River decision with ATo

[gharp]

Dramatis Personae:

BB in this hand is super-passive: 50/0/0.1 over 100+ hands. I have literally never seen him raise. He just calls down flushes, sets, etc -- he varies from your garden variety loose-passive in that he sort of knows how to fold post-f, but calls down with anything remotely reasonable.

UTG is his loose bizarro twin: 59/26/2.1 (100+ hands) Very LAGgy and very bluffy. I've seen him cap the turn w/garbage, bet into pf raisers on scary boards with bottom pair, etc.



Act I:

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks.

River: (4.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero...?


Is this an easy decision? Comments on any and all streets appreciated...

[milesdyson]

checking the flop looks far better than betting, mang.

[WalkAmongUs]

[ QUOTE ]
checking the flop looks far better than betting, mang.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Thats a pretty friggin co-ordinated board.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
checking the flop looks far better than betting, mang.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I think you can probably fold that river. HU I'd call.

[aces_dad]

I agree I don't like calling this river with a villian behind who will likely overcall any hand that beat us.

[Reqtech]

Does anyone think it's a good idea to lead out on the river? If UTG had any piece of that hand on the turn, he would have bet. With BB being ultra passive, he could have absolutely anything and would be my biggest worry.

[Bill Lumberg]

I wouldn't have made it to the river, unless they let me.

Given our reads, these seem like the guys you want to play against when the flop hits, but not otherwise. Given that...

I wonder about the preflop raise. Is UB a 1/3 blind structure? If so, we're putting alot in with only a slim chance that the LPP BB is going to fold. It's worth completing since we can be fairly sure it won't get raised behind us and it should be a big hand if it hits.

Once the flop misses, I'm inclined to check-fold with one overcard + gutshot. If we check and are closing out the action, I might peel one off. I wouldn't call the river bet here.

[detruncate]

We usually don't have e a lot of folding equity on this flop, and we're probably going to be raised quite often.

If we're thinking of calling the river we should raise instead. But the pot is fairly small, your raise is not likely to shake super-passive guy if he has a Q (and maybe not even when he has an 8 even though you say he's capable of folding hopeless hands), you're not likely to be given a lot of credit for a strong hand if anyone is thinking about it at all, and we can't think seriously about calling a 3-bet (unless bizarro aggro guy is actually maniacal) and therefore will lose some % of our chips to bluff-3-bets. The bluff 3-bet is especially worrying since he effectively neutralizes our raise if he does it with anything approaching optimal frequency since we're probably not getting a lot of value from the raise in the first place. I just fold.

[gharp]

I love this forum. I post a hand where I'm asking about the river decision and I have people telling me I should play just about every other street differently...


I think the preflop raise is justified because BB is capable of folding (though I didn't mention that in the read) and I probably have a better hand than both of them.

The flop bet was probably a mistake. These guys will find a reason to call on that board. But if I check it usually gets checked to the LAG who will autobet -- then I have another tough decision...

Reqtech suggested betting the river, since the LAG passed on the turn, which I wish I would've thought of. I think that's better than checking.

But instead I checked it and found myself in a situation where I would probably call heads-up, but felt like I had to fold with someone behind me. So I folded (and so did BB, LAGster took it down), and then immediately found myself wondering if I should've raised -- maybe I'm just being results-oriented though...

I'd fold, pot's not big enough to call when you can only beat a bluff.

[McGahee]

PF - good
flop - check
turn - good
river - I think I like a raise. Seriously.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
But instead I checked it and found myself in a situation where I would probably call heads-up, but felt like I had to fold with someone behind me. So I folded (and so did BB, LAGster took it down), and then immediately found myself wondering if I should've raised -- maybe I'm just being results-oriented though...

[/ QUOTE ]

Bahh - I swear I didn't read this before.
I don't think it's results-oriented unless you were exaggerating your reads. Of course I'm also not a math guy and it has to work a lot to work a lot in a pot this size for it to be +EV; but on the surface it looked to me like a tailor-made spot for a rare bluff raise.

...folds.
They called your auto-bet, and perhaps got a piece of this flop. Even tho this is 6/m, I think you're beat on this river. I don't think any inducement of a bluff makes up for the times you're beat in this tiny pot.