Difficult AQ hand...maybe?

[AZK]

Party 2k, against conezone, tight 16/7 player. Other than a minor blow up a dozen hands or so ago in which i 3 barrel bluffed someone into a double up who turned the nuts T44T board (i know puke - it was a button steal on their part, can never give credit), I have a pretty good tight solid image. I am about 95% sure this is not a ten and rather a stubborn PP.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 ($2375.75)
CO ($3281)
Button ($2190.50)
SB ($2489)
BB ($749)
UTG ($1854)
UTG+1 ($2813)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($2201)</font>
MP1 ($1970)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($1548)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $20, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $100</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $100, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $80.

Flop: ($330) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $225</font>, MP2 calls $225, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($780) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $500</font>

[edge]

I don't think there's really any other way to play it. No way you checkraise the turn with AA/KK or a T.

[Jonny]

I like it.

[AZK]

I would def. consider it with either, do most disagree?

I don't like a cr here cause I feel with his stack it's too committing, if he was deeper I like it, but here I don't want a call.

[edge]

Wouldn't you be somewhat afraid of giving a free card to spades with AA/KK/T? I think check/calling and check/folding are both awful. Will this guy bet 44 if you check? If he will, I don't think he'll call a c/r all-in.

[mikech]

are you folding to a raise?

[AZK]

no. I'm pretty confident that if I pair either card I'm good too.

[AdamBragar]

Push the turn?

[James282]

Close one Ari. What makes it close is that he is so tight and yet called with an opponent behind him as opposed to last to act. If we think it's a stubborn PP, then your bet or a check-raise are both viable.
-James

[AZK]

Hmm, I really don't think the cr is viable. I mean I think people feel much more committed to a hand after they put some money in on the turn, get cred, and then realize, well i'm probably beat oh well but I already put so much in and I only have so little left. Whereas the bet flop, bet turn is like ok, I know my 66 is no good, I'll lay down.

Eh?

[AdamBragar]

The problem is your 500 bet is way too comfortable for him to call. And if he reraises are you folding? Just shove the money in now and you get a bunch of fold equity. For example, if he has 88 or 99, he only needs to fold 1 in 5 times for this move to be +EV.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I really don't think the cr is viable. I mean I think people feel much more committed to a hand after they put some money in on the turn, get cred, and then realize, well i'm probably beat oh well but I already put so much in and I only have so little left. Whereas the bet flop, bet turn is like ok, I know my 66 is no good, I'll lay down.

Eh?

[/ QUOTE ]

But he is 16/7 and you have much more effectively represented a ten.
-James

[FoxwoodsFiend]

What is this [censored]? I just opened up some thread and it didn't have the words mahatma, zweig, or kanekungfu in it...lame

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I really don't think the cr is viable. I mean I think people feel much more committed to a hand after they put some money in on the turn, get cred, and then realize, well i'm probably beat oh well but I already put so much in and I only have so little left. Whereas the bet flop, bet turn is like ok, I know my 66 is no good, I'll lay down.

Eh?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct...anybody who says they check/raise bluff the turn often is either lying or crazy-I almost always get my c/raises called on the turn.

if you lead the turn, he calls and spade the river, im not sure what to do.. it may look like hes boated, maybe flopped the full or turned it flop calling 77. but thats if the turn bet DOESNT work.

but if you think an A or Q is good on the river you might as well just move it in on any river that has a spade or any card above and including a ten.

[ML4L]

Hey AZK,

If you pot the flop, this hand never gets posted...

ML4L

[AZK]

Hmm, you think? $300 is that much more convincing than $200 for a pair to lay down to an overpair vs overcards?

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey AZK,

If you pot the flop, this hand never gets posted...

ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it makes a difference. A lot of the time, hands like this boil down to a second-barrel bluff guessing game. A PP will rarely fold on the flop, but will often fold on the turn. Pushing may work, but it's a bit weird and you'd have to start doing it with a wide variety of hands. Since I rarely overbet, I would play this hand exactly the same way and assume that any spade/A/Q will win it for me. If he pushes over top on the turn, I call because there's very little chance he's full and a good chance that my pair outs are still good.

[IHateCats]

You are missing the point ML is making, it's not about making him fold it's about your opponents stack size. Figure # of likely outs, size of pot if you pot it and he calls and look at where you'll be at the turn.

[IHateCats]

See my reply to edge.

[Heimdal]

Ok. I’m not sure if this is what you are talking about but I will try. If hero pots the flop there will be $1K in the pot with $1100 left.
With 14 outs hero’s equity is 32% if he goes all in and MP calls = autopush. Let’s be more pessimistic. Sometimes hero will be drawing dead, sometimes a Q will be good. 11 outs on average. 25% equity when called.

Using this formula:

F = (B - E) / (Pf - E)

where

F = break-even probability of opponent folding
B = amount of hero's bet (or, if raising, amount of call + raise)
Pf = pot size when opponent folds, including hero's last bet
E = equity in pot when called (in terms of $s, not %) )

E = $3200 * 0.25 = $800
F = (1100-800) / (2100-800) = 23 %

If MP folds 23 % hero breaks even. Still an easy decision with AZK’s read.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I really don't think the cr is viable. I mean I think people feel much more committed to a hand after they put some money in on the turn, get cred, and then realize, well i'm probably beat oh well but I already put so much in and I only have so little left. Whereas the bet flop, bet turn is like ok, I know my 66 is no good, I'll lay down.

Eh?

[/ QUOTE ]


i definitely prefer a c/r here. If he checks behind that isnt bad either. Also if he is calling your c/r here w/ 66 often, then i simply c/f (depending on his bet) the turn. Possibly c/c.

[ML4L]

Hey AZK,

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, you think? $300 is that much more convincing than $200 for a pair to lay down to an overpair vs overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really what I was getting at...

ML4L

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
You are missing the point ML is making, it's not about making him fold it's about your opponents stack size. Figure # of likely outs, size of pot if you pot it and he calls and look at where you'll be at the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

ML4L

[AZK]

Yeah, I'm a [censored], Thanks IHateCats and ML4L. Good points about flop bet.

[edge]

Stack size management is something I should really work on. I just fire standard-proportioned bets at every opportunity.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Stack size management is something I should really work on. I just fire standard-proportioned bets at every opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same. It'd be excellent if IHC and ML4L could expand on the subject sometime.

[IHateCats]

I'm most concerned about my bet size in situations where I'm out of position with either a made hand on a draw heavy board or a very strong drawing hand that I'm willing to play aggressively like this one. What you have to do is look at stack sizes and think ahead about where the different bet sizes will leave you in terms of pot size and implied odds. It's somewhat of a disaster to do what AZK's line did, create a pot that leaves you out of position on the turn with a good drawing hand (more than 11 outs) but with a pot size that's less than 2/3 the remaining stacks, especially since in this case your big pair outs will pretty much ensure you won't get paid off on the river for his remaning stack if that A or Q comes, in this case I suspect you are much more likely to get called with a marginal hand if the 3rd spade comes which is different than usual with flush draws. Of course it might kill you if it's what hits his fh but so be it. Much, much better to maximize your fold equity and play it aggressively from the begining and create a situation on the turn where your decision on the river doesn't rely on an assumption of a ridiculously high fold equity to be correct if you are correct in assuming he has something like 88, especially since you were picked off a few hands ago for 3 barrel bluffing.

With a made hand, it's the reverse issue, you absolutely don't want to leave yourself pot stuck to a point where you have to pay off a draw but gave them solid implied odds to draw because the pot size on the river will leave you with less than 35% of the pot size in your stack. You have to be thinking about manipulating the pot size right from your inital preflop bet, especially if you think you're likely to be HU on the flop and your opponents have less than 150x the BB because an aggressively bet pot can grow to cover that quite quickly. I think you'll find that most of the players who maintain a 3 PTBB or better long term win rate at 10/20 or above are quite cognizant of this and bet accordingly.

[IHateCats]

That's why ML4L is The Man.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm most concerned about my bet size in situations where I'm out of position with either a made hand on a draw heavy board or a very strong drawing hand that I'm willing to play aggressively like this one. What you have to do is look at stack sizes and think ahead about where the different bet sizes will leave you in terms of pot size and implied odds. It's somewhat of a disaster to do what AZK's line did, create a pot that leaves you out of position on the turn with a good drawing hand (more than 11 outs) but with a pot size that's less than 2/3 the remaining stacks, especially since in this case your big pair outs will pretty much ensure you won't get paid off on the river for his remaning stack if that A or Q comes, in this case I suspect you are much more likely to get called with a marginal hand if the 3rd spade comes which is different than usual with flush draws. Of course it might kill you if it's what hits his fh but so be it. Much, much better to maximize your fold equity and play it aggressively from the begining and create a situation on the turn where your decision on the river doesn't rely on an assumption of a ridiculously high fold equity to be correct if you are correct in assuming he has something like 88, especially since you were picked off a few hands ago for 3 barrel bluffing.

With a made hand, it's the reverse issue, you absolutely don't want to leave yourself pot stuck to a point where you have to pay off a draw but gave them solid implied odds to draw because the pot size on the river will leave you with less than 35% of the pot size in your stack. You have to be thinking about manipulating the pot size right from your inital preflop bet, especially if you think you're likely to be HU on the flop and your opponents have less than 150x the BB because an aggressively bet pot can grow to cover that quite quickly. I think you'll find that most of the players who maintain a 3 PTBB or better long term win rate at 10/20 or above are quite cognizant of this and bet accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur.

ML4L

[Ryendal]

[ QUOTE ]
With a made hand, it's the reverse issue, you absolutely don't want to leave yourself pot stuck to a point where you have to pay off a draw but gave them solid implied odds to draw because the pot size on the river will leave you with less than 35% of the pot size in your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

From where does this 35% come ? Do you mean if you have more than 35% you are not pot commited ? or is it a number calculated in this example ? ( English is not easy for me, thank you for your understanding and your help )

[IHateCats]

It's a somewhat arbitrary # on where you're pot stuck against most players when an obvious draw gets there. Less than 25%, checking and folding is a mistake against most aggressive players becuase more often than 1 in 4 your opponent wasn't actually drawing and was also playing a made hand of some sort and will bet at you hoping to represent the draw. More than 40% and you can likely lay it down and be correct often enough to make it a good laydown. All this depends on the nature of the draw, how likely it was that your opponent was drawing at all and how aggressive they are, like most things in poker it's relative.

[Officer Farva]

Tremendous post, thanks.

[Endlestorm]

IHC,
Thank you for elaborating. I found the first paragraph very helpful, but after reading the second one over and over I'm still unsure what the conclusion is. Could you clarify the made-hand issue?
Thanks

[Endlestorm]

Ok, read it once more. So are you saying you should be planning on raising proportionally to the stack sizes, not necessarily the BB pf (if it looks like it will be HU)?

Say AZK had ATd in this case. Is there a fine balance between giving villain a bad price and not committing yourself to the pot if he decides to draw anyway?
Thanks once more.