Digging out of this hole

[SossMan]

Hero is top 10 in chips with 30 players remaining in a $33r for a PCA seat. (one seat only, 2nd = dick)

Hero has ~25k
Villian on Button is tourney chip leader w/ ~60k
A few others around 20-30k range at the table.
Hero has a pretty TAG image. The last hand he played was a flat call of a small all in w/ TT. 3rd player bet the dry side on Kxx flop and hero set 3rd player in. 3rd player folded, all in had AA, hero hits T on river.

Just before that, hero called a minraise on the button after two coldcallers w/ QTs. Hit trips on the flop, bet when checked to and everyone folded.

Villian has been active in many pots, usually the aggressor.

BB = 600 (w/ antes)
Hero opens 3x from LMP w/ As9s.
Only villian calls on the button.
Blinds fold

Flop is A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Pot is 4500'ish.

Hero bets 3500.
Villian makes it 10,200 to go (t6700 more)

Hero has around 22k behind if he folds.

and...?

[mlagoo]

i fold this in a shot =/ this may be a leak?

My first thought is just to push because the flop is so draw-heavy. This is a very tough spot.

(Editted out stupid thing.)

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
My first thought is just to push because the flop is so draw-heavy. This is a very tough spot.

What does everyone think about villain leaving himself with ~1/4 pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian on Button is tourney chip leader w/ ~60k

[/ QUOTE ]

[schwza]

given your description of villain, i probably move in. i think he has a million different pair+gutshot hands here or draws or what not, and he's going to play them fast. if it were regular MTT payout, i'd fold.

but i'm always the one saying push, so maybe that's a leak.

[CardSharpCook]

I'm really confused as to why villian wouldn't push. I let this go. Believe his agression. A9 isn't a strong hand any more.

[Annulus]

His range includes a ton of made hands that has you beat, from AK to lots of 2 pair combos to staight. flush draw is also very possible, but I think this is a very easy fold and not worth finding out.

[EverettKings]

You'd think he wouldn't try to get you off your hand when the pfr sees an AQJ flop. This looks more like he wants action than anything. I guess he could have a flush draw but he could have lots of other stuff that beats you. The real question is, would he do this with a worse ace? I feel like he'd just be calling. This feels bad. I think I can find a better spot against him.

Everett

[SossMan]

FWIW, I'm not the hero.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really confused as to why villian wouldn't push. I let this go. Believe his agression. A9 isn't a strong hand any more.

[/ QUOTE ]

what makes you think he should push?

I think calling is the best option. Villian doesnt feel like the type that would call preflop with too many better aces. Would push back prob. with AK, AQ, maybe AJ. Eliminating that from his range, the most likely are twenty hands KJ, KQ, AT, or some type of flush draw like 98h. I would call, and if board bricks, Push.

[SossMan]

I don't know how to identify a brick. There are too many combo draws (esp w/ the Ah)

Pooooosh.


Board: Ac Qh Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8242 % 45.27% 07.56% { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, 8h7h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1758 % 39.62% 07.56% { As9s }

This range doesn't include bluffs.

[Roman]

No read on villian? I fold this.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Pooooosh.


Board: Ac Qh Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8242 % 45.27% 07.56% { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, 8h7h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1758 % 39.62% 07.56% { As9s }

This range doesn't include bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ] The problem with this calculation is that it assumes all hands that you put the villian on are equally likely (given the cards that are left in the deck and the cards that are needed to make the hands you put the villian on).

[Sam T.]

Tough position. I started to make the argument that the villain would not make this play without a strong hand, but changed my mind. Hero's range is pretty wide here (I'll go with AA-77, KQs-T9s, AK-AJ), so thanks to his position the villain can call with similar range.

When the Hero c-bets, villain still doesn't know much except that the Hero has either an ace or a pulse - nobody's eyes pop out when the PF raiser bets at an ace-high flop.

For his part, the villain probably caught at least a piece of the flop. Decent pair, some sort of draw, or both. So now what? Well, the c-bet is hardly proof of an ace, and you've got the big stack, so why not use it? If the Hero comes over the top of your raise, you fold and have t50k - 83 BBs, which even a donk like me can work with. So raise and put Hero to the test.

Back to Hero. Villain is making this play with a wide range of hands, but he is probably either ahead or has a draw. In a normal tournament I can see the argument for folding, but in a first-or-bust situation, it's much tougher. You need a big stack.

I'm pushing.

[locutus2002]

[ QUOTE ]
given your description of villain, i probably move in. i think he has a million different pair+gutshot hands here or draws or what not, and he's going to play them fast. if it were regular MTT payout, i'd fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero is about even in hand. I'd expect villain to turn up a pair w/ a gutshot, and and backdooor and be 50% in the hand.

[durron597]

I wouldn't bet this flop. I want to be the guy putting in the (check)raise to 10k.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't bet this flop. I want to be the guy putting in the (check)raise to 10k.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?

I guess the plan is to ch-raise to 10k and fold to a push?

[Double Eagle]

This seems like a pretty easy fold as hero is either a little ahead or drawing dead....

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pooooosh.


Board: Ac Qh Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8242 % 45.27% 07.56% { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, 8h7h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo-A8o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1758 % 39.62% 07.56% { As9s }

This range doesn't include bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ] The problem with this calculation is that it assumes all hands that you put the villian on are equally likely (given the cards that are left in the deck and the cards that are needed to make the hands you put the villian on).

[/ QUOTE ]

This effect is more than countered by the fact that bluffs are left out.

judging by the prizes you listed, if you were female or gay, you might enjoy taking 2nd place

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm really confused as to why villian wouldn't push. I let this go. Believe his agression. A9 isn't a strong hand any more.

[/ QUOTE ]

what makes you think he should push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Misread the info. You said "6500 more" - I thought that that was how much more he had.

[ QUOTE ]

pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?


[/ QUOTE ]

Is villain checking behind with a draw?

any non heart from 6 down. the more i think about it, the more i think you have to include mid pp's in the range. 99-66. that makes the call even more appropriate. earlier on this site, someone was asking for advice about how to steal a pot with 55 and a board of A-Q-J, so anything is possible.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?


[/ QUOTE ]

Is villain checking behind with a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

when a preflop raiser checks on that board and I have a draw to beat a set, I would most certainly check behind.

[FrogMouth]

Calling is stupid, and pushing gives him ~3/1 on a call. Very marginal situation. Fold, you WILL have better opportunities than this!

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't bet this flop. I want to be the guy putting in the (check)raise to 10k.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty scary flop to be giving a free card on, no?

I guess the plan is to ch-raise to 10k and fold to a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, my plan is to checkraise to 10k and fold to a push.

I think that this is the sort of flop that almost always gets bet by villian, unless he has like 88 which I am not too worried about anyway. I think he bets here with like KQ a lot of the time.

If a scare card hits the turn (any broadway) I am happy to get out of this hand with so chips invested in a satellite situation when I have a large stack already. I'm not particularly afraid of hearts because the hearts on board are big and unless he's calling me with a crap suited ace I'm way way way behind already.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
No read on villian? I fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain has played a lot of pots, usually the aggressor. reread the OP. against an unknown, i agree it's a fold.

[Jason Strasser]

Soss,

Tell the hero to check the flop. There are drawbacks to checking like if bad guy has K2s and then see's a free turn, but there are more benefits to checking.

The first is that so many draws and hands that are behind will CR you. So if you bet, I'm probably going to stick it in, especially given the tournament conditions that its 1st or nada. So if you bet you gotta assume an aggressive opponent with KQ QJ JT Ax, flush draw, blah blah, will put you to the test here.

Checking behind keeps the pot managable. Then on the turn if he checks to you, go ahead and value bet. You are far less likely to get CR by a worse hand on the turn.

-Jason

[Exitonly]

hero doesn't have position in this hand

[Jason Strasser]

OOOPS

Check and decide then.

Its so hard without position.

[locutus2002]

I'd push because hero only has to be 35% in the hand because of the overlay. I estimate hero is ~40% in the hand given villain's range which I think is any broadway, any two hearts, j9, any ace. I think its EV+ to play the hand, and hero will have to commit all his chips, so do it while there might be some FE.

given the winner take all payout, there are no better opportunities.

Hero shouldn't have opened a9 if he wasn't prepared to go down with the hand against an aggressive villain who is capable/likely to raise the worst hand on an ace high flop.

[SossMan]

<u>Hero shouldn't have opened a9 if he wasn't prepared to go down with the hand against an aggressive villain who is capable/likely to raise the worst hand on an ace high flop.</u>

and maybe there is the real problem. Does anyone have an issue w/ opening 3x in our spot from 3 off the button?

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Hero shouldn't have opened a9 if he wasn't prepared to go down with the hand against an aggressive villain who is capable/likely to raise the worst hand on an ace high flop.</u>

and maybe there is the real problem. Does anyone have an issue w/ opening 3x in our spot from 3 off the button?

[/ QUOTE ]


I dont see how theres anything wrong with opening A9s from that position and considering a fold on a pretty stacked board. It's not like villain was in the blinds, he cold called here, and thats gotta be a scary board for him too, i really doubt he's bluffing, so best case i think has to be that he's betting a combo draw or something, and it can obviously be much worse for us. I think even with this villain i fold to a raise there.

or maybe do what strassa said, check to him and see what he does.

--

and i think i raise A9s there nearly every time.