on 3 key assumptions
1. The villain is not crazy enough to semibluff here
2. The villain isnt THAT loose to have 2 pair on this board
3. The villain is only thinking about his hand
If any of my assumptions are wrong then Bob would be incorrect to fold the turn. But in the heat of battle, I have no choice but to go by my judgement, whether it be right or wrong, and based on my judgement I think Bob should fold the turn even though he is getting 13-1.

You're giving a lot of credit to the player behind you. I would probably three-bet the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
In this large pot you cannot afford to allow the 3rd guy to stay in here

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand has very little to worry about in terms of isolation/protection--raises here are for value. Hero is WA/WB on the flop/turn.

He's never folding a better ace, and so he's drawing thin against AK or AQ, and drawing dead against a set.

On the other hand, if the villain who cold called the 3-bet preflop has a big pair TT-KK, that villain is way behind and drawing thin--charge him to see a showdown and don't worry about folding him out. Same goes for an overplayed weaker ace (e.g., ATs), which is drawing to 3 outs only.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this large pot you cannot afford to allow the 3rd guy to stay in here

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand has very little to worry about in terms of isolation/protection--raises here are for value. Hero is WA/WB on the flop/turn.

He's never folding a better ace, and so he's drawing thin against AK or AQ, and drawing dead against a set.

On the other hand, if the villain who cold called the 3-bet preflop has a big pair TT-KK, that villain is way behind and drawing thin--charge him to see a showdown and don't worry about folding him out. Same goes for an overplayed weaker ace (e.g., ATs), which is drawing to 3 outs only.

[/ QUOTE ]
When you are in a large 3 handed pot with a probable best yet tenuous hand like top pair, your goal should be to get this pot heads up as soon as possible. Thinking about what other players may have is secondary. The strategic value of making this a two player confrontation, and thus increasing your probability of winning this large pot, outweighs any other consideration such as what these two players may or may not have.

[KDawgCometh]

1. glad to see you around this part of the forum again PBob

2. I really think that your hand is strong enough to three bet the flop to isolate the drunk guy. His raising range and his current state certainly makes me think that you are ahead enough to three bet the flop. I don't know what would constitue a good turn for you to raise, as the guy behind you always has to be taken into consideration, and his three cold PF is obviously a worry. I really want to fold him out as soon as possible

as far as the river, I think that you will get more value overall with bet/calling. There is enough going on that board as far as straight draws that doesn't make me want to go for the sexy on the river. I'm not sure this is the best place to do that

[me454555]

You can't like anyone calling your pf 3 bet b/c that means hes got AK, AQ, JJ, QQ, TT. I like reraising the flop on this hand to figure out where you are. If he calls your flop raise you can be pretty sure he's got AK, AQ. The advantage of this line is that he's less likely to raise the turn on you if you lead and you might even consider checking the turn if you don't improve.

[PokerBob]

Canterbury 8/16 9 handed
EP is drunk. I don't know much about him, but earlier he raised in EP with 69o. Other dude I have played with, but remember nothing about his game.

EP raises, I 3-bet with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif, other dude is next in and CC's 3 bets. EVeryone else clears out and EP calls.

Flop 3 ways: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
EP checks, I bet, other dude calls, EP now raises, I tank and then call, other dude calls.

Turn: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
EP bets, I call, other dude raises, EP calls, I tank again and then call.

River: J /images/graemlins/club.gif

EP checks, I check, other dude bets, EP calls, I raise, other dude says nice catch and calls, EP folds. Thoughts on all streets please.

Well, I thought about 3-betting the flop, but then figured that the guy behind me likely hand nothing that could call profitably for one bet, much less 2. That or i was already behind him. Basically, i didn't mind his call. But I suck at hand reading, as he turned over 75s,. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[shant]

His hand reading skills are so much better since it was obvious you had QTo.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
His hand reading skills are so much better since it was obvious you had QTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. i almost peed myself when i realized what he had me on.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His hand reading skills are so much better since it was obvious you had QTo.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. i almost peed myself when i realized what he had me on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Although you were drawing dead against him this time, after seeing what your opponent showed down, I would never fold the turn getting 13-1 against this guy since he is definitely loose enough to have any two pair on this board!

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey PokerBob,

I don't like your turn play at all. I think it's decently likely you lost this hand. You probably won't the majority of the time and maybe not this time, but I think LP will have a better hand here a decent amount of the time. This is a pretty typical line all the way thru for 99/88/66, the call and comment on the river thinking you spiked your set which fits in his mind with your deliberation on the flop and following passive line. You don't have 3 outs on the turn. You probably have somewhere around close to 2.0, give or take a little. 2.0 is a pretty reasonable read to make during the hand for ease of calculation. From there you can quickly get an idea of how proportional you'd be off of 2.5 and adjust accordingly if you think it's somewhere between 2 and 3. Even adding in the 1 point whatever implied you're going to come up short unless you go as high as maybe 2.7 or so. I'd be interested to know what you gave yourself when you decided to call the turn.

GoT