PL Tourney Final Table Hand

[Paul2432]

The following occurred at the final table of a Pokerstars $30 PL tournament. 85 players, 9 remaining, average stack is ~14000. Blinds are 600/1200. I am in the SB with about 9500. BB has about the same. Player about UTG+3 has around 3000, everyone else has 15000+ (largest stack is about 30000).

The prize structure is as follows:

765,510,306,255,204,165,140,114,89

Note that since 9th place is already assured, the effective prize structure is now:

675, 420, 216, 165, 114, 76, 51, 25

So here is what happened. I am dealt A-9 offsuit. Everyone folds to me and I raise to 3600. Big blind re-raises all-in. I call, he has AQ and I lose.

My thinking in calling was that if I fold I will be in "survival" mode and may move up perhaps two places. Most likely just one or maybe none. I figured my equity in the prize pool after folding would be perhaps $50 additional. On the otherhand, if I call and win I would have perhaps $250 in additional prize pool equity. So I would only need a 20% chance of winning the hand to make calling the right play.

My question is, is this right way to look at things at the final table as opposed to simple pot odds? Are my estimates reasonable?

Thanks,
Paul

[SoCalPat]

I think you have too many chips and there are still too many players to start worrying about where you finish. And you are in too good of shape to commit all your chips with a garbage hand like A9o. You've got to give me better than 5-1 in this situation.

Unless the BB has a bug up his butt about people trying to steal the blinds, you're in deep doo-doo with any show of aggression. You're not going to get any hand better than yours to fold, and I doubt you'd get a medium PP to fold as well.

[sam h]

This might be a fold, but if you spend your time in tourneys waiting for 5:1 odds or better to play then you might as well just pay the entry fee and leave.

[sam h]

You are getting slightly better than 2:1 to call, but against most players you will be about a 2.8:1 dog here against a better ace or a pair 99-KK. Unless the player was very aggressive and would likely make this move with any ace or a lower pair, I would fold.

You can make this decision slighly easier by raising to 3000.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You've just put in over 1/3 of your chips. You are in a steal position, so BB does not have to give you credit for a big hand. He could be restealing with many hands worse than yours (e.g., Ax where x is 8 or lower, Kx, maybe even just a QJ or QT). If he is better than you, you are barely behind pairs 22-88, and not making a terrible call against 99-KK or better Ax hands. Only AA is a disaster.

I almost never put in 1/3 of my chips preflop and then fold, and I am certain that it is almost always incorrect to do so. The times it is right are when the opponent is a known rock, or when there are multiple raises involved.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I'm with Sam here. What you've stated is a prescription for getting run over and beaten up in every tourney you play. Why 5:1? Against everything but AA you're ahead, even, or about a 3:1 dog. Getting 2:1 in this spot is acceptable, and 3:1 pretty much assures that it is +EV to call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[curtains]

With the blinds that high in comparison to the stack sizes, heads up its very difficult to fold A9o. As a counter-question what would you guys do in same situation if the SB made it 3600 and you looked down and saw A4o....what about KTo?

[Rickfish]

I agree with the call.

Recently I was in a similar position but with more chips. I raised with AJ and the BB re-raised. I put him on a re-steal so I re-raised again for the rest of my chips. The BB called all-in. I was hoping the BB would fold to the re-re-raise but I realised afterwards that he had already put in half his chips and had to call. That is why I thought afterwards I should flat call his re-raise and move in on the flop. The flop may seem sufficiently hopeless for him to fold. He turned over 64o.

Unfortunately there was an unhappy ending - I lost to a pair of 4s.

[cferejohn]

I don't think I have ever seen a reraise at a full final table with anything worse than A6o (or any pocket pair) or KQo. I don't think I have ever seen it with anything as weak as Kx or QJ. I think you are almost certainly behind here. Given that a fold leaves you with enough to survive the blinds twice or so, I think it is close. Personally, I would usually fold (unless I really have reason to think that he really has nothing and is just moving me off a steal). Give me 1000 fewer chips and I call. It should be noted that I am really cocky about my ability to sneak up a couple of places with a short stack (I like to think justifiably; in any case, that's my reason for folding).

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I believe you truly can "sneak up" a couple of spots. But, it's not that hard to do. All you have to do is fold, give up almost any chance of finishing in the top 3, and then you can easily sneak up from 9th to 7th, maybe even 6th place.

It isn't that hard to fold your way up a few spots once you reach the final table and have an average or somewhat below average stack. And sometimes the way things play out, that is the best you can do. You get dealt medium to weak cards, and everytime there are players in the blind you think you can fold, somebody else raises first.

However, most of the time, your strategy should be geared towards maximizing your EV, and that is usually not achieved by consciously trying to sneak up a few spots. Sometimes, you must risk busting out NOW in order to have the greatest chance of being the guy who doesn't bust out at all today.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)