($27) PUSH or FOLD challenge [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

durron597

11-14-2005, 09:30 PM

Tightish blinds. BB is poster Hyperion. I've been raping his blinds (edit2: read, last 2 orbits where it was folded to me) mostly because that's when I've had pushable hands. SB is good but on the tight side for a big stack, at least preflop.

Please reply to the poll before checking SnGPT - I certainly didn't have time during the hand.

Edit: note "by raping his blinds" I mean I'm pushing about once / orbit, give or take. I only pushed once in the last ten hands prior.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

MP (t3225)
Hero (t2170)
SB (t5130)
BB (t1935)
UTG (t1040)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

handsome

11-14-2005, 09:31 PM

I voted push.

11-14-2005, 10:03 PM

Easy push. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I got owned today.

durron597

11-14-2005, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Easy push. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I got owned today.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad at least you agree with me. BTW, the first time I pushed on you I had QdJd, the second time KJo.

What's your call range there if I may ask?

11-14-2005, 10:11 PM

So -EV saying this, but I'm prolly moving back to PP soon once I finally organise ... stuff.

I'ld be calling a tad looser than normal, so maybe A5o,A2s,KTo+,44+

*Then checks SNGPT to see how bad my range is*

11-14-2005, 10:16 PM

Crap ... I'm too tight. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Have to learn how to spite call more often I guess. Given my [censored] tight calling range it's a push, but it's much closer than I thought.

BTW Everytime you pushed I had junk so yeah, no decision for me.

durron597

11-14-2005, 10:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Crap ... I'm too tight. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Have to learn how to spite call more often I guess. Given my [censored] tight calling range it's a push, but it's much closer than I thought.

BTW Everytime you pushed I had junk so yeah, no decision for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

These stack sizes are borderline for me pushing on you with crap here. And I'm not pushing 32o, 97o is just the very bottom of my range. Something like top 65%. 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3o+,J2s+,T6o+,T3s+,97o+,95s+,86s+ ,76s is top 65% and that's about right, I might fold some of the worse suited tens and T6o.

11-14-2005, 10:25 PM

I voted fold before checking, but it looks like it's really close and a matter of ranges once I plugged it into SNGPT. Assuming BB knows you, he probably ought to be calling a reasonably wide range, at least top 20-25%. That alone won't make it a fold, but BB ought to be calling a fairly similar range, and even if he's as tight as 15% it's only about break-even.

I guess it all depends on how likely you think it is big stack will finally realize how many chips he has. I'm guessing he's eventually going to decide he's had enough of you stealing the blinds he wants to take...

durron597

11-14-2005, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing he's eventually going to decide he's had enough of you stealing the blinds he wants to take...

[/ QUOTE ]

I really was only stealing once per orbit and I think I missed the previous orbit. It just happened to be Hyperion's blind every time is all.

pineapple888

11-14-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess it all depends on how likely you think it is big stack will finally realize how many chips he has. I'm guessing he's eventually going to decide he's had enough of you stealing the blinds he wants to take...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, somebody remembered the SB has a ton of chips! That's why I voted "fold".

pooh74

11-14-2005, 10:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it all depends on how likely you think it is big stack will finally realize how many chips he has. I'm guessing he's eventually going to decide he's had enough of you stealing the blinds he wants to take...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, somebody remembered the SB has a ton of chips! That's why I voted "fold".

[/ QUOTE ]

so? Thats a terrible reason on its own. push this one up their a$$es

pooh74

11-14-2005, 10:49 PM

Ok...now I checked it out. BB on maniac and SB on loose makes the a +.9.

My point above is only that even giving SB a loose range may be too conservative. There would have to be some overriding circumstance to fold here. For example, if my sister was on fire in the next room and I had to choose between pouring water on her or pushing...I'd put her out and time out.

pineapple888

11-14-2005, 10:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok...now I checked it out. BB on maniac and SB on loose makes the a +.9.

My point above is only that even giving SB a loose range may be too conservative. There would have to be some overriding circumstance to fold here. For example, if my sister was on fire in the next room and I had to choose between pouring water on her or pushing...I'd put her out and time out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Glad it's so obvious. The evidence is clearly overwhelming. Sorry to trouble you.

bawcerelli

11-14-2005, 10:58 PM

fold. hyperion knows you're pushing a wide range, SB might wake up. look for a better spot to push you fackin lag! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

pooh74

11-14-2005, 10:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok...now I checked it out. BB on maniac and SB on loose makes the a +.9.

My point above is only that even giving SB a loose range may be too conservative. There would have to be some overriding circumstance to fold here. For example, if my sister was on fire in the next room and I had to choose between pouring water on her or pushing...I'd put her out and time out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Glad it's so obvious. The evidence is clearly overwhelming. Sorry to trouble you.

[/ QUOTE ]

? no trouble whatsoever...it took like 5 secs.

runner4life7

11-14-2005, 11:02 PM

I push any two with 5xBB easily and with just over 5x and better than 32o I think this should be pretty easy.

durron597

11-14-2005, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold. hyperion knows you're pushing a wide range, SB might wake up. look for a better spot to push you fackin lag! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but hyperion knows that I know that he knows I'm pushing a wide range. So that means I'm not pushing any two, just a lot of things. He even said himself he's folding the worst offsuit aces.

Plus the sb is definitely much tighter than he should be here.

Shillx

11-14-2005, 11:26 PM

Ok...now I checked it out. BB on maniac and SB on loose makes the a +.9.

/images/graemlins/confused.gif There is no way that this can be right. I would probably fold here if the BB knew I was a 2+2er. It goes to a push IMO if you know who he is and he doesn't know who you are (and thus gives you a tighter range). I would also be more inclined to push if the SB folds too much here and gives the BB a walk. It seems like a very tough choice to me.

After running the program, it is a 1.3% mistake to push if the SB is on L and the BB is on M. That is kinda what I figured...though a push still might be correct here. They just have to play somewhat tighter then that. After looking at sngpt it is still a very tough choice and I can't really blame either decision here.

Brad

bawcerelli

11-14-2005, 11:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold. hyperion knows you're pushing a wide range, SB might wake up. look for a better spot to push you fackin lag! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but hyperion knows that I know that he knows I'm pushing a wide range. So that means I'm not pushing any two, just a lot of things. He even said himself he's folding the worst offsuit aces.

Plus the sb is definitely much tighter than he should be here.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if he knows that you know that he knows that you know...etc.... the bottom line is you want his blinds and he knows it, so his range will be wider.

pooh74

11-14-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[

After running the program, it is a 1.3% mistake to push if the SB is on L and the BB is on M. blame either decision here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

When I do it it gives me +.5 for the above ranges. Someone messed up.

durron597

11-15-2005, 12:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[

After running the program, it is a 1.3% mistake to push if the SB is on L and the BB is on M. blame either decision here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

When I do it it gives me +.5 for the above ranges. Someone messed up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I get also. SB on average (which I think is too tight here) gives you the +.9.

gisb0rne

11-15-2005, 01:47 AM

I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

ilya

11-15-2005, 01:51 AM

I voted fold.

pooh74

11-15-2005, 02:44 AM

HesseJam

11-15-2005, 04:21 AM

I voted fold. Just an educated guess...

durron597

11-15-2005, 09:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what 30% really means though! Are you calling with K4s as either player? I'm not, and I strongly doubt you are either.

If it wasn't clear in the OP - I was playing on the tight side but not *very tight*. One hand per orbit (and I missed last orbit) is not "LAG". I coincidentally happened to have showdownable hands on Hyperion's blind. But he knows it's me and I know he knows it's me. Plus he was playing tight today and I don't know if he realized I realized that. With these stack sizes - Hyperion has to call with a widish range because of his stack, but he's not cooked if he folds. Next hand, UTG is calling me if I push, so I need a hand. The hand after that, I'm UTG 5 handed, so I need a good hand to show down as 3rd place stack. The hand after that, I'm posting 20% of my stack in the blind, so suddenly I'm in the unenviable position of calling a push from Hyperion or UTG (from the OP) with a hand like K4s. I think I'd rather take my chances with FE now than be screwed as the shortstack later.

pooh74

11-15-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about what 30% really means though! Are you calling with K4s as either player? I'm not, and I strongly doubt you are either.

If it wasn't clear in the OP - I was playing on the tight side but not *very tight*. One hand per orbit (and I missed last orbit) is not "LAG". I coincidentally happened to have showdownable hands on Hyperion's blind. But he knows it's me and I know he knows it's me. Plus he was playing tight today and I don't know if he realized I realized that. With these stack sizes - Hyperion has to call with a widish range because of his stack, but he's not cooked if he folds. Next hand, UTG is calling me if I push, so I need a hand. The hand after that, I'm UTG 5 handed, so I need a good hand to show down as 3rd place stack. The hand after that, I'm posting 20% of my stack in the blind, so suddenly I'm in the unenviable position of calling a push from Hyperion or UTG (from the OP) with a hand like K4s. I think I'd rather take my chances with FE now than be screwed as the shortstack later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well put D!

11-15-2005, 01:15 PM

You can find a push/call equilibrium at:

push 35%
SB call 15%
BB call 21%

If you convert these % to ranges, you get:
push 22+,A2+,KTo+,K5s+,QTo+,Q7s+,J9o+,J7s+,T9o,T7s+,97s +,86s+,76s
SB call 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+
BB call 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+,QJs

If you use these ranges is SNGPT, there isn't an equilibrium -- something about the conversion of % to range throws things off (presumably because the ranges are not exactly a whole number %).

If the SB or BB is calling more often, the button wants to push less often. If the SB or BB is calling less often, the button wants to push more often. It doesn't take much of a change in calling ranges to make a big change in pushing range: if the SB calls 12% and the BB calls 17%, button's pushing range becomes 84%; if the SB call 19% and the BB calls 25%, button's pushing range is 21%.

97o isn't in the equilibrium pushing range, but it's pretty close; it doesn't take much of an adjustment to put 97o in the pushing range.

Even given near-perfect play from the BB and SB, I don't think you can definitively answer this question. A small error in either direction by either the BB or the SB will move the button pushing range significantly.

This may, however, be a situation where you can exploit imperfect play. If you think the actual BB and SB calling ranges deviate significantly from the equilibrium point, you should be able to exploit this to give yourself large +EV positions.

tigerite

11-15-2005, 01:22 PM

Without doing any calcs, I voted for a marginal push. I thought it was close though. After reading the following posts, it seems I was correct on both counts.

Iamafish

11-15-2005, 01:30 PM

I voted push simply becuase of the information you gave about SB being tight, I like being the aggressor, and In a 27, they have much tighter calling ranges than a 16. Im also assuming it will be 300/600 soon, try to take em here. In a 16, I'd fold pretty quickly.

gisb0rne

11-15-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But he knows it's me and I know he knows it's me. Plus he was playing tight today and I don't know if he realized I realized that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Part of my point was how do you know he (or the SB) is playing tight? Unless you can see what he's folding there's no way you can know this information. I play hyperaggressive heads up, but I've folded the SB 4 or 5 times in a row on many occasions because I never held a card higher than an 8. I'm sure my opponent thought I was playing very tight.

It turns out you were right because he confirmed it but at the table I don't think it's correct to assume something like that with so little information.

durron597

11-15-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Part of my point was how do you know he (or the SB) is playing tight? Unless you can see what he's folding there's no way you can know this information. I play hyperaggressive heads up, but I've folded the SB 4 or 5 times in a row on many occasions because I never held a card higher than an 8. I'm sure my opponent thought I was playing very tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

He folded 14/15 of the first 3 levels except for 1 limp in level 3. His PFR% for levels 6 and 7 (100/200) was 11% over 17 hands. Of course I didn't know those numbers then, I just got a general feeling that he was in a tight mood that day. Sometimes poker is about instinct. At the time when I pushed this my thought was "well crap, my hand sucks but I really need to push now, ok, these guys are playing tightish, it's probably close I'll chance it."

pooh74

11-15-2005, 02:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Part of my point was how do you know he (or the SB) is playing tight? Unless you can see what he's folding there's no way you can know this information. I play hyperaggressive heads up, but I've folded the SB 4 or 5 times in a row on many occasions because I never held a card higher than an 8. I'm sure my opponent thought I was playing very tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

He folded 14/15 of the first 3 levels except for 1 limp in level 3. His PFR% for levels 6 and 7 (100/200) was 11% over 17 hands. Of course I didn't know those numbers then, I just got a general feeling that he was in a tight mood that day. Sometimes poker is about instinct. At the time when I pushed this my thought was "well crap, my hand sucks but I really need to push now, ok, these guys are playing tightish, it's probably close I'll chance it."

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your argument about what happens when you DON'T push here better. Looking at agression #s overall is not very helpful usually. Unless you isolate this blind level.

But w/o being there, I will stand by this push all day.

bigt439

11-15-2005, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Without doing any calcs, I voted for a marginal push. I thought it was close though. After reading the following posts, it seems I was correct on both counts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stoneii

11-15-2005, 03:28 PM

Mine was a fold vote

MikeSmith

11-15-2005, 03:30 PM

Id fold because you have stolen blinds 2 orbits in a row and you have a table image of a stealer, if i was the sb big stack and had almost anything id call you because of this(unless you showed your legitimate push hands). If you didnt steal the previous 2 orbits id go with push.

durron597

11-15-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Id fold because you have stolen blinds 2 orbits in a row and you have a table image of a stealer, if i was the sb big stack and had almost anything id call you because of this(unless you showed your legitimate push hands. If you didnt steal the previous 2 orbits id go with push.

[/ QUOTE ]

It went one steal/one steal/no steal/this orbit.

MikeSmith

11-15-2005, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Id fold because you have stolen blinds 2 orbits in a row and you have a table image of a stealer, if i was the sb big stack and had almost anything id call you because of this(unless you showed your legitimate push hands. If you didnt steal the previous 2 orbits id go with push.

[/ QUOTE ]

It went one steal/one steal/no steal/this orbit.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh ok....PUSH!!!