I get myself in trouble in a live game with 88

[sweetjazz]

I am dealt 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the SB at a live 3/6 game (1/3 blind structure) full of horribly loose players who are a mix of passive and erratically aggressive. Three players limp to the HJ who raises, CO folds, button 3-bets. I call. BB calls (he plays 100% of hands), as do all but one of the limpers. For what it's worth, button has shown down AA before in which he did not raise PF and so his 3-bet does not necessarily mean a big hand. He is one of the erratic aggressive players, someone who thinks about the game but often makes deceptive or erratic plays.

My preflop call is meh in my opinion. Given the high rake (10% up to $4 plus $1 for the BBJ), it's probably a little -EV. Feel free to comment on it if you like, but I think the postflop is more interesting.

Flop comes 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. It is checked around to the button who bets. Should I raise, call, or fold? (FWIW, I suspect that almost everyone at the table will call one or two bets with any piece of the board or a gutshot. Some will call with runner-runner draws or a single overcard.)

Just call the flop bet. You should not checkraise the flop, even if you knew you had the best hand becuz a checkraise will not protect your hand. After the button bets there is 22sb in the pot, if you checkraise everyone will be getting 24-2 to call or 12-1, meaning anyone with any piece, two overcards, or gutshot still has a profitable call. You need to call the flop bet and wait to the turn before you make a move. On the turn assuming you dont hit an eight and the pot is still multiway, you will have two options, check with the intention of folding or check with the intetion of raising(checking and calling is not an option since this wont protect your hand the few times it is best), which action is correct will depend on many variables some of which include the action on the flop, and what the turn card is. Heres a couple examples, if theres just a bunch of calls or folds on the flop, and the turn is a 2,3,6,or 7. I would go for the checkraise since there might be a chance that you have the best hand, and in this large pot, you only need a small chance to make this raise correct. Now if the turn was an Ace, then check and fold.

[B Dids]

Raising seems bad, you're not folding anybody by your own admission, so you're raising for value in a pot where you likely won't win unimproved.

If they're start folding on the turn, call and raise a turn you like?

I don't think anything would be wrong with folding here.

[jason_t]

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I don't think anything would be wrong with folding here.

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He's getting 1000000:1.

[B Dids]

Good point.

Call. Raising is lame.

[BWebb]

Raising is a waste of a SB or more since you aren't getting anyone to fold here and you open yourself up to a 3-bet.

Edited to say call, it's not close.

[jason_t]

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Good point.

Call. Raising is lame.

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It's not that simple.

[BWebb]

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Good point.

Call. Raising is lame.

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It's not that simple.

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It could be a fold if the table is very aggro postflop and there is a chance it gets raised and reraised behind.

[sweetjazz]

In real life, I folded on the flop. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif I won't try to rationalize it. I don't think folding is horrible here, but I do think it's wrong. (Even though there was some nontrivial chance someone would checkraise behind me.)

But let's say I had called instead. (I think calling is better than raising, as I'd like to see a cheap turn card before deciding further where I am going with this hand.)

Turn is the 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. (So the board reads 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.)

Action starts with me. Do I check or bet?

[jason_t]

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Good point.

Call. Raising is lame.

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It's not that simple.

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It could be a fold if the table is very aggro postflop and there is a chance it gets raised and reraised behind.

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Yeah, that's what I meant by "it's not that simple."

[BWebb]

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In real life, I folded on the flop. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif I won't try to rationalize it. I don't think folding is horrible here, but I do think it's wrong. (Even though there was some nontrivial chance someone would checkraise behind me.)

But let's say I had called instead. (I think calling is better than raising, as I'd like to see a cheap turn card before deciding further where I am going with this hand.)

Turn is the 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. (So the board reads 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.)

Action starts with me. Do I check or bet?

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Depends on action after you 'call' the flop (how many callers, was there a raise)

[sweetjazz]

Whoops! I completely forget to mention that. After the flop bet, I folded, everyone else (or maybe everyone but one person) called. (There was no check raise.)

For the sake of discussion, I think we can safely assume that it would have been the same action had I called. (Indeed many of them were grabbing their chips as soon as the flop bet was put in by the button.)

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In real life, I folded on the flop. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif I won't try to rationalize it. I don't think folding is horrible here, but I do think it's wrong. (Even though there was some nontrivial chance someone would checkraise behind me.)

But let's say I had called instead. (I think calling is better than raising, as I'd like to see a cheap turn card before deciding further where I am going with this hand.)

Turn is the 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. (So the board reads 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.)

Action starts with me. Do I check or bet?

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This is a great card for you, you should checkraise the turn on this card, as the pot is huge, and you only need to have the best hand here a small percentage of the time to make this play correct.

[B Dids]

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Good point.

Call. Raising is lame.

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It's not that simple.

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It could be a fold if the table is very aggro postflop and there is a chance it gets raised and reraised behind.

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Yeah, that's what I meant by "it's not that simple."

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My assumption when I suggested a call was that that chance did not exist based on his description of the action and of the players.

Mostly- I think raising seems horrible though.

[Kailia Marie]

Hi everybody,

For the hypothesized turn, checkraising is not a good option. I can explain by asking a question.

How often will the preflop 3-bettor bet again on the turn after getting called in every spot on the flop with a hand that you beat?

/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

[jubeirm]

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Hi everybody,

For the hypothesized turn, checkraising is not a good option. I can explain by asking a question.

How often will the preflop 3-bettor bet again on the turn after getting called in every spot on the flop with a hand that you beat?

/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

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Perhaps not in most games. But, here we have a "mix of passive and erratically aggressive" players and one "aggressive" player on the button. If you think the button is aggresive enough to bet again on this board I think a check-raise would work a lot of the time.

How bad is it getting checked through? Your opponents straight possibilities are gone and maybe someone picked up a flush draw, but with the reads you give I don't see them folding to a bet. Next, I have to wonder how many cards are left that can make a second best hand now a winning hand on the river. Does this probability out weigh the probability it will get checked through. I would say no and go for the check raise. Other opinions welcome as usual.

[ellipse_87]

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How bad is it getting (the turn) checked through?

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For starters, there are 5 overcards that we don't want to see. So, free look at river = no good. Kailia makes a good point.

Does the OP think that maybe we are better off simulating trips and getting people to fold that way? From his description, Aces and Kings may still call for 1. Then again, button needs to be kind of crazy not to check behind without a J or good pocket pair, when 4 or 5 have called his flop bet.

One thing that no one's mentioned is that one of the aggressives closer to our right might very well bluff this scare card anyway. I think I bet out on the turn as my last best chance to fold overcards.

[sweetjazz]

Kalia makes a very good point about the turn play. It's especially good because we are unlikely to get raised unless someone has trip fives (which is good, because our bet is based on the possibility of winning the hand UI and also of spiking an 8 on the river).

But since I wasn't in the hand, I can only tell you what happened (and again, presumably the action would have been the same had I called the flop and checked the turn). The turn was checked around.

River was the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. (So the final board is 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.)

Assuming I were still in the hand, what should my river plan be? Seems like the choices would be check/fold, check/call 1 but check/fold 2, bet/fold, and bet/call 1. I think one of these is clearly best, but maybe it's worth discussing to make sure my thinking is right.

[sweetjazz]

As far as the river goes, I think bet/fold is by far the best line here. That is because we have a hand that now has some showdown value, given how passively the postflop has played out. Worse hands (pair of 4s, pair of 3s) will call but won't bet. At the same time, if we check and it is bet, it's likely to be a hand that beats ours but there's probably some small probability that it is someone betting randomly at the pot trying to take it away. (Or it could be that there is one person at the table who is willing to bet his pair of 4s, though everyone else would just check or call with that same pair of 4s.) So check/folding seems wrong. And finally bet/calling seems wrong because a raise at this point would almost always have to be either trip 5s that missed a turn check raise or a rivered straight.