Wuss on the river? (5/10 euro stud)

[PoorLawyer]

First off, sorry for the formatting but this is not a supported site. Am I missing bets here on the river or is this standard? I have no read on the player.

Game #1332518103: 7 Card FL (€5/€10) - 2005/11/15 - 17:06:31 (ET)
Table "Ellis"
Seat 1: Player 1 (€535 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 2 (€250.25 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (€200 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 3 (€504 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 4 (€119.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Player 5 (€123.96 in chips)
Seat 8: Player 6 (€396.50 in chips)
Player 6: posts the ante €0.50
Player 1: posts the ante €0.50
Player 4: posts the ante €0.50
Player 5: posts the ante €0.50
Player 3: posts the ante €0.50
Hero: posts the ante €0.50
Player 2: posts the ante €0.50
----- 3rd STREET -----
dealt to Player 1 [6h]
dealt to Player 2 [Jh]
dealt to Hero [Kh Jd Kd]
dealt to Player 3 [Th]
dealt to Player 4 [3h]
dealt to Player 5 [Qd]
dealt to Player 6 [Ah]
Player 4: brings-in €2
Player 5: folds
Player 6: calls €2
Player 1: calls €2
Player 2: folds
Hero: raises €5
Player 3: calls €5
Player 4: calls €3
Player 6: calls €3
Player 1: calls €3
----- 4th STREET -----
dealt to Player 1 [6h][4d]
dealt to Hero [Kh Jd Kd][6s]
dealt to Player 3 [Th][5s]
dealt to Player 4 [3h][5h]
dealt to Player 6 [Ah][4s]
Player 6: checks
Player 1: checks
Hero: bets €5
Player 3: calls €5
Player 4: folds
Player 6: calls €5
Player 1: calls €5
----- 5th STREET -----
dealt to Player 1 [6h 4d][9d]
dealt to Hero [Kh Jd Kd 6s][Js]
dealt to Player 3 [Th 5s][Jc]
dealt to Player 6 [Ah 4s][5d]
Player 6: checks
Player 1: checks
Hero: bets €10
Player 3: folds
Player 6: folds
Player 1: calls €10
----- 6th STREET -----
dealt to Player 1 [6h 4d 9d][8h]
dealt to Hero [Kh Jd Kd 6s Js][Ad]
Hero: bets €10
Player 1: calls €10
----- RIVER -----
dealt to Hero [Kh Jd Kd 6s Js Ad][6d]
Hero: checks
Player 1: checks
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Hero: shows [Kh Kd Jd Js Ad 6d 6s] (Two Pairs, Kings and Jacks, Ace high)
Player 1: mucks hand
Hero collected €85.50 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot €88.50 Main pot €85.50 Rake €3
Seat 1: Player 1 mucked
Seat 3: Player 2 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hero showed [Kh Kd Jd Js Ad 6d 6s] and won (€85.50) with Two Pairs, Kings and Jacks, Ace high
Seat 5: Player 3 folded on the 5th Street
Seat 6: Player 4 folded on the 4th Street
Seat 7: Player 5 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Player 6 folded on the 5th Street

[Mac]

with his board, I bet the river. you might get a call from a smaller 2 pair.

- Mac

Can't see an obvious drawing hand to put him on, so fire away.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't see an obvious drawing hand to put him on, so fire away.

[/ QUOTE ]

well the only obvious thing I can see is some middling straight draw which he will most likely raise if he catches and fold if he doesn't. There comes the question I guess...what % of the time do you put someone like this on a lower 2 pair that will pay off and what % are they drawing and will pop it when they hit. Also, I think you have to call down the raise here so you are potentially putting an extra bet at risk

[CarlosChadha]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can't see an obvious drawing hand to put him on, so fire away.

[/ QUOTE ]

well the only obvious thing I can see is some middling straight draw which he will most likely raise if he catches and fold if he doesn't. There comes the question I guess...what % of the time do you put someone like this on a lower 2 pair that will pay off and what % are they drawing and will pop it when they hit. Also, I think you have to call down the raise here so you are potentially putting an extra bet at risk

[/ QUOTE ]

The diamonds are dead, so you probably aren't running into a flush on the river. It looks like he could have had 57 in the hole for a OESD on 4th, but he would have made it on 6th and most likely popped you. So his most likely hand going into the river is probably just a medium pair (and maybe 2 pair, but he probably would have raised 6th with that). Unless he has 67 in the hole, any str8 draw he has would just be a gutshot, so you are not that worried about getting raised (which you would have to call against an unknown opponent). Therefore, I'd say about 80% he will just have 1 or 2 pair on the river. He will always pay you off with 2 pair, and occasionally with one pair. You are only risking ONE bet by betting (namely the raise), because you were planning on checking and calling anyway. With all that being said, I would bet this on the river everytime against an unknown opponent.

Regards,
Carlos