party 3/6 facing tough turn raise

[augie00]

villian is 14/12 after 482 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero?

[Dariel86]

Folds. The pot is small and you are behind most of the time.

[Mister Z]

Bet the flop. Why the C/R? The pot is small and there are only 4 players. I'm folding this turn. Calling down with 2nd best hands in small pots like this ain't smart.

[mdob]

Hmm, villain's play doesn't seem consistent with too many hands. Based on his PFR, I think AQ and 99 are unlikely. Based on his VPIP, I think 33 is unlikely. All other 2-pair/set hands are virtually impossible. I suppose he could have some mega-draw (TJs), but again, I think his VPIP is too low. I'd say 99 is most likely, followed by AQ, followed by TJs.

The pot's probably too small to continue when you're likely to be drawing dead.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, villain's play doesn't seem consistent with too many hands. Based on his PFR, I think AQ and 99 are unlikely. Based on his VPIP, I think 33 is unlikely. All other 2-pair/set hands are virtually impossible. I suppose he could have some mega-draw (TJs), but again, I think his VPIP is too low. I'd say 99 is most likely, followed by AQ, followed by TJs.

The pot's probably too small to continue when you're likely to be drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ax /images/graemlins/spade.gif is a possibility if the "x" isnt too small.

[jason_t]

This is not a tough turn raise. This is an easy turn fold.

[MrEngenic]

I'd like to talk more about the flop. I see absolutely no reason to checkraise. Just bet out. I think the turn is an easy fold.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to talk more about the flop. I see absolutely no reason to checkraise. Just bet out. I think the turn is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I checkraised because I always checkraise. I am not sure if there is much of a difference whether or not I checkraise, except it gives me a little more deception.

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a tough turn raise. This is an easy turn fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically.

This hand is easier if you'd just bet the flop too.

I am now a firm believer in the Entity P. Giraffe School of Fastplaying.

[Rootabager]

fold.
pot isnt too big and your probaly behind

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to talk more about the flop. I see absolutely no reason to checkraise. Just bet out. I think the turn is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I checkraised because I always checkraise. I am not sure if there is much of a difference whether or not I checkraise, except it gives me a little more deception.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting is better because you can't identify who will bet the flop and letting it get checked through is bad. The pot is small so 1 bet is plenty to protect your hand anyway.

[MrEngenic]

If everyone has a super read on you that you only bet with top pair medium kicker or better and never CR with it, well try a checkraise this time. But they dont, so just bet in this tiny pot. If they always fold start to add more hands and bluffs instead of trying to be tricky.

[hobbsmann]

calls and check/folds the river UI.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
calls and check/folds the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? We ain't gettin' odds, Homes, and villain isn't checking behind here nearly enough to make up what is a pretty substantial equity gap.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
calls and check/folds the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? We ain't gettin' odds, Homes, and villain isn't checking behind here nearly enough to make up what is a pretty substantial equity gap.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the combination of him a) being on a draw, b) making a free showdown raise with a chopping/inferior hand and c) leaving us in a position drawing to 5 outs warrents a river peel getting 7:1. I could be wrong, but given this guys stats I think he has a narrow range of hands that he open limps with in middle position (JTs, QTs, Axs, and some pairs). Furthermore, 14/12 are usually pretty aggro and raising the turn with draws think they have FE with the A out there is not out of the question.

[augie00]

phew. im glad someone spoke up.

in the real hand i folded, but i should have looked at his agression numbers before i did so.

the thought of a 14/11 limping is a bit odd. looking back on the hand I have a feeling he had KT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or something like that and i made a bad fold. although in the heat of the moment its hard to put someone on exactly that hand. i just cant see him with a big ace when i think about it really hard. maybe ace rag of spades but what kind of 14/11 limps with that??

i think if his turn and river agression are high enough it could justify calling this down. does anyone agree?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to talk more about the flop. I see absolutely no reason to checkraise. Just bet out. I think the turn is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason Malmuth has said that one of the reasons that limit hold'em is so damned hard is exactly deciding whether or not to bet or check/raise flops on hands like this.

[ErrantNight]

i really dislike not leading this flop.

[ErrantNight]

just now?