4 100BB downswings within 14k hands

[hemstock]

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/8966/jnono8ds.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I understand 200BB downswings are rare. But what are the odds of having 4 downswings that huge within this small sample. Note that this is not 6 max where the game is more swingy. This is for full ring. Thank you

[ghostface]

I would say you play a pretty high variance style. This graph looks like it was from 6 max.

[DavidC]

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http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/8966/jnono8ds.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I understand 200BB downswings are rare. But what are the odds of having 4 downswings that huge within this small sample. Note that this is not 6 max where the game is more swingy. This is for full ring. Thank you

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you feel about this?

The reason I'm asking is that it's possiblle that you're not playing your best through the downswings.

[hemstock]

I feel my game is pretty much the same. I don't think I am tilting. I am still trying to give a reason for each decision I make and I am almost never make one with my "gut".

[DavidC]

Well, if that's the case, then you're probably having normal swings, dude. Sorry to hear about your luck.

[SunOfBeach]

you have far too few hands to be worrying about these swings, particularly when youre up about 1.4BB/100 over the stretch.

[Abbaddabba]

That's a pretty nuts upswing over the course of 1k hands too(220BB's).

[soko]

For what game is this, limit, no limit, what blinds? I like purrdy graphs

I dont know about the likelihood about these downswings given whatever EV and variance you have, but note that you also have large upswings during the sample.

Also you didn't pick the sample at random, but instead chose it because of the downswings contained within. I'm not sure how often a 14k block would see those swings if you played a large number of blocks.

Bottom line I don't think its that rare for those downswings to occur in a single 14k hand block.

[hemstock]

Thats Party 1/2 beginner tables.
Today I was up 100BB during 900 hands, ended up just +30BB after a couple more hundred hands.
Could that mean that the game I am playing has a high variance, or is it just my play?

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Could that mean that the game I am playing has a high variance, or is it just my play?

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That's a great question! The only way I can think of answering it is by comparing your expectancy and variance to that of other players in the game.

I wouldn't be too concerned with it as long as you're properly bankrolled. Play to maximize your EV, not minimize your variance.