$22 Bubble Trouble 3

[Olback]

Normally i would autocall here but i was thinking what if shorty has a huge hand and then i do win either pot. What kind of hand do people put shorty on?

#Game No : 3036785486
***** Hand History for Game 3036785486 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:17416749 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Monday, November 14, 20:56:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 67396 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Olback17 ( $910 )
Seat 5: shapy111 ( $3880 )
Seat 8: Meredict ( $630 )
Seat 10: losyara007 ( $2580 )
Trny:17416749 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Olback17 [ Qd Jh ]
shapy111 raises [1000].
Meredict is all-In [630]
losyara007 folds.

Olback 17?

[citanul]

i think this is a call pretty much no matter what raneg you put hte shorty on.

c

[bluefeet]

ok, this one is tad closer /images/graemlins/wink.gif

range problem:

UTG has a green light to push ANY TWO here. but...he didn't. does that tell us anything? well, only that he doesn't know that he should be pushing 43o here. is this minraise indicative of someone that would consider folding to SB's push? but even if it does, it also tells me that he's trying to communicate that he has "enough" to take on the shorties.

So, if he's pushing something only slightly better than random, it is a modest +$EV call for you - had shortie not called.

If we settle on a (22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs) kind of range for UTG, shortie should only be calling with TT+,AKo,AQs+.

Are we behind shortie? Almost certainly IMO.

BUT...we have a sidepot. This is where it gets fun.

If we know shortie stands the best chance to win this hand, look what happens:

~ you fold
Seat 1: Olback17 ( $410 )
Seat 5: shapy111 ( $3250 )
Seat 8: Meredict ( $1760 )
Seat 10: losyara007 ( $2330 )

Of course if he loses, we crawl intoTM. And if we call and don't beat UTG? Yeah...broke. But if we call AND beat UTG:

Seat 1: Olback17 ( $820 )
Seat 5: shapy111 ( $2970 )
Seat 8: Meredict ( $1880 )
Seat 10: losyara007 ( $2330 )

Meh...1.5bb's /images/graemlins/frown.gif Not so much better.

SO!! It boils down to folding, UTG sucking out on shortie....or calling, EITHER OF YOU sucking out on shortie!! There's an off-chance that a) they share an Ace, or b) shortie is calling w/ a PP<J...both making your hand look a little stronger.

[Been typing all of this having not made up my mind yet /images/graemlins/blush.gif]

Decided: I'm calling. I just don't like UTG's chances ALONE here vs. shortie. And obviously folding is garbage if/when shortie does win the hand.

[Shillx]

This isn't even close dude. If you didn't have to post your BB, you would fold here if you thought everyone would win 33% of the time. But it would only be a small mistake to call in the above situation. Perhaps a .5% mistake at most. The fact that 1/2 of your stack is in there makes this an autocall. Even if you thought you had a significant underlay, you would have to call.

Here are the #'s if you didn't have any $$$ in to start the hand. Everyone wins 33% of the time when you call and they both win 50% of the time when you fold.

EV don't call = 20.2%
EV call = 19.4%

Now when you take your blind into account...

EV fold = 15.1%
EV call = 19.4% (same as before)

What a huge difference. Easy call man.

Brad

[Olback]

My biggest concern was that shorty called the all in when he was on the button. I mean why would you call there unless you have a big hand?

Therefore if i call i have to either beat shortie, beat UTG or hope UTg beats shorty. If shorty has a monster i think i am in big trouble.

Does anyone else read shorty (on button) with a big hand?

[Shillx]

Just a follow up to see if I'm getting the math right here.

Let's assume that we will win 20% of the time when we call. The other 2 villians will win 40% of the time each. We are a 70/30 dog against any one person in a HU scenario. Is it still a call?

EV of calling...

A) If we win the hand outright the stack will look like (ours always 1st) -- t2700, t2970, t2330 -- Equity is 33.5%

B) If we beat the big stack but lose to the short stack -- t560, t2970, t2140, t2330 -- Equity of 9.54%

C) Big stack wins -- Equity of 20%

D) Short stack wins and we lose to the big stack -- Equity of 0%

A will happen 20% of the time.
B will happen .4*.3 = 12% of the time.
C will happen 40% of the time.
D will happen .4*.7 = 28% of the time.

Total = 100%

EV call = A + B + C + D = .335*.20 + .0954*.12 + .2*.4 + 0 = 15.8%

EV fold = 15.1%

So it would take just about the worst of spots to make this a fold. In order to have 20% equity, they have to be playing only the top 7-8% of their hands. And even then it is still a call! They would both literally have to have AA-TT and AK to fold here.

Brad

[Olback]

Ok thanks for the analysis.

I did end up calling and surprisingly shorty had the same hand as me q,jo and we both lost to a,x, giving me 3rd.