Bellagio Satellite Deal Proposal

[Mez]

This is a satellite to a daily Bellagio $540. Entry to the satellite is $130, 10 people start, 2 win entries $540. Starting chips 1,500.

We’re down to 3 handed. Blinds 200/400, no ante. Big Stack 11,200. Loose player 1,800 and me 2,000.

Reads:
Loose player is to my left and has been willing to gamble with mediocre hands. He made his chips by catching lucky calling allin with a flush draw and calling allin with A3 vs AA.

Big Stack is pretty solid and wants to sit on his chips, but won’t fold a legitimate hand preflop.

I have not shown down a hand the entire table and have been allin or fold for the past 15 minutes. I’ve been stealing blinds often enough to try to maintain my chips and my table image is probably loose-aggressive.

The deal offered is that big stack gets an entry, and loose player pays me $285 to get the second entry. I will not buy in to the tourney after the deal – I only planned to play if I won a seat. I'm currently the BB. Thoughts?

[ClockWyze]

No Deal!!

If you feel you are a better bubble player then loose player.

did you play all that time to win $155 ?? I go for what I came for - play for the seat

If you got the seat - good luck in the tournament /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[UMTerp]

Assuming you value your tournament entry at $540, your current equity is more than $285. You seem to think you're more skilled than your opponent at this stage of the game, and being on his left is advantageous at this point. Play on.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to think you're more skilled than your opponent at this stage of the game, and being on his left is advantageous at this point. Play on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Positives:
I believe I'm more skilled than either player left.
Big stack doesn't want to get into confrontations.

Negatives:
I have 5xBB and only 4 min left until its 300/600(forgot to post this).
The loosey is to MY immediate left, so he has position on me 2 of ev 3 hands.
Table image - They see me as the bully, which I beleive has degraded my folding equity.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
The loosey is to MY immediate left, so he has position on me 2 of ev 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

"First to act" is the advantageous position at this point*, since the first chips in the pot will often take it down. It's not like he's going to have position on you postflop, since all the money is going in beforehand.

* I wrote this backwards in my previous post. You definitely want to act before him though.

[lacky]

the deal is fair. He's offering 285, taking 255. Weither your interested is up to you, but it's a fair offer

Your actual equity is ~$294.

P.S. Is your first name Jared and did you go to Brown?

depends on whether the money means anything to you. If it does not then go for 1st and forget the deal. If the money means something to you then you have to take the deal, you are severely short stacked especially if you take the chip leaders stack into consideration. Also, everyone thinks they are more skilled than their opponent more times than not. In addition at only 5xBB you have almost zero FE. You would need to do some quick chip accumulation to regain any FE.

[UMTerp]

It's "fair enough", but you're taking a very slight EV hit when you consider the remote possibility that the big stack still finishes 3rd.

What it basically boils down to IMO is how much you want to play the tourney, and how much gamble you have in you. Theoretically, it's probably less than a $10 decision EV-wise.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
Your actual equity is ~$294.

P.S. Is your first name Jared and did you go to Brown?

[/ QUOTE ]

No and I wish.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The chip leader is irrelevant, 1st and 2nd pay the same.

[KingDan]

Bigstack get a seat for free in this situation. There is always the chance he will finish 3rd

Besides I'm a cocky mofo and I didn't play to win 150. I play on.

[Newt_Buggs]

Its a reasonably fair deal. I'de gambol it up and play anyway though.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
depends on whether the money means anything to you. If it does not then go for 1st and forget the deal. If the money means something to you then you have to take the deal, you are severely short stacked especially if you take the chip leaders stack into consideration. Also, everyone thinks they are more skilled than their opponent more times than not. In addition at only 5xBB you have almost zero FE. You would need to do some quick chip accumulation to regain any FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

The money does have some value (especially that day when I lost my stack twice in NL cash getting cold decked with KK vs oppennents Aces).

I'm not the type to always think that I'm more skilled, but my opponents were making obvious errors (not calling with pot odds, bad calls with weak aces). Although any skill advantage is severly diluted given my stack.

My fold equity was actually not all gone - they were still folding to my allins, however, they were getting worn down as I began pushing every 3 or 4 hands.

Take the cash.

Put it on Black.

Play the tournie.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
It's "fair enough", but you're taking a very slight EV hit when you consider the remote possibility that the big stack still finishes 3rd.


[/ QUOTE ]

I do realize that - however, explaining that to the big stack wasn't very successful.

I denied a deal for a few hands, down to 3 min before the next level (300-600). Ultimately, I did take the deal as it was becoming clear that I would be lucky to get my chips in as a 60-40 favorite and it would be a coin flip between me and Mr Loosey.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
Take the cash.
Put it on Black.
Play the tournie.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow useful advice from a guy with 26 posts.

Do you play Warcraft?

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you play Warcraft?

[/ QUOTE ]

don't even know what that is. I thought this was a poker site (used to be a good one), maybe I'm wrong.