Taking a Coinflip in BB on the Absolute Bubble? ($109)

[MSUcougar]

Party $109, 500 entrants... we're at 61 left, money at 60 (2x buyin).

I have 3600 before posting the 600 BB.

Folded to SB who pushes his 7000 stack.

I have 55.

Now, of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here... Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

Is this a call or fold? Why? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[mlagoo]

i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[Roman]

antes? I think this is a call with antes, closer but still probably a call without.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
antes? I think this is a call with antes, closer but still probably a call without.

[/ QUOTE ]
no antes on party...

[nath]

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Party $109, 500 entrants... we're at 61 left, money at 60 (2x buyin).

I have 3600 before posting the 600 BB.

Folded to SB who pushes his 7000 stack.

I have 55.

Now, of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here... Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

Is this a call or fold? Why? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Call. Why?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

Cashing would have to mean something for you to fold here. If winning means more, call.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Why?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

Cashing would have to mean something for you to fold here. If winning means more, call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Winning definitely means more. However, given my stack size, I'm not sure calling and winning gives me ENOUGH of a stack (as compared to what I'd have if I folded) to justify risking it all on the bubble.

Thoughts on this?

[Sam T.]

When you say, "of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here", is that based on a read of his play up to this point or how he should be playing? (In one of Adanthar's tournament histories, he noted one case in which he almost called a Button push with A9 or something like that, and then "I remembered that not everyone plays like me, and folded.")

Anyway, you're 60% against a random hand, but that random hand includes hands you dominate and those that give the villain three outs. If you really think he's pushing 43o and 82o, then I guess a call is in order. If you think he's going with something better than this, I probably fold. I'd rather be the aggressor than call and pray for a coinflip.

[mackthefork]

I'd fold and take the ~170 dollars, if it's 10 from the bubble I call.

Mack

I would not call a push with this hand unless I'm absolutely sure the all-in player could be shoving any two. I've been burned by calling with small pairs so often that it just isn't a good bet in my books.

If you were to eliminate the bottom 40% of hands and figure villain is only pushing the top 60% then you're a 55/45 favorite. Tighten the range and you get closer to a dead even matchup, about 52/48. I prefer picking better spots than this and I'm sure you can find one before being blinded out. You'd literally have to include every trash hand in villains range to be ahead enough to make a call a marginally correct play as a 60/40 favorite with just under 1.5:1 being offered by the pot.

This is an easy fold to me.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd push with this hand but not call with it unless I'm absolutely sure the all-in player could be shoving any two. I've been burned by calling with small pairs so often that it just isn't a good bet in my books.

If you were to eliminate the bottom 40% of hands and figure villain is only pushing the top 60% then you're a 55/45 favorite. Tighten the range and you get closer to a dead even matchup, about 52/48. I prefer picking better spots than this and I'm sure you can find one before being blinded out. You'd literally have to include every trash hand in villains range to be ahead enough to make a call a marginally correct play as a 60/40 favorite with just under 1.5:1 being offered by the pot.

This is an easy fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main issue for me is, it seems with 61 left and 5 times the BB that he will have $EV of higher than 60th place money at the moment, and this will fall if he makes this call in my opinion. There must be small stacks here, someone will be gone long before the blinds come back to him, the average stack is ~11k so he's not a million miles off the pace.

Mack

[DVaut1]

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Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes it a fold for me. If cashing meant anything to me in this spot, I'd fold.

[Yuv]

I call this almost everytime (unless I have a specific read on a guy). Is that a leak?

2 points:

1. If you are playing to WIN, it looks like a good call. His all in is probably weakness as a $2500 bet accomplishes the same result with less risk to the SB HOLDING a decent hand.

2. If playing to cash, just log out and leave thus totally eliminating any risk of not cashing.

[ QUOTE ]
i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah - there's a HUGE difference between 55 and 77 vs. any 2 . . .

[mlagoo]

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i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

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Yeah - there's a HUGE difference between 55 and 77 vs. any 2 . . .

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Yeah I know. A 12% equity swing. Pretty huge.

[Melchiades]

I'm not sure I follow this line of reasoning. Maybe this situation is too good to pass up on, that might be. But many here seems to have some sort of weird obsession about taking any +cEV play on the bubble. That can't be right? We play poker to win money, and if that means sometimes securing a place ITM when 60 out of 61 gets payed so be it. Playing to win and not to place means not going in check fold mode when we are closing the money and you think might be able to fold into the money. It doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong to pass up on +cEV right on the bubble.

Seems to be some sort of macho mantra on this forum "We play to win, not to get ITM!".

To me there is no if you play to win do this, and if you play to get ITM do that. We always make the play that will make us the most money. Sometimes that means passing on a +cEV play to get into the money.

[captainzodiac]

this is a tough spot,you're almost certainly up against 2 overs,so a slight favorite,anywhere but this spot,when i'm short stacked is an auto call,but 1 from the money short stacked is a spot i refuse to take coin tosses usually, just isn't wourth it,unless it was a much cheaper buy in,but here i'm most likely folding,not very happily!

[ QUOTE ]
1. If you are playing to WIN, it looks like a good call. His all in is probably weakness as a $2500 bet accomplishes the same result with less risk to the SB HOLDING a decent hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't is also possible that SB has a hand and is using the whole "he thinks that I think" line of reasoning? I know I do this sometimes with a made hand from the SB hoping to induce a call from the BB thinking he's picking off a steal with a hand like A-rag. There are plenty of people out there that would call with a weak hand, especially when they are short stacked, so why not give them the chance to hang themselves?

The difference between raising to 2500 and putting the BB in for his last 3000 is so miniscule that I don't see the SB simply raising here ever. It's a clear push for the SB. Holding any 2? Perhaps, but I'm not putting my whole tournament on the line with 55. If hero folds he still has 5BB which is enough to stage a comeback.

[adanthar]

In a vacuum, this call is undoubtedly -$EV (off the top of my head - you are guaranteed a bit under $218 plus [1/2 share below] if you fold; if you call and win, your stack is worth [share of total prize pool minus (60x218) because that money will be paid out]; if you lose, you get 0. You can do it from here and my eyeballed guess is you lose about $50-$100 on the call). The question is whether winning and getting a bigger stack gives you enough opportunities to overcome that initial disadvantage.

I would try to stall to see if anyone with less chips busted on the hand (no shame in that here IMO), but in the end I think this is a close fold/call with something like 88. FWIW, however, most top names would call here if the read is really 'any two'.

PS: In that HH, I folded A6o. I'd have called A9 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[WSOPstar2B]

What was the short stack amount? Any idea as to where you ranked? BTW, that is one thing I wish PP would change in their software. I luv the fact that on Paradise, UB & PS you know where you rank at all times.
If "losing 109" is not that big a deal for u & ur Bankroll, then call and gamble! But then if you fold the SB, u'll have 2700 left in chips. R u at a full table? W/61 left I would say NOT. So the blinds will be coming around fairly quickly unless someone goes out. Also how soon do the blinds increase? R they likely to do so b4 it comes around to you again? Then again is $236 needed by you bad enough to warrent wimping into the $.
One point I think that was overlooked. The SB is probably fully aware of the fact that 61 r left. THAT IS A GREAT TIME TO MAKE HIS MOVE! Cause no one likes being the bubble boy. So I would definitely call unless I had pretty much zilch in my account & couldn't reload it. (u r playing way above ur bankroll then!)
That's my 1/2 cent worth

[SoloAJ]

Calling here if you think youre 55/45 or better seems the obivous play to me if you're looking to maximize your $$$.

If you had an unlimited bankroll but still wanted to make the best decision, would you seirously still fold this hand if your read was 'any 2'?

That said, we can't be sure he is pushing any two,a nd if this is the first time he has showed aggression from the SB I would probably fold.

With what limited information I have, I probably call this hand and just hope the cards fall in my favor. I don't see the reasoning for laying it down if you think they're pushing any 2.

[DVaut1]

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I call this almost everytime (unless I have a specific read on a guy). Is that a leak?

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This situation arises so infrequently that I don't believe it's a huge leak; and while I would fold, I don't think it's a clear fold, and I can certainly see the wisdom in calling. I just wouldn't call here myself.

As Adanthar said, a great player can wield the larger stack (if the 55 were to hold up) to make a call here +$EV; but I'm not good enough (and chances are most of us aren't) good enough to make this call +$EV, because the larger stack won't overcome the -$EV call we're making in this spot. I think it's up to MSUCougar to judge his abilities, and know if the larger stack (resultant from calling and having the 55 hold up) can get him into the big money spots at the final table frequently enough to make taking the worst of it here profitable - or if calling and losing on the bubble will frustrate/anger him to the point of 'tilting', etc - even if he's otherwise skilled enough that it's truly a +EV call for him.

So I think this is largely a question of player introspection: do we think we're good enough to take the larger stack and parlay it into a big money spot -- so much so that we can take the worst of it by calling with 55 here? I'm not that good, so I'd lay it down. MSU's situation is likely different.

Hope this makes sense.

[donny5k]

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With what limited information I have, I probably call this hand and just hope the cards fall in my favor. I don't see the reasoning for laying it down if you think they're pushing any 2.

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Have you EVER played a satellite or thought about satellite theory? Let's say Hero's equity is slightly over 50% (I think villain folds 42o usually). Hero's equity by folding is going to be 2x buyin + X where X is what his chips are worth in terms of the money left over after the first pay stage. So he must have about 4x buyin + 2X equity when he wins the coinflip to justify calling. This means that doubling up has to give him 2x buyins in EV from bigger stack opportunities. That is a lot of equity to attribute to skill with a big stack. And if you don't see why that is true I give up.

[MSUcougar]

I definitely put villain on any 2. Honestly, given the spot, I think anything but a push in his position is bad with any 2 cards. I'm certain I could fold and make the money before blinds reached me again... However, given that there was a chance he had 1 (or even 2) cards < 5, I decided to gamble.

&gt;<font color="white">He showed T8h and rivered a T. I think this was an unnecessary call and one I probably won't make if the situation arises again. That might be results oriented thinking though...</font>&lt;

More comments/votes are welcome.