Tricky Hand for HUSH Final Days

[Danenania]

SB is unknown. Button is 35/25/1.5ish 4-6 handed and plays pretty sensibly postflop. My flop plan was to call the flop then raise most turns if Button didn't raise behind me. Turn call probably isn't too great eh? Odds are there but lots of raising danger behind me and potentially tainted outs. Tell me what y'all think.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17 BB

[baronzeus]

interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

These were my thoughts as well. I think waiting for the turn is interesting here...my default is to raise the flop, though, since I can be confident i'm behind if the pfr 3bets over a bet and a raise and release on the turn UI.

Surf

[Spicymoose]

I like raising the flop, as it will put a ton of pressure on button to fold his overcards, even though he probably has odds to call (as long as he doesn't have a king).

[Stefan_K]

i dont like the turn call, the jack is not a good card i think you are often behind here

I dont know if you can fold this river. Imo button can have a high pp or J10s often enough to make a call profitable. You are after all getting 17:1.

[The Truth]

If I dont raise the flop;

I fold to SB's turn donk bet. It's close odds wise; you are getting 9-1 and you have what? 4-7 clean outs? I think its a reverse implied odds nightmare. Plus chance of raise behind you.

blake

[flawless_victory]

i raise the flop... given your flop play, turn call (first one) looks ugly.
other streets are fine.

[baronzeus]

does anyone really fold the turn with a pair and a gutshot? cuz i dont

Easy flop raise.

This is the kind of predicament you can find yourself in by waiting until the turn with only a pair of nines in a three-way pot.

There's merit to waiting for the turn with intentions of raising any good card or folding any bad card. If you call on a bad card, however, it really defeats the purpose of not raising the flop.

That being said, you also need to call the river raise. He has an overpair often enough for a call to be worthwhile. Also, keep in mind that you didn't play this hand like you have a nine, so he might be raising the river more lightly than you think.

[wheelz]

i also raise the flop, but i think your line is interesting.

i would call the turn but i can see the merits of folding. the river though, i like. if all i knew were his stats then no i don't lay this down, but you say he plays "pretty sensibly" postflop, and although that's not a very indepth read, i just can't see you being good here ever. there is Q9 though... but although he may 3-bet Q9s preflop he won't raise that on every street, right? nope i can't see you beating anything.

and yeah evan i know i suck at life, but i'm gonna play my hula match soon, honest! although i'll probably lose because i haven't played poker in 3 weeks.

[oreogod]

your gutshot will probably net u a split a decent amount of the time and your K puts 4 to a str8 out there and u cant be confident its good.

As far as the river I probably call. I mean worst case scenario he has KQ, or AQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (or TT, JJ). Still Id discount KQ a bit unless he was raising flop and going for a check behind on turn UI. Discount AQs/images/graemlins/diamond.gif a little as well, unless he was pulling a free showdown with a good amount of outs (not a bad move imo).

Intresting hand, but there should be enough doubt that u might want to call the river. Thing is a lot of ppl would just call your river bet, so his river raise is strong-ish but mixed with the weak line u took u probably have to call. SB doesnt have the flush, and u might have played your flush draw (if u had it) stronger, hoping for him to fold to more action. While u will lose this hand a decent amount of the time u will probably win it more often than u think. U basically have to take it down 5.5% of the time.

[wheelz]

so you think he raises the river with an overpair? or are there other worse hands you think he plays like this?

and yeah this probably should be a turn fold.

[krishanleong]

I raise the flop. To knock out the likely overcard holding. I don't like the call at all.

I call the turn both times around. It might be close. But the pot is large and you don't need huge odds.

I don't like the river bet. What is the point. He is betting 99% of his hands on this river including overpairs and 2 pairs which are the only hands that you beat that will call the river. Plus donking on a paired board just looks fishy. Your read says this guy doesn't get out of line but I think AA will raise this river once in a while just to say, "Put that board pairing bluff down!!". Just check and call in a 15BB pot. (Bet-call I think is also okay)

Krishan

[oreogod]

Well its tough because on the flop:
1. Was he raising AA-JJ, or
2. ...was he actually pushing a set w/ TT, or...
3. ...Raising AQ or KQ (QJs could also be in the running) w/ the intention of checking turn UI. (in this case only KQ makes the most sense, where as for AQ did he raise the flop intending for a free card, and then AGAIN raise the turn intending for a free showdown since he picked up a str8 drw on the turn)

So u have to look at those hands and u can work out a percentage he has each one based on his actions and that should help u determine which way to take this baby. Obviously its hard to do this stuff on the fly but thats why u do it here away from the table.

Anyway once u take all the actions from flop to river into account see what u come up with.

AA-QQ:
JJ:
TT:
AQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif:
KQ:
QJs:

[wheelz]

i can see possibly AA-QQ, nothing else, and i don't expect him to raise those on the river. a JQ value raise is really doubtful i think. i guess if dane could assign a percentage to how often he thinks he might get raised on the river by an overpair or JQ we could give a definitive answer. but the fact that he folded tells me we'll probably find out that folding to the raise was a good idea.

yeah check/call might be better than bet/fold on the river. but i think bet/call is in third.

[oreogod]

Well I meant AQ of /images/graemlins/diamond.gif which would give him the flush. But in order for him to have that, he must raise flop and then again raise turn for a free showdown once he also picked up a str8 draw with his flush draw+overs.

Also for my play of the hand. I raise flop because its possible my hand is good. If I get 3bet, I dont mind horribly, as it will definitly slow the SB down (unlikely to donk, or put raise, etc unless hes strong).

If I get 3bet on flop, check Turn...if Button bets and SB calls its 11bbs to me. I could very well be making a -EV call depending on what Button has (like say I have 2 outs at most, my bet costs me about ~<font color="red"> -.44</font> of a BB). But the pot is big and I could very well have at least 3 (sometimes u will have more, sometimes about 2-3 outs) outs easy which brings the call up to only slightly -EV or breakeven-ish.

[Trix]

You sure K9 is enough hand to open when you have that guy behind you, he will probably 3bet many of the better hands that TAGs will fold and K9 seem marginal from CO normally to me.

Flop line seems good as there are alot of hands he wont fold for 2 that you want him to fold.

Turn is probably too optimistic, the 9s are probably worth around 1.5 outs, but the K/Q can´t be worth much, due to splits or losing when making them anyway.
Folding first time is probably the best action.

I´m not sure I like a fold if raised on the river since he may be clowning it up with 98,Q9 or such. He will probably bet alot of the time if we check, so check-calling might be better.

[Jeff W]

Raise the flop.

Edit: I mis-stoved earlier and included too many KQ combinations. I think you should still check river though because you can get SB to subsidize your pot and it seems unlikely that a strong pair is checking behind. I like a checkraise though, because our equity is actually ~63% in my estimation:

Board: 4d 9h Td 9d Jh
equity (%)
37.5% { TT+, 44, AdJd, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd, QJo }
62.5% { Kd9s }

So, even if he only 3-bets a better hand and you always pay off it's correct to checkraise because of SB's contribution. OTOH, if you think he's checking behind a lot because the 9d is a scare card, then I like your bet-fold.

[TStoneMBD]

definitely gotta raise this flop imo

turn i would fold because your outs are somewhat tainted, but more importantly you are risking yourself to facing 2 more bets back to you. SB is really representing a huge hand by his flop smoothcall turn bet line. it seems that he doesnt want to eliminate you from the pot even though its a draw heavy board. i think you get 3bet pretty frequently on the turn.

im unsure about the river but i trust jeff

[Chobohoya]

I know it's been said, but raise the flop.

Given the action of the actualy hand, I would say fold the turn. Your meagre outs and terrible reverse implied odds make it pretty clear in my mind.

Baron, would you mind giving more thoughts on why you call the turn?

As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[Jeff W]

Also, I think it's important to note that SB is rarely going to have a better hand here, but his presence does make the set combinations for Mr. 35/25/1.5 less likely. When an unknown(read: someone who isn't a regular) at 20/40 plays a hand like this, most of the time they are going to be completely full of [censored].

[Lmn55d]

Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I give up. You win, pokerstove. I know better than to post this early in the morning.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the flop, as it will put a ton of pressure on button to fold his overcards, even though he probably has odds to call (as long as he doesn't have a king).

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple points about the reasoning behind my flop call.

1.) Making overcards fold. Which overcards am I worried about? Which can I make fold on the flop? KQ/KJ with 7 outs against me are going nowehere on the flop but will most likely fold to a turn raise. AK only has 3 outs against me so I'm not too worried about letting that see a turn card especially when it's so obvious that he's improved with it. AQ is more of a problem with the 6 outs + backdoor but is AQ alone worth foregoing the chance to make KQ/KJ fold? Not sure but I'm sure it seems close.

2.) Information: calling clearly allows me to gauge the strength of each opponent's hand and I can fold easily for two bets if button raises and SB reraises behind him. If I raise and one of the two 3-bets behind me I will be roped into continuing with no idea how live my outs are. Improving on the turn could be a reverse implied odds nightmare.

3.) I think it's reasonable to say that when SB donks the flop his most likely hands are some kind of very strong hand or some kind of draw or weak bluff. So raising a decent turn card and taking free SD is the most effective way to see a SD against HIS range.

[Danenania]

River check/call or checkraise is an interesting approach. Given everything we know about this player how likely do we think it is that he bets an overpair or decent pair/two pair like QT/AT/AJ/KJ/JT/etc. on this river? I mean is there any way my hand could possibly look more like a flush draw give then way it was played? On the other hand SB is sitting there looking sooo likely to call with a bad hand so it may be tough for him not to bet. Can we figure out what percentage he has to be betting an overpair to make betting, check/calling, or check/raising best? In some ways SB's presence makes me want to bet even more since if he has a made hand he'll probably overcall pretty often, so I am risking more than 1 BB by checking when I'm ahead.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement. Of course betting has value. Button is calling with QQ-AA, AJ, AT, JT, KJ, etc. And SB is likely to call with lots of hands too. Check/calling or checkraising may have more value but there are definite merits to betting.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems people are somewhat divided on a turn call. I think I probably should have folded but it certainly has to be close. Figuring out the EV of a call vs. fold would be a pretty difficult analysis.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement. Of course betting has value. Button is calling with QQ-AA, AJ, AT, JT, KJ, etc. And SB is likely to call with lots of hands too. Check/calling or checkraising may have more value but there are definite merits to betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree your first and last sentences. This because I believe button is going to fire again with many of the hands you listed as his calling hands. If you think that is inaccurate, then fine, but explain why.

[Danenania]

See my response to Jeff W above. I agree with you that it's not clear what the best way to extract value is on the river. I was only pointing out your mistake in saying that betting has NO value, when it clearly does have some (though it might have comparatively less than other options).

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
See my response to Jeff W above. I agree with you that it's not clear what the best way to extract value is on the river. I was only pointing out your mistake in saying that betting has NO value, when it clearly does have some (though it might have comparatively less than other options).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that was dumb of me.

Can this guy make the same sort of laydown you did? If so, why not check and overcall the SB or raise if SB folds. Obviously fold to a C/R from SB or 3bet from button.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
is there any way my hand could possibly look more like a flush draw give then way it was played?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this the main reason you bet/fold the river? I'd feel uncomfortable folding such a big pot out of the assumption that my opponent is putting me specifically on a flush draw.

In the heat of the moment, I'd have c/c the river, mostly because there would have been too much doubt in my mind to fold.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I give up. You win, pokerstove. I know better than to post this early in the morning.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerStove is smart enough not to deal with duplicate cards properly:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: 7c 4s 3d 8h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.3636 % 11.36% 00.00% { Ad7s }
Hand 2: 88.6364 % 88.64% 00.00% { KdKs }
</pre><hr />

Now add a hand with a dead card in it, and the results are identical:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: 7c 4s 3d 8h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.3636 % 11.36% 00.00% { Ad7c, Ad7s }
Hand 2: 88.6364 % 88.64% 00.00% { KdKs }
</pre><hr />