let her go?? in love with AA, but is she right for me??

[silkyslim]

pf 3 bettor is semi loose, aggressive, turn raisor was a fish. i think i should have led the turn. let it go on the turn??

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero ??

Bite your lip and muck.

[W. Deranged]

When the small blind cold-calls two twice on the flop and then check-raises the turn you need to be done with the hand. Your getting shown a flush or at least a set like 95% of the time.

I'm not so worried about CO as he'll often have QQ or KK here but sometimes he'll have JJ or A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif and that makes the hand even less attractive. Without the SB check-raise, though, you probably need to get to a showdown if no further aggression occurs.

[RyGreen18]

a easy easy turn fold, i don't see any reason to fold, listen to the wise w deranged...

[silkyslim]

so sometimes you man up and fold the best hand.........

[RyGreen18]

if your not folding the best hand sometimes, you aren't playing optimal poker...

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
if your not folding the best hand sometimes, you aren't playing optimal poker...

[/ QUOTE ]
thoughts on leading the turn??? or are we confident that the fishy got there?

I don't think this is such an easy fold, and I think it was a mistake to check at the scare card. The only hand I would worry about is A-K suited (or the fish having any two spades), the other real hand J-J seems slim to me. Without one on the board, any player would only have a 1 in 220 chance of having it, times two, means there is a one in 1/110 chance one of your opponents has it (I know math isn't everything and the raising seems to denote high pockets). With a J on the flop the, the odds are even less (I calculate 1 in 392 for any one opponent to have it).

I see this as at least one player with KK and QQ trying to protect their overpair and afraid of the flush. As and Jo is also more likely that a set here.

The problem is the two bettors, but I would be very reluctant to fold until I see the river here.

Please let me know if my numbers are wrong.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if your not folding the best hand sometimes, you aren't playing optimal poker...

[/ QUOTE ]
thoughts on leading the turn??? or are we confident that the fishy got there?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's so little chance that a bet doesn't go in here on the turn, so giving a free card isn't much of a consideration. If we bet and get raised, we are probably drawing really thin to JJ anyway. Villain probably won't raise KK or QQ again after all the capping and your betting again. So betting and checking seem pretty similar except that when you check:

1. You save a bet when it goes check, bet, check-raise in the situation described.

2. You save a bet when villain has JJ and you are drawing near dead. (The fact that I want to get to showdown here makes me not want to have to pay 3 BB to do so.)

If I thought CO would raise the turn with a hand we were beating with any regularity I think I like betting better, but I like checking against an unknown. Note also that since we're not vulnerable to overcards, the pot's so big, there's three-to-a-flush hand protection basically goes out the window here because it's gonna be pretty impossible to do.

[ErrantNight]

i think you should have lead it, too. once it's two more back to you with the SB waking up i think you can let her go

[ErrantNight]

if you lead the turn and it was two more back to you... yes.

as it was? probably. but fish coulda gotten tricky and seen an opportunity to fold you with a worse hand with outs. hence, you should lead.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
if you lead the turn and it was two more back to you... yes.

as it was? probably. but fish coulda gotten tricky and seen an opportunity to fold you with a worse hand with outs. hence, you should lead.

[/ QUOTE ]
exactly

[ErrantNight]

as long as you take from this: "i shoulda lead the turn" and not "i shoulda called two cold on the turn" we're cool.