JJ: why am I raising this flop?

[gopnik]

Villians are unknown to me.


PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

When I was hitting the raise button on the flop I was thinking "protect against MP3 overs".
After the hand was over, I started thinking...what overs?

I had to assume BB's 3-betting hand range here is AA, KK, AK, and maybe AQs. He is not folding AK to my flop raise, so, if A or K comes I am still screwed anyway. So, maybe it's OK to keep MP3 in the pot and just call down in case I am dominated by a bigger pair?

Another way to play this hand would be to cap preflop and try to get rid of MP3. After that just call down unless A or K come and bet if checked to. Makes it easier to play.

Thoughts?

[POKhER]

For value? Protection(Kind of)? And lastly, possibly some info.

Info in the sense... you'll prob get 3bet VS AA/KK/QQ/TT but possibly called with AKs/AKo/AQs

I raise this all the time... I see no problemo.

[Spartan1983]

This is an automatic raise. Your hoping to get it heads up with the BB. Without further info it's hard to put a handle on what MP3 would be cold calling with. A cap preflop is a must also with Mp3 left to act after you. If you cap preflop, raise the flop and they both stay or BB continues to show aggression you can't act accordingly.

BB could have 3 bet preflop w/ AT and he would definately be betting this flop. pocket J's are a premium hand, bet them accordingly.

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an automatic raise. Your hoping to get it heads up with the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? To make is simple I assume 50% of the time BB has AA, KK, QQ, and 50% AK.
If BB keeps betting into me I still cannot raise him. If BB has AA,KK,QQ I am losing anyway, no point of raising.
If BB has AK, I don't really care about MP3 staying in because if MP3 catches, then BB catches as well.

[adsman]

I think waiting for the turn to raise has merits.

[gharp]

This is a tough situation. I'm thinking about the options...

Raise flop:
- If he has AK/AQ he might not bet the turn, so you get his money now.
- He could have a lesser hand and you can protect against MP3. Your raise still offers him 6:1 though, so he'd be right to call with something like KQ (especially w/a backdoor flush draw).

Raise turn:
- You get to see what cards come, which could significantly change your equity.
- Your turn raise looks like a monster hand, so he'll be less likely to 3-bet you with something that beats you.
- These save you money against AA/KK/QQ.

The big drawback of any raising scenario is that it really looks like you're beat if he 3-bets, but without a read it's tough not to call down (assuming no overcards).

All things considered, I think the best bet is to wait until the turn. If MP3 folds the flop, I'm probably just calling the turn and river. If MP3 is still around on the turn, I'll think about raising to push him out, when I can offer him much worse odds and when I'm less likely to be 3-bet by something that doesn't beat me.

[aargh57]

Your analysis sounds pretty good, however I would've probably done the same thing in the heat of battle. However, a raise could bump out MP3 with a A or K overcard and buy you a free card if you want it. I think you could throw in QQ to the hands he'd 3bet with so he could have an overpair to your J's 18 ways and AK or AQ 18 ways and AKos+AKs+AQs 16 ways so you're almost even money against him. If he checks to you chances are better that you're ahead and you can bet if a blank hits and still have a chance to pick up the pot or take a free showdown. Him not folding to your flop raise isn't necessarily reason not to do it. If he reraises you then you're almost certainly sunk but even with QQ or KK he might not 3 bet fearing a bigger overpair or better.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I think waiting for the turn to raise has merits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am thinking this as well.

[WalkAmongUs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think waiting for the turn to raise has merits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am thinking this as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

We fold to a turn 3-bet (on a card below 10) in this case correct?

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think waiting for the turn to raise has merits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am thinking this as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

he must bet the turn UI for this to be good. if he 3-bets you (say turn blank), what do you do?

[Hellmouth]

Grunching

I raise this also, call the three bet (if villian has AA-QQ)and call down. You cannot assume that villian does not have AK. There are 16 ways (I think) that he has AK and only 9 ways that he has AA-QQ. You very well may be ahead and raising will define where you are at.

If three bet on the flop I call down. If I have a read that the player is very tight I might fold the turn unimproved.

Greg

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching

I raise this also, call the three bet (if villian has AA-QQ)and call down. You cannot assume that villian does not have AK. There are 16 ways (I think) that he has AK and only 9 ways that he has AA-QQ. You very well may be ahead and raising will define where you are at.

If three bet on the flop I call down. If I have a read that the player is very tight I might fold the turn unimproved.

Greg

[/ QUOTE ]
there are 6 combos for each overpair AA-QQ, and you're right about 16 combos of AK. so that makes it 16 AK combos and 18 overpair combos. plus, you can not logically assume that any player would play them all the same.

so when you say you'd raise to define where you are, but then you say you would call down vs. a 3-bet, it seems that the defining your hand isn't worth much.

I wouldn't rule out pocket tens as a PFR hand for villain to 3-bet, I know I would against most players at this level.

Steve

*bump*

I think this hand deserves more attention.

[Shillx]

Yeah just call all the way. Let's just say that the bettor has AK and the other dude has A7....why raise and fold him out when he is basically drawing dead. If he has A7 and the bettor has us beat with KK then it also does us no good to get him out since we need to improve to win anyway.

Brad

I agree with everything you said. I might add in TT or 99. I guess I say that since im such a lag.

The most important thing I've taken out of this thread and the "Welcome to the Rock" thread is [something that I choose to ignore on the most part]:

When 3bet holding QQ and more so JJ [against a typical opponent] your equity plummets.