KQo in a mess on the turn

[nomadtla]

Villan is loose (50) but about right in the PFR range (9). And very solid postflop (2+ AF, and except for liking to hang on to PP to long knows how to fold).
MP3 is 30/6/1.5 so not terible but nothing amazing

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, UTG folds, Hero ?

Dare I raise again. Can I still be ahead. And if I am behind do I count the K a good card or bad?
Comments on anything appreciated?
Would also like to know river lines both if MP3 stays or if he drops.

[2+2 wannabe]

A re-raise when the PF 3-bettor wakes up on the turn is no good. To be honest I would be surprised if you were ahead here (AA-JJ seem likely here)

I call the turn and see what happens on the river

[milesdyson]

here's what happened when i read this post.

- i saw you raise preflop
my feeling: warm and fuzzy
- i saw you get 3-bet
my feeling: sad, but hopeful
- i saw you bet the flop
my feeling: sad

now that we're here, we have to call this turn raise. i would check fold the river unimproved. he has AA/KK/QQ/JJ (maybe AQ), and even with 12 combos of AA or KK vs. 4 of QQ/JJ, i'd say you're up against QQ/JJ much more often than 1/4th of the time.

edit: only 3 combos KK. so it's QQ/JJ 4 of 13 times if he'd play them all like this.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
my feeling: sad


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to make you sad Miles, what do you sugest on this flop. My thoughts were if he has AK/images/graemlins/heart.gif, JJ or some other AK I want to charge him. I'd also like to get it HU with this bet but my relative position to the PF3-bettor sucks balls.

[TheKentock]

So he's very loose PF but seldom raises, considering his VPIP. Because of that I think we can put him on a decently tight range of cards, being AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, and AA-TT. (Please let me know if he is looser than this)

Given those hands, I find very few that are raising the turn here that we beat. He might have called going for overcalls on the flop only to raise now with AQ, or he just hit his set of Jacks (or Queens), but I don't see us beating his holding very often. I still call, considering this is a prett large pot, but I either c/c or c/f depending on the river.

If MP3 is not in the hand on the river, the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif becomes a solid out, and we may be in better position.

[milesdyson]

check/call the flop.

edit: now let the insults fly

[PokerSparky]

This may be a good time to take a check/call, check/call, bet a safe river card line.

[ QUOTE ]
check/call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why check/call the flop? Just because he 3-bet? I think he could 3-bet with quite a few hands we beat. (TT, JJ, AK, Probably even AJs)

[A_K]

Grunch.

A couple of stat nits: if Villan is playing half of his hands, a post-flop agression factor of 2 does not indicate solid post-flop play. It indicates very agressive post-flop play. And a 30/6/1.5 player is pretty bad.

On the turn, I'd guess that you're behind, though it looks like villan is pretty agressive. A big pocket pair, possibly a set of slowplayed Qs [edit: or a set of Js] seems likely, though slowplayed AQ is a possbility. Hard to see a player with 8% PFR 3-bettting with QJ. Call.

Check/call a non-heart river. Looks like MP3 is on a heart draw.

[matt hooley]

[ QUOTE ]
here's what happened when i read this post.

- i saw you raise preflop
my feeling: warm and fuzzy
- i saw you get 3-bet
my feeling: sad, but hopeful
- i saw you bet the flop
my feeling: sad

now that we're here, we have to call this turn raise. i would check fold the river unimproved. he has AA/KK/QQ/JJ (maybe AQ), and even with 12 combos of AA or KK vs. 4 of QQ/JJ, i'd say you're up against QQ/JJ much more often than 1/4th of the time.

edit: only 3 combos KK. so it's QQ/JJ 4 of 13 times if he'd play them all like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

forgive me for saying so, but this is just bad advice. playing a line like this at .5/1 is a very bad idea, imo. let's not presume to know with such certainty what villian has, you will often be suprised and finding the right line is not just about doing your whole x number of combos routine. we can certainly be behind here but must definitely check-call the river. folding this river is a costly mistake getting 13.75-1

[TheKentock]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple of stat nits: if Villan is playing half of his hands, a post-flop agression factor of 2 does not indicate solid post-flop play. It indicates very agressive post-flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you, or someone else, explain this to me? I am a bit confused about this.

AAHH NEWBIE QUESTION!!!!

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A couple of stat nits: if Villan is playing half of his hands, a post-flop agression factor of 2 does not indicate solid post-flop play. It indicates very agressive post-flop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you, or someone else, explain this to me? I am a bit confused about this.

AAHH NEWBIE QUESTION!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true. Think of it this way: you have two players. One plays around 1/4 of all hands, one plays 1/2 of all hands. Yet both bet and raise the exact same amount after the flop. Obviously, this means the one playing 1/2 his hands is betting and raising with weaker hands than the former. In the case of 50 VP%IP, this means wayyy too much betting and raising.