a great draw

[ErrantNight]

Party 3/6 6max

Early in the session... I have been playing extremely tight since I haven't had many cards. Villain is weak and a little loose, but can be spazzy aggressive. Likes to bluff raise and then release. I have been able to get away with a large percentage of steals, either straight up or on the flop... and then I made this play...

I'm dealt 9T crubs and open raise from UTG+1. The BB calls.

Flop comes: 8c7c5d

Villain bets, I raise, he 3bets, I cap.

Turn: 3s

Villain checks.

My plan?

I'm not interested in preflop.

Check and take the free river, your equity isn't as strong against only one opponent.

Regardless of what you said, the PF raise is very donkish. You can be cold-called with many, many hands here that have you dominated.

[callmedonnie]

When deciding whether or not to use the free card play I usually try and figure out my fold equity. From your read, you said that he like to reraise and release. Since he didn't release, I'm thinking he actually has a hand here and that our fold equity is pretty small. That would get me towards a check.

Here though, you have a ton of outs. I think your ten is still good, and I'm assuming that straight outs and flush outs are solid. With 16 outs I think I might bet with outs. With a little fold equity plus the outs, it should be an good bet, no?

[ErrantNight]

even at this table under the same conditions i wouldn't always make this preflop raise. but it happens that i thought this was a good opportunity for a lil variance.

[toss]

With your reads do you believe he 3-bet the flop, call a cap, then fold the turn for one bet? It seem pretty unlikely. I'd take my free card.

[W. Deranged]

A bet can never be that bad here with between 13 and 19 outs here. It can also be very good if we get a 7 or something to fold. With as much equity as we have we're actually only "losing" a third of a BB on every bet that goes in on this street, and risking a third of a BB to steal BB's 2/3 of this 5 BB pot seems worthwhile to me.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Likes to bluff raise and then release

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this I think the turn is a bet.

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
...we're actually only "losing" a third of a BB on every bet that goes in on this street, and risking a third of a BB to steal BB's 2/3 of this 5 BB pot seems worthwhile to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. help?

[car ramrod]

He seems to like his hand enough to call down. I doubt a bet on the turn will get him to fold. But it's not terrible, b/c of all the outs you have.

I would still take my free card. I know your read, but also, if he has been paying any attention, you said you have been playing really tight. Do you think he notices that? Might make it less likely he is trying to make a play at you.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Likes to bluff raise and then release

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this I think the turn is a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a bluff raise is a little different than a 3 bet. I think we're getting check raised here with this board (who calls a cap and fails to bet the turn?) - unless he's on some kind of club draw, in which case we might be in big trouble.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...we're actually only "losing" a third of a BB on every bet that goes in on this street, and risking a third of a BB to steal BB's 2/3 of this 5 BB pot seems worthwhile to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. help?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume we have 16 outs, which, for ease, is about 1/3 equity.

When we bet on the turn and get called, 1/3 of all the money that goes in on the turn comes back to us. That's 1/3 of 2 BB or 2/3 of a BB. So, for every 1 BB we put in on the turn, we get back 2/3 BB.

I like to think in terms of the "cost" or "real cost" of a turn bet, because I think a lot of people get too much into the "one big bet is one big bet" mode of thought and hence miss some important decisions. Betting on this turn is really not that risky because, even though we're usually behind when called, we are going to win so often.

The other part has to do with thinking about what part of the pot we are stealing. We are really only stealing the portion of the pot which the BB already has claim to. Since we already lay claim to 1/3 (that's our equity), we're really only stealing his 2/3 of the pot.

The point that emerges is that when we bet, we are not "risking 1 BB to take down 5 BB." We are really risking 1/3 BB (the effective cost of our bet) to take down 5(2/3) = 3 1/3 BB. Instead of getting 5-1 on our bluff attempt we're actually getting 10-1.

The extreme example here is when we actually have a very unlikely 50/50 draw on the turn. There, we should obviously bet every time because we are risking nothing to win the entire pot.

In other words, the effective odds we are getting on a turn semi-bluff are:

Q = P(1-x)/(1 - 2x)

Where P is pot size and x is our equity. In the neighborhood of 0 < x < .5, Q is an increasing, concave function of x where Q goes to infinity as x goes to .5.

[callmedonnie]

I followed you and thought it was great all the way until the function at the end. There, I couldn't tell if you were just messing with me or not. That's what I get for get an English degree. Thanks, good stuff.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I followed you and thought it was great all the way until the function at the end. There, I couldn't tell if you were just messing with me or not. That's what I get for get an English degree. Thanks, good stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean, I'm getting a history degree...

[callmedonnie]

lets just say i find functions unfunctionable.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]

Q = P(1-x)/(1 - 2x)

Where P is pot size and x is our equity. In the neighborhood of 0 < x < .5, Q is an increasing, concave function of x where Q goes to infinity as x goes to .5.


[/ QUOTE ]


(Q-axis)
l''''''''''''''''''1
l''''''''''''''''''1
l''''''''''''''''''1
l'''''''''''''''''/
l''''''''''''''/
l''''''''''/
P---/
l
l
l----------- (x axis)
0 '' 0.2 ''0.5

[ErrantNight]

i bet and was called.

the river was a 7.

villain checked.

[toss]

Another reason why I don't like betting the turn is that we'll have to invest two big bets should villain call the turn to win the pot. Plus I'm results oriented.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
Another reason why I don't like betting the turn is that we'll have to invest two big bets should villain call the turn to win the pot. Plus I'm results oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

me neither.