Unlucky, or poorly played?

[Magician]

$20 NLHE tournament on Pokerstars, Blinds are 75/150, I have 4,450 chips (4,300 after posting the big blind).

Hand No. 1

I'm dealt pocket 99 in the big blind. UTG and UTG + 1 fold, UTG + 2 raises 300 to 450. UTG + 3 to small blind all fold.

I look at UTG+2's stack (2,300 chips remaining after his raise), and knowing that he has been making a lot of loose plays I re-raise 1,050 to 1,500.

UTG + 2 calls.

Flop is A J 5 (all of the same suit).

I find that one of my 9's is of the same suit as the board, giving me at least a flush draw even if I am now behind.

First to act I decide to move in (effectively betting UTG + 2's remaining 1,250), hoping that he either folds or if he calls knowing that I am at least getting proper pot odds.

UTG + 2 calls and flips over K T suited, matching the suit on the board (i.e. he flopped the nut flush).

This debacle leaves me with 1,700 chips (to a tournament average of about 3,000).

Hand No. 2

This is 3 hands later. I'm dealt AKo as UTG + 2. I have 2,000 chips.

UTG and UTG + 1 fold. I decide to call hoping that short-stacked UTG + 4 (700 chips) makes a stand with a not so strong hand (I'd seen him do this a couple of times already, one time he was lucky to get a split and the other time he'd doubled up from an even direr situation) and that I can then re-raise him all-in. UTG + 3 folds, UTG + 4 goes all in with his 700 chips. UTG + 5 folds. SB (the UTG + 2 from Hand No. 1) moves all-in (with his now massive stack from his beat of me 3 hands ago).

Irritated and knowing that SB (UTG + 2 from Hand No. 1) has been playing lots of hands I decide to call with my remaining 1,800, hoping that I either dominate his hand (AQ, KQ, KT suited maybe?) or that I'm only a slight dog to an underpair, and that even if I'm a slight dog to his underpair that I am at least getting proper pot odds.

I was right about UTG + 4, he flips over A8 offsuit. SB flips over QQ.

Unfortunately, no help arrives on the flop, turn and river and I am busted out of the tournament.



Was there anything I did wrong in either hand?


P.S. Apologies if I post more than I respond to others' posts, it's just that at this stage of my poker development I don't really feel qualified to be giving much advice yet. I'd rather not give advice than give faulty advice.

[SeanM]

I am new to this site so I dont have any credentials. I have read alot of your posts and must say that I like your style, although you are sometimes overly aggressive.
First off, the second hand was completely correct. It would make sense that the SB recognized that this player was going all in with weak hands and was trying to isolate him from the rest of the board. He could have AK, AQ, KQ.
Unforchantly he had the queens. Tough beat.
Hand number one, I dont like any of your moves here. First off, I wouldn't have reraised with 99. I also dont like your bet on the flop, if he calls, you are most likely beat. You have nines against two over cards, and still need another card for a flush that might not even be good enough anyways. I would have bet a smaller amount or even checked. I dont think stealing is the right move against the player you described.

I think you have potential to be a very good player. But I think you need to tighten up a little when players show strength and are betting into you. Save the more aggresive plays when you are in control, as opposed to guessing what they are holding.

[Magician]

On Hand No. 1, pre-flop, I thought that calling with 99 and then folding (if there are overcards) if I don't flop a set would be weak and that it really boiled down to either re-raising or folding the 99.

Maybe I should have just called and hoped for no overcards and/or hoped to outplay him on the flop - it's hard to say really.

When 3 cards of the same suit appeared on the flop, I thought that even if UTG + 2 had called with something suited that the chance the suit on the board matched his pocket cards' suit was only 1 in 4 and that if he was ahead it was likely because he had a bigger pair. Hence my semi-bluff massive bet on the flop (where if he didn't have that flush I would have had good pot odds to make the flush if he called with a bigger pair).

[Magician]

Re: Hand No. 1 - another thought that went through my mind was that if I called his raise pre-flop, I was getting marginal (at best) implied odds - and that was assuming he would pay me off with his whole stack if I hit my set.

So it again firmed my mind that the answer was to either re-raise or fold.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Hand #1: I'd rather just call preflop. If I hit my set, I have the potential to win just as many chips as I do if I raise. That being said, there's nothing *that* wrong about your raise. Once he calls that raise, you have to put him on at least 2 paint cards. Once this flop comes, you really have to consider releasing the hand. There are just too many ways you can lose. That 9 may or may not be an out. Check the flop and fold if he bets more than just a feeler.

Hand #2: Again, no problem with limping with big slick here, even though I'd usually raise. When the SB goes all-in over the top, you have to give him credit for a big pair unless you think he's a total maniac. Remember, Sklansky says AK is a hand you want to raise with all-in, but you don't want to call with all-in. At this point, you're not out of it, so why put all your chips in on a coin-flip.

[Magician]

Hand #1 - didn't the guy play poorly by calling my massive re-raise pre-flop with KTs? If I were him I would've folded. Of course, that's beside the point, but still...

Hand #2 - if he called my massive re-raise pre-flop with junk like KTs, I'm reluctant to fold to his all-in 3 hands later when I know for a fact he'd been raising with hands like that. Even if he does have a pair, why not a coin flip where I get good pot odds? I'm sure calling was positive EV that time even if I knew for a fact pre-flop that he had a pocket pair. And in the event that he hadn't (which I thought was distinctly possible) I would have his hand dominated most likely (AQ, KQ, KT).

[Magician]

Kurn,

My thinking with Hand No. 1 is:

a) Call = I get marginal implied odds

b) Re-raise = my EV is positive because of the times that he might decide to fold. In fact that time it was correct for him to fold but he decided not to.

I was willing to fold if pre-flop after my massive re-raise he came over the top of me all-in.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

In hand 1, if he's such a loose cannon, would he be able to lay down either a T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif no-pair draw or KJo if you represent a made flush by going all-in? To me this hand is a much clearer "get out of Dodge" situation than hand 2.

In hand 2, the presence of the additional 700 chips in the pot gives you enough +EV to justify a call. You're an 11-9 dog against a pair and the pot is giving you about 8-5 on your call.

[Magician]

Kurn,

So my only bad decision of the two hands was chasing on the flop in Hand No. 1?

Seems that is where I lose chips - when the flop doesn't go my way and I try to salvage the pot with the rest of my stack.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I'll let some of the more learned folks take over after this, but I think you only get big implied odds if you hit your hand. Thus it makes more sense to just call. 99 is awfully vulnerable to overcards against a preflop raiser. At this point in the tournament I think it's a hand to give yourself a chance to see the flop and get away cheaply. I also think you're overvaluing the equity in a 4th-nut flush draw. When he calls the reraise, I think you can be 100% certain he has at least 2 overcards to your 99, and better than 1/3 of the time, at least one of them will be in that suit. If you check to him on the flop and he bets into you, I think that probability is better than 1-1, so now your suited 9 is not a clean out. I just don't see liking 99 on this board even if it isn't monochrome.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Hand #2 was a close decision, but I wouldn't call it a bad decision, as long as you know that you'll get knocked out more than half the time.

Hand #1: there's no dishonor in folding 99 with 2 overcards on a monochrome board. I just think you get the same implied odds by calling the raise preflop.

[Magician]

Implied odds: if I call I pay 300 for the 675 chips in the pot plus his remaining 2,300 chips if I hit.

And that's assuming he pays me off in full with his entire stack which I can't be sure of.

Assuming I clean him out of his entire stack if I hit, the implied odds are about 10-1 vs. my 8-1 odds of flopping a set. Adjusting for him not fully paying me off, the implied odds become marginal.

So to me that makes it either raise or fold.

On the flop (3 of the same suit) and knowing that I have one card of that same suit (a 9), what are the odds that my opponent has either at least one card of the same suit as on the board which is higher than a 9 (knowing that there is a J and an A already on the board)?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

*if* you put him on at least 2 overcards, there is a 34% chance he has at least one of that suit.

[Magician]

True - but isn't that:

34% of at least one of that suit - possibilities: K Q T 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

So of that 34%, that's 10.2% that it's K, Q or T and 23.8% that it's 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 or 2.

[Magician]

Speaking of which - for each of the following pocket pairs, what are the odds of seeing at least one overcard to my pocket pair on the flop?

KK
QQ
JJ
TT
99
88
77
66
55
44
33
22

Sounds to me like better knowledge of this helps the call, fold, or raise decision when bet at from the big blind.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

No, but my math was flawed. After the flop, here's what's left:
A - 3, K, Q, T - 4, J - 3, or 18 cards. We assume, because he called your reraise, that both his cards are from this distribution. Thus

(3/18 + 3/17)- (3/18 x 3/17) = .3138 that he holds at least one card is higher than your 9 in that suit. However, just under 71% of the time, you are already behind (he either holds one A, one J, or AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or TT).

My head is spinning from all this math, but the bottom line is, I don't like my chances with 99 and this flop. To me it's intuitive when I see it, and the few numbers I've crunched don't make me any more confident.

Again, the caveat is this read - he called the reraise, therefore he holds two cards higher than 9.

[Magician]

Hypothetically, if I had QQ instead and one of the Q matched the suit on the board - would it change anything?

[Magician]

Could you explain how/why you use 3/18 + 3/17 - (3/18 x 3/17) to determine the probability that he has at least one of the suit higher than my 9?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Taking his cards one at a time, there are 3 cards out of 18 that fit the criteria for his first card, then 3 out of 17 left for his second card. You then have to subtract out the probability that *both* cards fit the criteria to avoid double counting.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Obviously, yes. There are now fewer overpairs he can hold (AA 3 ways, JJ 3 ways, KK 6 ways), and only one single flush overcard. Plus, you now have a runner-runner draw to Broadway. Also, within your original read, he has fewer made flushes possible (assuming your read is still 2 cards T or higher.)

[Justaloser]

>> I thought that calling with 99 and then folding (if there are overcards) if I don't flop a set would be weak <<

It would, but that's not always a bad thing. Use it as an opportunity to set them up later.

Just a thought....

[Magician]

Sounds to me like the back door straight draw would be worth little.

If it was as I described (QQ) what I mean is would the optimal play change?

[Justaloser]

If you've put him on overcards, then why consider that you have him beat on a flush draw? If he has a heart and you're fairly sure that he has higher cards than you, then he will beat your flush.

I dont understand the logic of putting him on overcards and then consider that he could have a lower flush.

[Magician]

That logical inconsistency didn't occur to me in the heat of battle. /forums/images/icons/frown.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Pre-flop, sure. If you view him as a loose raiser, you'd have to believe you were way ahead with QQ. Since a pot-sized reraise of 1575 would pretty much commit all his chips if he saw the flop, I put him all-in preflop.

[Justaloser]

To be fair, it's happened (or didn't happen) to me too. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[cferejohn]

Hand 1 - I like the reraise, especially if, as you say, he'd been stealing alot. His call was terrible. Unfortuntely, I think you have to check-fold that flop. Since calling here would cost you less than 10% of your stack, I don't think it's a terrible decision either. If calling had cost you less than 5% of your stack, I'd probably prefer calling.

Hand 2 - Good read of the short stack. I probably wouldn't be confident enough in my read to do this. The all-in is tough, since you almost have to figure you are a big underdog or a small underdog (would he do this with AQs?), or perhaps tied. You're certainly getting odds to call, since AA and KK are pretty unlikely given your hand, so I think it is close.

Don't worry about not giving advice. Actually, I find I learn as much, if not more, from advising others, since I get a chance to really think about how other players play given hands differently than me. Also, I learn from when someone else comes back and points out how asinine my advice is /forums/images/icons/wink.gif.

[Magician]

Hand No. 2, I knew the short-stack would go all-in with a not so great hand because I'd seen him do it an orbit or two before in similar circumstances (the first time he did it he survived though).

I think pre-flop I am making the right decisions but that I get into problems after the flop.

In fact I feel very comfortable when I'm short-stacked - sure I don't like the situation, but at least I know what to do.

[cferejohn]

I am OK with a shortstack (go all in with decent aces and pairs; hope to buy blinds or double up) or with a huge stack (steal like a madman). Mediumish stacks get me in trouble, especially when there are big stacks to my left who like seeing flops.

[Magician]

$20 NLHE on Pokerstars, very similar but different situation as Hand No. 1 a few weeks ago:

I have 1,475 chips. Blinds are 50/100.

I'm dealt pocket TT in UTG + 2. Folded to me. I raise to 4 BB (leaving me with 1,075 chips). Folded to cutoff (with 1150 chips) who calls (leaving him with 750 chips). Button, SB and BB fold.

Flop is A 4 3 (all of the same suit). One of the tens in my hand matches the suit on the board.

I curse being first to act and wonder what to do. I'd never seen him before but in my brief experience of sitting at the same table he had been aggressive on a couple of flops. If I just check, I think he is likely to bet. If I bet small, I think he is likely to raise. I can't bet 60-80% of the pot because it's too big a fraction of my stack - if my intention is to bet sizeably I have to move in.

I figure if he had AA, KK, QQ or even JJ he is likely to have re-raised. I figure if he has a smaller pair that my move in could make him release his hand or call (both are fine by me), if he has an Ace + a weak kicker he could release his hand, and if he has AK or AQ there is just a 1 in 4 chance that the K or Q he has matches the board and he has me drawing dead on the flush draw. I figure a bad case is he calls with an ace and I still have 10 outs twice (worst case of course is he calls with an ace and I am drawing dead on the flush giving me only 2 outs twice).

I move in, he calls and flips over A6o (the 6 not matching the suit on the board), no help arrives, and I am crippled (down to 300 chips as I had him covered).

I confirm later that I indeed had a 42% chance (the 10 outs twice) on that hand after moving in (twodimes.net).

a) Was it the right move?
b) If I knew his hand (i.e. knew for a fact he had A6o not matching the board's suit), would it still have been the right move?