Would someone take this bet with me?

[Jurollo]

$100 bet.

From the beginning of December till the end of January... I play the Party $40K every night possible (3-5 nights a week), I contend I would make the final table once or more from the fields of 2000+
~Justin

how about a bet and/or pool with more than one person of who makes the final table first or top finishes?

i'd take that bet....pm me

[Exitonly]

i'll take the bet

[ilya]

I would take this bet, but only if just a few other people took it with me.

[KneeCo]

If you would guarantee no more than 35 tries, I would take this bet. Hehe, no offense though.

[Jurollo]

No offense taken, just something fun I might do when December comes.
~Justin

[DeadMoneyOC]

I would give you from today until the last day of January.

[CardSharpCook]

ok, 200 tables, you have to make the FT. .5% chance. 40 tries. We need to hit our 99.5% shot 40 times in a row. .995^40 = 81.8% chance that we win IF you are an average player. However, I've got faith in you. I think you are twice as good as the field. So... .99^40 = 66.9% shot. You will make the FT 33.1% of the time in 40 consecutive tries. Yeah, I'll take that bet! What is my EV? 200*.669 + 0*.331 - 100 = $33.80. Sweet! You good for another $100 bet or am I too late?

[FishInAPhoneBooth]

Have you played the $40k lately? I think our man is at least 3x as good as the field.

[Jurollo]

I might be willing to take up to 3 of these but I want to run some numbers first.
~Justin

[Roman]

[ QUOTE ]
i'll take the bet

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you played the $40k lately? I think our man is at least 5x as good as the field.

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you played the $40k lately? I think our man is at least 3x as good as the field.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are overestimating the edge a player can have. You are underestimating the quality of the online player. As for Jurollo's skills, I've only watched him a few times, so I can't really say how good he is.

[Jurollo]

Brendan,
I am a beast, haha. When I want to be that is

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
Brendan,
I am a beast, haha. When I want to be that is

[/ QUOTE ]


Seriously though.....how much of an edge would you say the best players have? 2-3X?


The thing is that I would expect a good player to have much better chances of getting deep - where the top prizes are. Place first or second in a large tourny and you can win 150-300X the buy-in.


I read somewhere that TJ Cloutier said his expected return in large field events was about 7X the buy-in.