Get your money in where you are a ...........favorite???

[DaNoob]

One table $5 S&G NLHE on Stars. I've been lucky enough to double up early in the tournament and have been protecting a chip lead for a small while. I've been playing somewhat tight, but using my stack when the time is right. Then, this hand comes up.

Blinds are 25/50, I've got T2800 and find myself UTG with 33. I know this isn't a great limping hand from UTG, so flame away, but I've been playing a little looser since I have a nice stack to fall back on. If I don't hit my set, I'm mucking the 3s and will muck PF to any sizeable raise.

Folded around to the BB, who checks. Flop comes 6 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif . WHOHOOOOO!!!

BB (T1400) bets 600 into me. Thinking he's got top pair or an over pair, with a possible flush draw, I decide to put him all-in. (this was my thinking at the time, but seems a bit sketchy now).

BB turns over 5 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif for the flush draw and straight draw. A 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif arrives via the River and he gets both the straight and the flush (and almost the straight flush).

When the hand ended, I chalked it up to bad luck, consoling myself for getting my money in when I had the best of it. Proceed to 2dimes to verify, and found out that he was actually the favorite to win that hand. HA!!! Just shows I've got a lot to learn.

Feel free to FLAME, but don't spend all your ammo, cause I've got a real flamer coming.....

[Guy McSucker]

Proceed to 2dimes to verify, and found out that he was actually the favorite to win that hand.

I was going to say this:


I'm pretty sure twodimes is wrong on this one. He has 14 outs, and it takes 18 to be favourite over a set.

He will hit a straight or flush more than half the time, but you fill up some of the time to rob him of his glory, making you a 3-2 favourite.


But then I checked twodimes myself and it gets it right...

Guy.

[DaNoob]

Huh,

I must have keyed in the wrong hands last night when I looked it up. Thanks for correcting me, I feel much better about my play now /forums/images/icons/cool.gif .

[Guy McSucker]

I just checked the logs at twodimes, and there was a hand a lot like this one: 3s3d vs 8h5h. I guess this was the one you put in.

You didn't include the flop! Preflop he was a tiny favourite - small pairs really suck - but after the flop you have a healthy advantage.

Guy.

[DaNoob]

I think I just walked into the twilight zone of twodimes. First of all, it's kind of funny walking through the logs, it seems like the Airplane Graveyard of BAD BEATS.

Secondly, if you click on that hand (it was mine), it pulls up the full query:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=36643
pokenum -h 5h 8h - 3s 3d / 3h 6h 7d
Holdem Hi: 1221759 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8h 5h 646716 52.93 547986 44.85 27057 2.21 0.540
3s 3d 547986 44.85 646716 52.93 27057 2.21 0.460

Instead of putting the board in the board section, I put it in the Dead Cards. His overpair, flush, and straight draws were favored over my 33 with one 3 in the muck. Too funny.

[Magician]

I would've done the same thing - shove all in.

If he turned out to have only one of the two draws or if he turned out to have top pair + kicker it would have been an even better decision.

[Magician]

So is it safe to conclude that if you have a pocket pair and flop a set that you are always a favorite over an opponent with both a flush and open-ended straight draw?

If one of the pocket cards in your hand matches the suit on the board, I presume you become a slightly bigger favorite?

Essentially, the fact that you have a 1 in 3 chance of improving to a fullhouse by the river is what robs the straight/flush drawing opponent of having the best of it?

[DaNoob]

As far as I can tell, yes to all of the above. And yet, two of my sets got busted yesterday with similar draws.

hmmmm...

[Guy McSucker]

So is it safe to conclude that if you have a pocket pair and flop a set that you are always a favorite over an opponent with both a flush and open-ended straight draw?


Yes.

If one of the pocket cards in your hand matches the suit on the board, I presume you become a slightly bigger favorite?


No: I don't think it makes any difference. That card is not an out for your opponent whether you hold it or not, because flushes lose to quads. I guess if it would give him a straight flush then it's better for you to be holding it.

Essentially, the fact that you have a 1 in 3 chance of improving to a fullhouse by the river is what robs the straight/flush drawing opponent of having the best of it?

Yes. The way I think of it when approximating is that even if he hits on fourth street you have 10 outs to win on the river, so his chances of winning are almost 25% less than his chances of hitting.

Guy.