AKo against an ultra-tight UTG raise [Archive]

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paperboyNC

11-14-2005, 10:04 PM

UTG+1 is 20/3/0.81. He has only raised pre-flop 4 times in 144 hands. So I don't want to 3-bet, but if he has QQ or JJ I have a lot of outs. thoughts?

Empire Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.fourthnut.com/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 5 folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.70 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.70 BB

A_C_Slater

11-14-2005, 10:12 PM

If he could only have AA-JJ or AK then you should fold the flop. You don't have odds to draw to your six possibly dirty outs. Or you're drawing to a split.

Borodog

11-14-2005, 10:13 PM

3-bet preflop. 144 hands is nowhere near enough of a read to do this.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 11:01 PM

I play it the same. The 3-bet preflop is completely without value against the pfr, and the BB coming along isn't a horrible proposition.

Borodog

11-14-2005, 11:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same. The 3-bet preflop is completely without value against the pfr, and the BB coming along isn't a horrible proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 5 players to Hero's left and he has AK. Three. Bet.

paperboyNC

11-15-2005, 10:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There are 5 players to Hero's left and he has AK. Three. Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If his range is JJ-AA, AK, shouldn't I fold instead?

brazilio

11-15-2005, 11:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same. The 3-bet preflop is completely without value against the pfr, and the BB coming along isn't a horrible proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 5 players to Hero's left and he has AK. Three. Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are possibly the stupidest small stakes poster ever.

peterchi

11-15-2005, 12:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same. The 3-bet preflop is completely without value against the pfr, and the BB coming along isn't a horrible proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm confused.

If I'm not 3-betting this pre-flop, then I don't even wanna play it...

11-15-2005, 12:58 PM

Even though you have only 144 hands, he seems tight. Lets say his raising ranges is a bit looser than what you said --AA-TT, and AK or AQ. Given that you have AK:

1. There are 6 combos you're way behind (3 other AA combos, and 3 other KK combos)

2. There are 12 combos you're strongly ahead of (12 other AQs)

3. There are 27 combos you're around even with (6-QQ,6-JJ, 6-TT and 9 other AK)

given the above (that the range of hands you are up against is at worst equal with you), and that you have position for the rest of the hand, and that a 3-bet should take the blinds money as well, its a definite 3-bet

11-15-2005, 01:00 PM

When I said 12 other AQs, I meant 12 other AQ combinations(plural), not 12 other AQ-suited

Thebram

11-15-2005, 01:10 PM

brazilio

11-15-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same. The 3-bet preflop is completely without value against the pfr, and the BB coming along isn't a horrible proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm confused.

If I'm not 3-betting this pre-flop, then I don't even wanna play it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Gaining the initiative against a weak and very passive opponent seems pretty overrated here. Our 3-bet isn't for value against anything our opponent has, and dead money in the blinds is likely to make this a better than coinflip scenario. I'm loathe to fold it, but I've done a similar action with TT before. Perhaps folding both is appropriate.

Roland19

11-15-2005, 01:31 PM

If we three bet, the preflop raiser is going to cap with those hands that have us seriously in trouble, and just call with all other hands (AK, JJ, QQ, 10s maybe), which gives us more information about his hand, which will lead us to make better decisions on later streets. Also, I think it's good to have him isolated, and three betting certainly increases these chances. How flawed is my thinking?

SenecaJim

11-15-2005, 01:46 PM

Most all of my play is live, but I have gone MORE than 144 hands without seeing A-K,Q, or J and a pocketpair no higher than 6's. Well, my place deals a little slow but this was a 10 hour session so at least 230-280 hands.

I would not assume on 144 hands that he will only raise with hands you say. I would 3-bet this. If he has A's or K's , so be it. If he has AK, more likely, you can probably get him off the hand with position.And of course, a good run at other pp's mentioned)

I think not 3-betting here is weak-tight. I'm not criticizing, we all make weak-tight mistakes sometimes, I did it last night not protecting K's with A on flop. (should've raised the lead-out).

Sure, I would have lost the extra bet cause this guy will go to river to match kicker( he had J8 with 8 on board), but it was still a mistake. I think not 3-betting AK here is a mistake. IF he is as tight as you suspect and caps it, you should have pretty good idea where you stand.

SenecaJim

11-15-2005, 01:49 PM

Roland, your post arrived while I was typing mine so I didn't mean to be redundant. But , since we seem to think along same lines I , at least, dont' think your thinking is flawed whatsoever. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SenecaJim

11-15-2005, 01:57 PM

ps. yours was a pre-flop question. What happens next is of no consequence. In fact, seeing that info can alter respones. One was response was about folding on flop, which I'm not disputing, but wasnt' what you ask.

I'm not raggin you for doing it, just pointing out something from experience.

Borodog

11-15-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same. The 3-bet preflop is completely without value against the pfr, and the BB coming along isn't a horrible proposition.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 5 players to Hero's left and he has AK. Three. Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are possibly the stupidest small stakes poster ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. And you're an idiot.

If you would like to show mathematically how 140 hands is enough of a read to cold call with, and let in five people, most with position on you, with an offsuit unpaired hand that only makes one straight, be my guest.

W. Deranged

11-15-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There are 5 players to Hero's left and he has AK. Three. Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If his range is JJ-AA, AK, shouldn't I fold instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding should certainly be considered if your read is solid enough. In middle position, I think the merits of a three-bet are much better than those of a cold-call.

I'm usually three-betting unless I have reason to believe that 3% is rock-solid (if it's really 5% or something a fold here would be pretty bad).

I think it's important to realize that by calling here we are essentially saying that we believe we have a reasonable amount of equity against the pfr. If that's the case, our equity should really be at least around 50% on average, in which case raising becomes an option. Since we can get the hand heads-up, buy the button, and gain the initiative when up against another AK or if the flop comes Q high and villain has JJ or TT or something, my thought is that if we think we should play we really do need to raise here.