$22 - what do you think villain has and what's my move?

[wiggs73]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

MP2 (t325)
CO (t1555)
Button (t830)
SB (t1280)
Hero (t840)
UTG (t645)
UTG+1 (t1715)
MP1 (t810)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t125) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t125</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t250</font>

[Freudian]

I think he has you beat and your move is to fold. Sure he might have a draw, but there is no reason for you to bust out in a situation like this.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you think villain has

[/ QUOTE ]

you beat.

[ QUOTE ]
and what's my move?

[/ QUOTE ]

fold

[gumpzilla]

Don't bet so much if you're trying to take this down - I think you can get away with 75 for that purpose. Checkraising would frequently be my choice, depending on your opponent, because I think a lot of people will fire out when checked to and then give up the hand if you fight back. But I think this is a pretty easy fold given how you got here. I think it's unlikely that you'll make your opponent fold and I think he will very frequently have tons of outs when he does call you.

[Bigwig]

There's no need to lead out 125 here.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no need to lead out 125 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate. Are you suggesting lead out with a smaller amount, check-call, check-raise, check-fold?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's no need to lead out 125 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate. Are you suggesting let out with a smaller amount, check-call, check-raise, check-fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading out is debatable. I might not, in this situation. But if I were to, I wouldn't bet the pot. You're up against one player, so I'm not too worried about him having a draw. It's important to note, that even if he's on a draw, he's not far behind you on this board. He'll have live overcards. I'd bet 75 or so. If I were betting.

[bluefeet]

A/images/graemlins/heart.gifx/images/graemlins/heart.gif - where 'x' might just be the 5

Meh...a strong flush-draw of some sorts (KQ,KJ,etc). TP, set, overpair, etc. generally shouldn't be getting this cute on this "blind-friendly" flop. I have a hunch you are indeed ahead, but I'm not spending another chip to find out. He WILL call your push...he likely has 15 outs.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.4141 % 30.51% 00.91% { Qc4s }
Hand 2: 68.5859 % 67.68% 00.91% { Ah5h }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.5657 % 46.36% 00.20% { Qc4s }
Hand 2: 53.4343 % 53.23% 00.20% { Ah8h }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8182 % 50.91% 00.91% { Qc4s }
Hand 2: 48.1818 % 47.27% 00.91% { KhQh }

Push it? Whelp...you did sink yourself with your pot lead here. Personally, I'd muck. You're into push/fold mode...collecting a set of blinds will get you back to square one.


[Side-bar: Do we push this if we KNOW he is on a FD? Considering the price we are NOW facing? The odds of our hand "holding up"? &lt;- I'm asking]

[durron597]

I lead for slightly less (like 80) and fold to the minraise. You are a big dog (vs. a higher pair) or a small(ish) favorite to a draw.

[golfcchs]

I usually check fold here because I find that at the 22's nobody will respect a blind bet on the flop heads up and you will get reraised with all kinds of hands. I may be wrong, but I really don't like a bet because I think it induces bluffs you cant call.

[wiggs73]

It's ironic that of the 3 hands I posted within half an hour of each other, the one I played the worst worked out the best.

I pushed this and villain went into his time bank and folded. The push is pretty awful in retrospect and I don't think it's a play that I'd really use often in this situation. I'm not completely sure what made me do it here.

The suggestions to lead for less than the size of the pot were more interesting to me and something I'll consider. Thanks guys.