T9s, a hand v Hobbs.

[brettbrettr]

Copincidentally, Hobbs is sitting to my right here. Neither of us had gotten out of line, and both are playing our A games, it seemed to me.

I'm card dead as hell, hence the limp. Even if I'm not card dead, I don't think the limp is terrible. This was a pretty good table. But its not great, and I'm not bragging about the limp.

Anyway, recommendations on the river please?

FWIW, I think Hobbs will raise this turn with 55-88 intending to take a free showdown, or even value bet me if the rivber isn't ugly. So, while I'm not sure I'm behind on the turn, I'm not sure I'm not drawing dead either which while remote is still possible.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[thesharpie]

I'd bet/call the river. A set seems so unlikely, 22 might go for overcalls in this small pot and 99 is not only 1 combo but might've raised preflop. If you think he'd value bet 55-88 then a check/raise might be in order, but I think he's taking a free showdown alot of the time.

[toss]

Hobbs hand feels really like 55 or 66 or 33. If you had 3-bet the turn he would have probably fold. I also see him taking a free showdown on the river a lot here. So donkbet and hope he calls out of confusion. And fold if he raises.

[BigEndian]

I can't remember if I commented on this hand earlier. I think I would bet the river and call a raise in the heat of battle.

I wonder if he would bet his 55-88 on the end or take a shot at it with an unlikely busted flush draw. Checking to induce a bluff has possiblities too.

- Jim

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would bet the river and call a raise in the heat of battle.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is absoutely what I would do in the heat of battle. But, in the coolheadedness of forum posting, I'm not sure we should be calling the raise.

Do you really think Hobbs is capable of bluffing this river with any hand that I beat? If I check-call the turn, then donk the ten, then I'd have to call, because my play would look too much like a missed flush draw so he might raise pairs that I do beat. But, in this case, I'm not sure.

This brings me to my next question. Is the turn a good bet call? Should I have checkraised?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think Hobbs is capable of bluffing this river with any hand that I beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
This brings me to my next question. Is the turn a good bet call? Should I have checkraised?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with check-raising is that Hobbs will be very capable of finding a fold with a hand like 55 there. Betting both the turn and the river is a better way to get two bets in, particularly as he'll often raise the turn with inferior hands.

Personally, I think we should be betting the turn, calling the raise, and donk-betting the river even if the T doesn't come up. And I do think we need to call a river raise because if Hobbs knows who you are he's got to know you are donking the river with the intent of folding to a raise a huge percentage of the time. (In fact, in Hobbs position, if he knew it were you, you could argue raising the river is better than calling with almost any hand he'd want to call with).

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
If Hobbs knows who you are he's got to know you are donking the river with the intent of folding to a raise a huge percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really ever find myself thinking this way on the river. Splain please.

FWIW, HObbs knows its me.

[W. Deranged]

The basic thought is just that when skilled players donk bet the river they are often doing so to prevent a free-showdown or whatever, but will always at least be considering folding to a raise. The fact that you might even consider a fold to a raise in this hand, and that sometimes Hobbs has a hand you'll beat, means that he might reasonably raise this river with a fairly broad range of holdings. (Raising with A9s, for example, would hardly be out of the question as a value-bluff, and so on...)

[molawn2mo]

I agree with toss, here. Hobbs play is consistant with small to mid PP. After all there are a small number of hands that you can even think about limp with (J9s, T9s, A9s). He has no reason to think that the 9 helped you by counterfeiting him.

I think you have a turn 3 bet or a river donk, here, dependent upon whether or not you feel he can fold to the 3 bet. If so, then call the turn raise and donk the river.

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think we should be betting the turn, calling the raise, and donk-betting the river even if the T doesn't come up. And I do think we need to call a river raise because if Hobbs knows who you are he's got to know you are donking the river with the intent of folding to a raise a huge percentage of the time. (In fact, in Hobbs position, if he knew it were you, you could argue raising the river is better than calling with almost any hand he'd want to call with).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything WD said. I prefer the river bet because there are many times where Hobbes may try for the free showdown on the turn, he may not call a check-raise, but he will most likely call a donk bet. However if he raises the river, its time to release the hand.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[toss]

All depends on what Hobbs thinks on the river. Hobbs where are you?

[Kailia Marie]

Hi Brett,

You played the flop and turn perfectly. To continue your mastery of the three streets, bet the river again.



/images/graemlins/heart.gifKailia

[WillMagic]

Lead. I think he has 55-88 almost all the time, and he'll probably value bet 77 and 88. The problem is that he can fold to your check-raise, so you are better off leading out and picking up value from 55 and 66.

Will

[Entity]

Donk it.

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
Lead. I think he has 55-88 almost all the time, and he'll probably value bet 77 and 88. The problem is that he can fold to your check-raise, so you are better off leading out and picking up value from 55 and 66.

Will

[/ QUOTE ]

umm...what hands do you think Hobbs thinks will call his river bet if he is to bet 66 or 77 or whatever?

I'm pretty sure he'll just check through with the mid pairs, especially since it's more likely that he has a smallish pair since he only limped. I'm guessing he'd be raising 88 preflop here...

Betting the river is good though because he may call out of confusion with his small pair and will surely call with a 9 with a good kicker (maybe A9s).

Also, I think if Hobbs flopped a monster he'd have popped it on the flop and hoped everyone called with their overcards and flush draws or medium pairs or whatever. A lot of hands that will call one bet on this flop will call two so I don't put him on a flopped boat or trips.

With that said, I think it's really unlikely that he has 99 since there is only one combination to make that and he'd very likely raise that preflop. So if you do get popped when you lead the river I say it's a call as he may be bluff raising or value raising something like A9.

-WT

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]

umm...what hands do you think Hobbs thinks will call his river bet if he is to bet 66 or 77 or whatever?

[/ QUOTE ]

um...55-88. His entire range. Unless he has something random like A4s.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he'll just check through with the mid pairs, especially since it's more likely that he has a smallish pair since he only limped. I'm guessing he'd be raising 88 preflop here...

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll be a lot more prone to limp 88 with brett limping in front of him. Plus, what hands does he put Brett on? Oh, right, 55-88. But whatever. We may disagree with what hands Hobbes will value bet, but it doesn't really matter...the play is clearly to lead the river, and you agree.

[ QUOTE ]

Betting the river is good though because he may call out of confusion with his small pair and will surely call with a 9 with a good kicker (maybe A9s).

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...yeah. I don't disagree.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I think if Hobbs flopped a monster he'd have popped it on the flop and hoped everyone called with their overcards and flush draws or medium pairs or whatever. A lot of hands that will call one bet on this flop will call two so I don't put him on a flopped boat or trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]


With that said, I think it's really unlikely that he has 99 since there is only one combination to make that and he'd very likely raise that preflop. So if you do get popped when you lead the river I say it's a call as he may be bluff raising or value raising something like A9.

[/ QUOTE ]

And in other breaking news, it has been recently revealed that the Pope is indeed Catholic.

Will

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Copincidentally, Hobbs is sitting to my right here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you mean your left -- he's UTG+1, acting after you, correct?

Anyway, I guess I'm alone in preferring a check-call on this river. He may often see your river bet as a blocking bet, intending to fold to a raise. So that makes me skittish about bet/folding. But most of the time he raises this river you're behind, so bet/call doesn't seem desirable.

Checking allows him to do what Hobbs does best -- value bet his ass off. This guy will value bet a needle into the head of a pin. Let him do it, then snap it off with your top 2. If he has you beat, you lose 1 BB. If not, he slaps himself for not taking the free showdown.

[ErrantNight]

are you justifying the limp because you've been card dead therefore you haven't played hands and are bored? or because the table will be suspicious of you suddenly playing and be less likely to raise you? or some combination plus the table has been passive preflop?

i'd bet/call again on the river. but really, i'd expect to bet and get called. rarely you'll c/r and be 3/bet and be behind. somewhat frequently you'll check intending to raise and this will get checked through. so i like a bet.

[toss]

My thought process after being card dead for a while:

Hmmmm I raise AJo here so limping T9s can't be thaaat bad.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I think Hobbs will raise this turn with 55-88 intending to take a free showdown


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this answers your question.
Bet with the intention of not getting raised?

[Noodles]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy will value bet a needle into the head of a pin.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? you mean bet a camel into the eye of a needle?
thought you had sunday school in the states /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Copincidentally, Hobbs is sitting to my right here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you mean your left -- he's UTG+1, acting after you, correct?

Anyway, I guess I'm alone in preferring a check-call on this river. He may often see your river bet as a blocking bet, intending to fold to a raise. So that makes me skittish about bet/folding. But most of the time he raises this river you're behind, so bet/call doesn't seem desirable.

Checking allows him to do what Hobbs does best -- value bet his ass off. This guy will value bet a needle into the head of a pin. Let him do it, then snap it off with your top 2. If he has you beat, you lose 1 BB. If not, he slaps himself for not taking the free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this because I think he bets when checked to nearly all the time. You appear to have a busted draw, and you let him do your value betting for you.

[hicherbie]

seems theres a good chance he will check behind here if he has a mid pp. i like a bet.

[brettbrettr]

Yeah, this is a bet call.

For interested parties, due to a tell I had on Hobbs---he typed "Ship It" in the chat box after the river card appeared--I only check-called, and he showed me 22 for the flopped boat. But, sans this subtle, subtle tell, seems like a(nother) easy bet call, which wuld have made three bet-calls on one hand for me, which would have been special.

[hobbsmann]

I actually don't raise the river very light all the often and would be much more inclined to fold to a river donk with 55-88 if I had raised the turn for a free showdown (which is a play I do enjoy).

I should also point out that A4s is not out of my limping range UTG1 after an UTG limper given the table conditions at the time.

[lighterjobs]

donk it one more time.

[hobbsmann]

So Brett already posted results, but I will basically limp all pairs after one limper and generally expand my range in attempts to encourage limpfests with my good limping hands. Anyway I had 22 and /images/graemlins/heart.gif playing hands fasts so from my point of view I think the hand was pretty boring.

Looking back on the hand I don't think I could help myself from c/r'ing the turn with top pair and a flush draw if I was Brett, but ultimately think bet/calling that street is best. As others have said bet/call is the line on the river as top two is strong (ahead of 55-77), but is still a loser to A4s and 22 and thus 1-2 bets going in on the river is optimal.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking back on the hand I don't think I could help myself from c/r'ing the turn with top pair and a flush draw if I was Brett, but ultimately think bet/calling that street is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, having 0 or 3 bets going in there would be horrible for me. Knowing you, I really thought there was a chance I was drawing dead. But I'm still not about to give a freebie.