JJ - Hand Protection [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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POKhER

11-16-2005, 07:22 AM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.fourthnut.com/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero Wonders if he should Raise... Or Call.

What would you do /images/graemlins/smile.gif?

Raise - Bloats the pot, We're probably ahead so its for value, People have called so won't fold for one more.

Call - Doesn't bloat pot, Get to see turn cheaper and a turn raise is far more affective(Bets increase, Pot isn't as large, one card to come)?

Opinions.
I posted a hand a while ago on protection, everyone said "nah just raise, value..." So what about this?

adsman

11-16-2005, 07:30 AM

It's a co-ordinated board and I don't think anyones going anywhere. The pot is big but you want to protect your hand. I call planning to raise a blank on the Turn.

11-16-2005, 07:38 AM

Im raising for value.

11-16-2005, 07:39 AM

grunch

I think this is a good application of the two overpairs strategy in SSH. We only have a small edge now and a lot of cards can cripple us. I would call and raise if a safe card falls on the turn for all the reasons you mentioned in your post.

11-16-2005, 07:44 AM

Raising does not protect your hand.
Call the flop and raise turn if its a safe card.

Arguably you can raise for value, but I dont think your edge is so big that you have to do this.

POKhER

11-16-2005, 07:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising does not protect your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
No one said it did /images/graemlins/blush.gif

11-16-2005, 08:19 AM

I would only call this flop bet, planning to raise if a safe card comes on the turn

You can not protect your hand here. Raising also further sweetens the pot, making it difficult to protect your hand on the turn.

As for the value bet...against 6 players, and a co-ordinated board like this and the risk of overcards, your equity edge is probably not that big....

L

11-16-2005, 08:35 AM

nah just raise, value...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

245,734 games 7.140 secs 34,416 games/sec

Board: 3h 7h 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.0291 % 19.93% 00.10% { JcJs }
Hand 2: 13.3624 % 12.17% 01.20% { random }
Hand 3: 13.2998 % 12.12% 01.18% { random }
Hand 4: 13.3253 % 12.15% 01.18% { random }
Hand 5: 13.3086 % 12.14% 01.17% { random }
Hand 6: 13.3834 % 12.19% 01.20% { random }
Hand 7: 13.2916 % 12.10% 01.20% { random }

11-16-2005, 08:36 AM

You wont be able to protect your hand at the turn either. Anyone with a gutshot will be profitable to call the turn anyway so just get the money in there. I dont think UTG+1 will bet into a field of 5-6 players on the turn anyway if he doesnt have a good hand so Im not convinced we have a better hand than him, should he bet the turn. Just get the money in and take the other players money.

11-16-2005, 09:00 AM

There are many cards that will drastically change the pot equity on the turn (basically every card heart, overs, straight etc). Your equity will either go up or down pending on the card.

My line is that foregoing some small edge on the flop, when you know that the equity will change drastically on the turn is correct.

Flawed line of thinking?

L

RustyCJ

11-16-2005, 09:17 AM

Trying to learn so forgive my newbieness with this post.

Raising the turn *when a safe card comes* - what cards do we WANT to see here?

any non-heart first of all, a 9 or T should be safe, other than that, anything can be semi scary - 2 thru 8 could be bad, and any overcards could be ugly.

I do not disagree with the turn raise if a good card comes, what I'm asking is what do you consider good cards on this board? This board feels like there are more scare cards that can come than safe ones. I'm just trying to learn.

11-16-2005, 09:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
nah just raise, value...

[/ QUOTE ]

Eskimo-

I know we have an equity edge here, but I still think it is too small to raise on the flop. No matter what we do here our equity will change drastically on the turn. There are lot of cards out there that could hurt us. If no overcards, hearts, or 5/6's fall our equity jumps up big time. If one of those do fall our equity tanks. Hence, I think that waiting for the turn is best.

11-16-2005, 09:37 AM

Raising to Protect Hand: Won't a raise protect your hand against the button and BB if all they have is an ace? (Button coldcalled preflop - does this tell you anything?) They might throw away gutshots at this point too.

The other 3 players, you would be raising them for value -- what's JJ's equity against ,say, a flush draw, straight draw and an overcard?

A raise could also be used in part for information to see if you're up against a set or two pair (43). No reads though, so not sure if players would chuck 43 preflop.

Anyway, the question is basically does it logically make sense to raise for combined reasons of protecting and pot equity?

WalkAmongUs

11-16-2005, 09:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I know we have an equity edge here, but I still think it is too small to raise on the flop. No matter what we do here our equity will change drastically on the turn. There are lot of cards out there that could hurt us. If no overcards, hearts, or 5/6's fall our equity jumps up big time. If one of those do fall our equity tanks. Hence, I think that waiting for the turn is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I very much agree. An equity advantage of ~7% is NOT enough to push for value on this board since your hand will be ruined a significant amount of the time. You make more money by waiting for the turn card. Not only will you have a much bigger pot equity advantage when a safe card falls but you also capitalize on it by getting in an extra DOUBLE size bet.

11-16-2005, 09:47 AM

For those advocating a raise here, if you have it handy, got to p.187 of SSH and look at the ThTd example. It is not identical, but it is very similar to the hand posted by POKher and I think shows excellent reasons to wait for the turn on the hand in question.

BoogerFace

11-16-2005, 10:11 AM

*grunch*

Easy value raise - and you have players behind you.

11-16-2005, 10:12 AM

This is an interesting hand

There is a couple of reasons\contributing factors.

1. Everyone except the button has a limped hand and fairly random cards.

2. Your sh!tty relative position to the bettor.

3. Your hand is impossible to protect on the flop BUT

The most important fact - it also makes it impossible to protect on the TURN aswell.

ie.
Flop
Hero calls.
TURN
Card = Brick Pot = ~8BB
UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero Raises
In this situation, you are offering 13:1 odds.

4. The flop.
Because of the ragged flop, there is only a very small number of "safe cards".

2, 8, 9, T, J. (non /images/graemlins/heart.gif)

this is not to say that any are safe. 88, 99, TT are definitely staying in this hand.
And any one of these cards likely sets up redraws for the river. Also, once that card falls on the turn, it fails to be a safe card on the river.

 You could come up with arguements for raising the flop - getting value while you still have it. 

 You could argue waiting for the turn, where a safe card will add greatly to the value you gain from your raise 

 You could argue waiting for the river to raise. As you likely have hidden outs (against 2pr) and you can see any action leading up to it and whether villians' draws come in. Also getting 3bet on the turn would lick balls. 

 You could also argue for calling down and folding if it's two to you + you may be drawing to 1 out on the flop

BTW. HAND PROTECTION never really plays that much of a factor.

11-16-2005, 12:27 PM

I know that. I said it because the poster asked what you would do and I like to say why I do/don't do things.

So... when I am raising I am either protecting or raising for value. Since I cant protect, and my edge is thin. I call.

Thats why! /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

gopnik

11-16-2005, 12:35 PM

I think this is a perfect example to wait for the turn to raise.

11-16-2005, 12:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a perfect example to wait for the turn to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Waiting for the turn may very well be the right answer but this is far from a perfect example of this concept.

POKhER

11-16-2005, 12:46 PM

Continuing the action, In the heat of battle i didn't see logic... and raised severly bloating the pot but pushing a tiny edge i assume i have.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.fourthnut.com/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero...

Call down? Fold? Reraise?

11-16-2005, 01:08 PM

The 3 falling adds the J:hearts: to your outs.

Getting 18.25:1 immediate odds.

Call.

POKhER

11-16-2005, 01:18 PM

Finally.. the riverrrrroooonniii

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.fourthnut.com/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (20.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero ...

We folding to suspected trips/FH/Flush? Or are we calling due to pot size with no fear?

TomBrooks

11-16-2005, 01:53 PM

Turn is a call, especially with full house chances.

River is a call with a 20BB pot.

TomBrooks

11-16-2005, 01:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not only will you have a much bigger pot equity advantage when a safe card falls but you also capitalize on it by getting in an extra DOUBLE size bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this idea of often being able to get a double size bet in on the turn if you don't raise the flop and you want to raise the turn.

WalkAmongUs

11-16-2005, 02:00 PM

this is a tought decision. Thats a fairly big pot. You're getting 21:1 on your call. The only thing that scares me is you have 2 players behind you that could easily raise...

I don't know if its right, but I'd probably call.

POKhER

11-16-2005, 02:27 PM

Yeah i called and lost to 3x. The other called had KJhh for a flush.

So i double lost /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Think i went wrong on the flop personally.