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11-16-2005, 05:28 PM
I'm looking for a chart that gives odds of hitting top pair with a given card. What I mean is, if I hold a K, what the chances are that I will hit the king and that the king will be top pair. I know for A it's about 13.5%. I know I've seen a chart somewhere, but I can't remember where.

LetYouDown
11-16-2005, 08:12 PM
For the entire hand? Almost every question worded this way is asking about the flop, but you never mention it. Clarification might help.

jason_t
11-16-2005, 09:16 PM
Read the subject.

AaronBrown
11-16-2005, 09:20 PM
The tricky part of this question is the probability of someone else holding a higher card. It's easy to answer the probability that you will flop a pair as the top card on the board.

Let N be the rank of your card (J = 11, Q = 12, K = 13 and A = 14). There are 19,600 possible flops. There are three ways to pair your card, plus 4*(N-3) ways to draw a second card that is lower than your highest card and doesn't pair your lower card, plus 4*(N-4) to draw a third card that is lower than your highest card and doesn't pair either your lower card or the second card.

The results are:

A 13.47%
K 11.02%
Q 8.82%
J 6.86%
10 5.14%
9 3.67%
8 2.45%
7 1.47%
6 0.73%
5 0.24%

However, just because an Ace appears on the board doesn't mean it paired for someone. Also, these probabilities exclude flops that give you better than a pair or pair your lower card.