5/10 QQ?

[paperboyNC]

The BB is 18/6.6/2 after 287 hands. So far he has never raised pre-flop from the BB. So far he's shown down 5 hands he raises pre-flop: TT, 88, KK, AKo, ATo. I put him on a monster here and wanted a cheap showdown. But the 2 other players make me think about protecting my hand.

Rock Garden Poker (Empire) 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.fourthnut.com/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.70 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero ?

Do I:

- Raise to protect my hand?
- Call hoping to hit a Q/images/graemlins/club.gif?
- Fold, he obviously has 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif?

Raise and beat his JJ.

[ErrantNight]

for god sakes cap preflop. it's not close.

raise the flop.

raise the turn.

don't bring this weak/tight shite in here. he's a tag that's not terribly aggressive. fine. whatever. you've got to be putting more bets in here. all over the place.

[W. Deranged]

1. Your read is great. My compliments.

2. I see no reason to raise this flop and I'm glad you didn't. Waiting for a non-club, non-overcard turn is better. Waiting also allows you to get out cheaply if, say, UTG comes to life on the turn with raise.

3. Brett can tell you what line I'll advocate on the turn: Raise and take a free showdown. You're ahead here enough to see a showdown, and since the guy in between (and even the pfr) might be betting draws, overcards, etc..., it's much better to make them pay now the times you're ahead. With so few outs you can safely fold to a three-bet. The presence of the button behind you (who likely has some outs to beat your hand) totally seals the deal for a raise here.

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
don't bring this weak/tight shite in here. he's a tag that's not terribly aggressive. fine. whatever. you've got to be putting more bets in here. all over the place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible to put an opponent on a read of JJ-AA? I'm trying to learn to adjust my play depending on my opponents. I value bet mid-pair a lot against calling stations, semi-bluff a lot against weak-tighties, and respect the raises of players that don't raise a lot.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Your read is great. My compliments.


[/ QUOTE ]

really?


f'reals?



fwiw i think you're correct about the flop. waiting for a safe turn is fine.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Your read is great. My compliments.


[/ QUOTE ]

really?


f'reals?



fwiw i think you're correct about the flop. waiting for a safe turn is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think the fact that he can name all the hands this dude has shown down when raising pre-flop is pretty good. Noting he doesn't raise out of the BB is good to. That + stats adds up to a pretty solid read in my opinion, though I would like to have a better sense of his post-flop play.

[ErrantNight]

i suspect that he knew which hands he showed down AFTER the hand was played (i.e. w/ additional research)

but even with that range i think you're getting 3-bet by AKs and JJ which is enough to make a cap +ev with the rest of the crowd being brought along

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
i suspect that he knew which hands he showed down AFTER the hand was played (i.e. w/ additional research)

but even with that range i think you're getting 3-bet by AKs and JJ which is enough to make a cap +ev with the rest of the crowd being brought along

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah, didn't think about pre-flop at all. We should cap here. I cap QQ and AK pretty much anytime there's riff-raff along for the ride.

I cap the flop. I think your equity is good with UTG and Button along for the ride. It also gives you some post flop control and info.

I like a raise on the Flop. Protect against A or K overcard holdings. You also gain some info.

Honestly I am not sure about the turn, but some thoughts I have are:

1. You won't be able to protect against a flush draw on the turn, and there are not many gut shots on this board.

2. BB will not often lead the turn again with 3 callers if he is not holding a pocket pair, so I think AK is less likely. He may have an AKs flush draw.

3. You may not be able to fold if BB 3-bets.

4. You still need to protect against A and K holdings.

5. A turn raise may buy you a cheap showdown.

I would probably raise to buy some safe river cards, charge the flush draws, and maybe see a cheap showdown. I might call a 3-bet. I might check the river through if given the chance.

[W. Deranged]

Dano,

I think you're confusing some concepts here.

The fact that we can't protect our hand against a good draw is one of the reasons why we wouldn't want to raise the flop. We'd like to protect against A and K holdings here, but a hand like ATs or something might call two cold anyway thinking he has two live overcards.

The turn will greatly define our equity. A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A, or K turn makes it very unlikely that we have the best hand any longer. A blank turn greatly increase the chance we have the best hand. Ramming and jamming the flop when our protection possibilities aren't great and our equity is murky is probably not the best idea.

We really can't call a three-bet on this turn. I've advocated raising the turn, but if we get three-bet we are almost certainly behind. If BB three-bets, we are up against exactly AA and maybe KK the vast majority of the time. If anyone else does, it is almost always a set or a 9. Many river cards can beat us anyway, and we won't have the odds to continue further at that point. There is the outside chance that we get three-bet and everyone calls and so we're getting around 20-1 on our turn call, in which case peeling probably is fine but that's a pretty unlikely scenario. Usually we'll be getting more like 15-1 and it's a pretty straightforward fold.

Thanks for the reply and criticism.

[ QUOTE ]

The fact that we can't protect our hand against a good draw is one of the reasons why we wouldn't want to raise the flop. We'd like to protect against A and K holdings here, but a hand like ATs or something might call two cold anyway thinking he has two live overcards.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is still a case for raising on the flop.

1. Don't we want hands like ATs to call two cold thinking they have live outs?

2. There are many hands that would have odds to call the flop for one bet that would not for 2 bets, such as pocket pairs, or a hand with one live overcard.

[ QUOTE ]

The turn will greatly define our equity. A , A, or K turn makes it very unlikely that we have the best hand any longer. A blank turn greatly increase the chance we have the best hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I do and don't agree with you. If AK and the like are in the 3-betting range of BB, than I agree, that an A or K lowers our equity. However, if only Pocket pairs are in the range, it actually increases our equity a little. i.e. an A on the turn makes AA-KK holdings less likely and JJ-TT holdings more likely.

I think calling a 3-bet is close. The call would depend on if UTG or Button was still in. If it was heads up with BB, he would only need to 3-bet with worse hands (JJ, TT) about 10% of the time to make a call down profitable. Based on the AF of 2 you are probably right that a call is spewing. I don't play 5/10, so I don't know the 'trickiness' of the players. I would bet your read is better.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Brett can tell you what line I'll advocate on the turn: Raise and take a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there are many river cards that we could bet again for value (based on action), no?

[bobhalford]

I myself probably would have raised the flop to see if BB calls or raises. But just calling maybe makes more sense. Generally I like to see where I am at on the cheap streets. The problem is that if we call the flop and then raise the turn, we are vulnerable to getting 3-bet which costs us more money when we are behind. In order to raise the turn you may have to be willing to fold to a 3-bet. BB may do this with TT/JJ however and maybe even a flush draw, hoping you have AK. Another problem with not raising on either the flop or turn is that it keeps button in, who may have a suspicious K or A that we lose to on the turn or river when BB has JJ. Tough hand.