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MLG
11-14-2005, 08:36 PM
1st 30 mins of the Foxwoods ME. 4 limpers and I limp with 74s on the button. SB completes and big blind raises 200 more (blinds 25/50). All call. Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Blinds check and JohnnyBax (Cliff Josephy in real life) bets 750 from UTG+2. I call, we both started the hand with 11-12k. All else fold. Turn is a black J. Bax bets 1450, I call. River is a black 2. Bax checks, I....

Firefly
11-14-2005, 08:38 PM
That was you? No comment then. I'll comment after

11-14-2005, 08:38 PM
Its a PUSH (kidding, MLG tagline)

I check behind here with no kicker a lot. Just from how aggressively he played the flop and turn.

Firefly
11-14-2005, 08:39 PM
I'm pretty sure he raises JJ preflop here.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 08:40 PM
Ohhhhh so you were the donkey-villain in that cardplayer update :P.

I don't know, his line can't be much other than a 7 I dont think. Maybe a missed draw that hit a jack or something will pay you off, but I doubt he has that.

Live, against a player like Cliff Josephy, I think I check behind. Online against a random donk I'd bet it.

11-14-2005, 08:41 PM
I'm pretty sure too, I just think MLG is probably ahead, but it seems like an odd hand to post if he was.

11-14-2005, 08:42 PM
If he was drawing he missed and won't call.

If he has a higher 7 or a set, he is luring you in.

But if he has a jack or a pair, a bet can get more money into your stack.

I'd probably bet 2000 and clench and hope he doesn't raise me there, although part of me wants to check behind and see what he has.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 08:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Its a PUSH



[/ QUOTE ]

Um you want to overbet push with trips, 4 kicker, in a deep stacked game?

ActionJeff
11-14-2005, 08:44 PM
Having played endlessly with bax (and watched him a great deal) I think he has a seven also, but has a weak kicker. So, I think checking is in order.

edit- or maybe he has a decent kicker but is checking for pot control, w/e. I don't see you having the best hand here, or being called by a worse hand often.

Exitonly
11-14-2005, 08:45 PM
edit:

On P5's they wrote the board differently, i'm no longer shocked he didnt push.

--

As for your situation, i'm probably betting there everytime.

MLG
11-14-2005, 08:47 PM
stunned he didnt push? what hand calls a push on the river that he beats?

Exitonly
11-14-2005, 08:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
stunned he didnt push? what hand calls a push on the river that he beats?

[/ QUOTE ]


edited.. the cardplayer board made it look like the 7 came on the river. Boh.

11-14-2005, 08:56 PM
first level against bax? please, easy check...

MLG
11-14-2005, 08:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
first level against bax? please, easy check...

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly how does the fact thats its the first level make any difference whatsoever?

scott8
11-14-2005, 09:02 PM
In this hand if I call the turn, I will bet the river most times.

The bigger problem is the size of the bet IMO.

CardSharpCook
11-14-2005, 09:02 PM
delightful bet/fold situation. Throw 2k into the pot.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 09:08 PM
[ QUOTE ]
delightful bet/fold situation. Throw 2k into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Name some hands that pay him off.

scott8
11-14-2005, 09:12 PM
8s - 10s. Flop was draw heavy.

If Bax knows MLG. . .

Also 73 obviously. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

MLG
11-14-2005, 09:13 PM
bax definitely knows me. we had dinner together durring the 2k event.

11-14-2005, 09:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
first level against bax? please, easy check...

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly how does the fact thats its the first level make any difference whatsoever?

[/ QUOTE ]

call me weak-tight, but i hold a vulnerable hand (even with the river check) and there's already 1160 BB's in the pot, so i don't feel the need to make the pot any larger...

so what was the outcome?

ansky451
11-14-2005, 09:14 PM
So you think Bax doesn't open raise with those hands, then bets into 7 people with them on that board, then fires again on the turn?

ansky451
11-14-2005, 09:15 PM
You're not going to hear the outcome here yet, he posted this like 20 minutes ago. If you try real hard you can find it on cardplayer.

The pot is not 50,000 btw.

scott8
11-14-2005, 09:16 PM
I certainly don't think you open raise with these hands every time UTG+2.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 09:19 PM
Of course not always, but when I don't I'm playing for set value. I definitely don't play 88 this fast if I limp it... And I dont think you do either, am I wrong?

11-14-2005, 09:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You're not going to hear the outcome here yet, he posted this like 20 minutes ago. If you try real hard you can find it on cardplayer.

The pot is not 50,000 btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops, i meant 116 BB's (5800 pot)... thanks for the cardplayer heads-up...

scott8
11-14-2005, 09:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
So you think Bax doesn't open raise with those hands, then bets into 7 people with them on that board, then fires again on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, if this is your thinking, then why call the flop or thr turn? I understand that you haven't advocated any part of MLG's play, but if you think Bax only takes this line with a hand stronger than what I mentioned, then fold the flop.

MLG
11-14-2005, 09:22 PM
I should have said this in the opening post. There was a limper before Bax, either UTG, or UTG+1.

Lloyd
11-14-2005, 09:26 PM
I guess it's possible that he has TT-88. He might limp with those in EP. I can't see him semi-bluffing with a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw into all of those people. AA-JJ don't make sense. 7x and 55 certainly do. Bottom line is I really don't see anything that he could have that will call any bet by the hero on the river (at least any of substance and I wouldn't want to make a small bet that get's raised). His 1/2 pot-sized bets on both the flop and turn definitely smell like a pretty big hand. I'd check behind.

scott8
11-14-2005, 09:28 PM
Why call the turn then?

EverettKings
11-14-2005, 09:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
1st 30 mins of the Foxwoods ME. 4 limpers and I limp with 74s on the button. SB completes and big blind raises 200 more (blinds 25/50). All call. Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Blinds check and JohnnyBax (Cliff Josephy in real life) bets 750 from UTG+2. I call, we both started the hand with 11-12k. All else fold. Turn is a black J. Bax bets 1450, I call. River is a black 2. Bax checks, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

I see absolutely no value in a bet. Give me one worse hand that Bax calls with here against you. I can't think of any. I think you see 87s/76s a lot here (he thinks he's good but knows he'll throw up if you raise him on the river, and doesn't see you calling with many hands). He could also partially be checking to see if you'll bet a missed draw or bluff on a fake slowplay. Etc etc. In any case I don't see you being ahead a ton here, and the times when you are ahead I don't see him calling a bet.

Everett

11-14-2005, 09:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're not going to hear the outcome here yet, he posted this like 20 minutes ago. If you try real hard you can find it on cardplayer.

The pot is not 50,000 btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops, i meant 116 BB's (5800 pot)... thanks for the cardplayer heads-up...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if the amount of big bets has any relevance in this hand though, it isn't limit.

Given I have no idea who Johnny Bax is, I'd still stick to a 2000 bet and fold if he raises, anything smaller will get raised, and anything bigger is giving away more chips to a hand that has you smoked.

I don't mind a check on the end either, if even only for future knowledge.

scott8
11-14-2005, 09:33 PM
And I also want to add that I have seen in deep stack big buy-in poker, people over limp bigger hands than 88-1010 in the early stages.

Lloyd
11-14-2005, 09:35 PM
MLG not making a bet on the river is because it will only get called by hands he is behind. That's very different than the decision MLG has on the turn. The villain could certainly make the turn bet with hands that MLG is ahead of (like TT-88). It's one of those situations that a bet will only be called when you don't want to be called, so why make it.

billyjex
11-14-2005, 09:39 PM
I'm posting blind here --

I think it's a check, or maybe a bet/fold. I just don't feel there's much value in a bet for you here -- I think he is limping w/ 87, 67, 97 kind of hands here and is 1) worried you have him beat and 2) he might put you on a busted draw and is inducing a bluff. Also for Johnny to bet in large field in a raised pot, I just have to think he is very strong here.

I suppose one hand that you have beat, that he might call a river bet here with, is 88-TT. The pot is pretty big already though, and I don't want to be faced w/ a river C/R (although this would mean you're beat probably 99.9% of the time.)

11-14-2005, 09:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're not going to hear the outcome here yet, he posted this like 20 minutes ago. If you try real hard you can find it on cardplayer.

The pot is not 50,000 btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops, i meant 116 BB's (5800 pot)... thanks for the cardplayer heads-up...

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure if the amount of big bets has any relevance in this hand though, it isn't limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

just my way of saying that this pot doesn't need a sweetener on the end... value-betting a pot of this size requires risking a significant % of your chips (if this pot was around 1000-1500, it wouldn't be nearly as dangerous)...

11-14-2005, 09:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're not going to hear the outcome here yet, he posted this like 20 minutes ago. If you try real hard you can find it on cardplayer.

The pot is not 50,000 btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops, i meant 116 BB's (5800 pot)... thanks for the cardplayer heads-up...

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure if the amount of big bets has any relevance in this hand though, it isn't limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

just my way of saying that this pot doesn't need a sweetener on the end... value-betting a pot of this size requires risking a significant % of your chips (if this pot was around 1000-1500, it wouldn't be nearly as dangerous)...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can agree with checking because someone might be slowplaying and we are real behind, and not many hands will call a bet that we have beat right now.

But I can't see the argument of missing a value bet simply because the pot is already large.

SossMan
11-14-2005, 09:53 PM
Given the fact that you are posting this now, I think you should have checked behind.

MLG
11-14-2005, 09:57 PM
well, that and our phone conversation.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 09:57 PM
I think Bax can have a big draw possibly. I realize it's contradictory to say to call flop and turn, and not bet the river because Bax can't have a worse hand, but it doesn't change the fact that I can't see him getting called by a worse hand.

Lloyd
11-14-2005, 10:00 PM
You think he'd lead out even with a big draw in a raised flop into like 5 people?

Lloyd
11-14-2005, 10:01 PM
And it's not necessarily that Bax can't have a worse hand, it's that Bax won't call MLG's river bet with a worse hand so if there's downside with no upside why make it.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 10:08 PM
Ugh, Caldarooni has me all confused now.

Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn?

I play it the same way as MLG the whole way, and I check the river if I'm on my game. If I'm playing stupid, I bet like half pot. If I'm playing really stupid, I bet full pot.

scott8
11-14-2005, 10:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, Caldarooni has me all confused now.

Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn?

I play it the same way as MLG the whole way, and I check the river if I'm on my game. If I'm playing stupid, I bet like half pot. If I'm playing really stupid, I bet full pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

My work here is done. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

ansky451
11-14-2005, 10:13 PM
Er, that's not to say that you were playing stupid if you bet, just not something I would do.

ansky451
11-14-2005, 10:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh, Caldarooni has me all confused now.

Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn?

I play it the same way as MLG the whole way, and I check the river if I'm on my game. If I'm playing stupid, I bet like half pot. If I'm playing really stupid, I bet full pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

My work here is done. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

damn.

I actually definitely would have bet this river, but I think it's wrong. Thats the type of little thing I make mistakes with a lot. [censored].

FWIW This is a fantastic hand to discuss MLG.

MeanGreenTT
11-14-2005, 10:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW This is a fantastic hand to discuss MLG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want to add my thanks as well. I have a "real" job unfortuantely and don't get to play nearly at all as much as I'd like, and for my time here, I feel my playing time and knowledge is lacking FAR behind. But I learn a TON from threads like this, only hope I can catch up one of these days!

11-14-2005, 10:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Not sure if the amount of big bets has any relevance in this hand though, it isn't limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

just my way of saying that this pot doesn't need a sweetener on the end... value-betting a pot of this size requires risking a significant % of your chips (if this pot was around 1000-1500, it wouldn't be nearly as dangerous)...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can agree with checking because someone might be slowplaying and we are real behind, and not many hands will call a bet that we have beat right now.

But I can't see the argument of missing a value bet simply because the pot is already large.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not really what i'm saying (in this hand, i don't think there's a value bet to be made)-- i'm saying that the size of the pot does affect the dynamic of river play in nlhe tournies...

if this pot is 1000-1200 and MLG feels he's in a spot to value-bet, then he can throw in 400-500 on the end... if he's check-raised to 1200-1500, it's still possible to get to showdown (if he chooses to do so)...

with 5800 in the pot, a value bet has to be at least 1500-2000 and a check-raise will be at least 4000-5000 (some players will even chack-raise here with air), making a showdown practically impossible (unless you're DAMN sure your hand is good)...

i guess i'm just saying that the larger the pot, the higher my degree of certainty has to be in order to value-bet (barring any reads, of course)...

scott8
11-14-2005, 10:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
And it's not necessarily that Bax can't have a worse hand, it's that Bax won't call MLG's river bet with a worse hand so if there's downside with no upside why make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have problem with this, but no real facts to back it up.

If you argue he would bet 10s through 8s on the turn, then I believe he would have some potential to call a certain bet on the river.

The problem is, I don't think he bets 8s through 10s on the turn, so I think you fold the turn.

Finally, doesnt his call on the river tell you something about his calling range?

Or do you think that was as low as he would go? (I don't. Do you see why?)

ansky451
11-14-2005, 10:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
edit- or maybe he has a decent kicker but is checking for pot control, w/e. I don't see you having the best hand here, or being called by a worse hand often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a blocking bet be a better way of exersizing pot control? How is

Lloyd
11-14-2005, 10:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Well Lloyd, shouldn't we have folded flop then, and if not the flop, then the turn, since he rarely bets with less than trips by the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there are several hands he bets the flop with that we are ahead of. At the same time, I think MLG realized that this is a way ahead/way behind hand which could be why he just called and didn't raise - control the pot size if we're behind and let him fire again if by chance we're ahead.

On the turn, it certainly get's more complicated. But I do think he could bet the turn with TT-88. He might be thinking that MLG is setting him up for a semi-bluff, or that MLG's on a draw. There are hands that he'll fire again with and I think we call because we're getting 3 to 1 on our money and that's certainly good enough against his range.

Edit: In addition, if he has something like 76 or 87 we actually have 38% pot equity primarily because of the possibility of a split pot. And those types of 7x hands are certainly more likely than something like Q7 or J7.

If we give him a range of TT-88, A7s-K7s, 87-76, 75s we're a pretty big favorite. If we reduce the chance that he has TT-88 by 50% (keeping the other hand combinations) we're still a favorite.

MLG
11-15-2005, 01:13 AM
I'll bump this once, for the late nighters. I'll post thoughts and results tomorrow.

woodguy
11-15-2005, 01:26 AM
Pretty easy check I think.

If he only has trips, its better than yours.

The only hands that I think he plays this way and calls on the river which you beat are 66-TT, which wouldn't be out of his range here given the action.

On the other hand, if you're raised you can muck comfortably.

Meh, I'm weak tight on the river and check behind too often, but I really don't have a great reason to bet here.

On the other hand, you called twice, so you'd have to think he thinks if you have a made hand you'd call again so a value bet is in order if he likes his hand (unless he thinks he can count on you to bluff a missed draw), which is bad if he's capable of c/r TT here putting you on a missed draw, you may fold a winner.

Closer than it originally looks, but weak-tight me checks behind.

Regards,
Woodguy

archangel
11-15-2005, 01:28 AM
FYI - the cardplayer account of JohnnyBax's reaction to the hand is interesting

woodguy
11-15-2005, 01:31 AM
[ QUOTE ]
FYI - the cardplayer account of JohnnyBax's reaction to the hand is interesting

[/ QUOTE ]

link?

Regards,
Woodguy

TheTimeIsUp
11-15-2005, 01:35 AM
Interested in a link, as well.

gergery
11-15-2005, 01:35 AM
Hmm, if he has a 7, its likely to be A7, 87, 76 which means you are in trouble. I'm not sure a good player bets repeatly into you with 99/88 but its possible, but he surely won't call. I don't see 55 or JJ checking the river, and don't see a bluffy AJ bet the turn.

So i really can't see a worse hand calling you.

I think if you want to bet, you are trying to push out a 7. So I think that is risky, and I don't see a pot size bet or less doing that. Maybe double the pot size might do, to try and represent 55/A7 or something, but that is a strange line and weird bet. On the other hand, I think he'd be hard pressed to muscle up and call an all-in, but the really is LAGgy.

Since i'll give Bax credit for being able to make good reads and put his tourney on the line, I say check and hope he's got TT.

-g


a big bet looking like Given he'll bet getting 2:1you need to represent 55 or maybe A7 and hope he has and will fold

mlagoo
11-15-2005, 01:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Interested in a link, as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope this doesnt screw up any of the discussion. mlg, lemme know if you want me to get rid of it:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tourname...c602e0e6e4976da (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tournaments/event.php?id=3272&screen=logs&PHPSESSID=ff5b705608 2fd5989c602e0e6e4976da)

it should be near the bottom of the page. just look for johnny bax in the first 10-20 updates.

MLG
11-15-2005, 01:39 AM
i was talking with bax about the hand, cardplayer only overheard half the conversation.

archangel
11-15-2005, 01:47 AM
they also seem to have misrepresented the way the board laid out, no?

Kirkrrr
11-15-2005, 01:59 AM
I'm not sure there's any point in value-betting this river. Either you're trying to get him to lay down a better 7, or he has nothing he can call in the first place. If it's the latter - all-in; former - check behind. It depends on what you put him on during the hand. A push would be really cool.

btw - no, you're not going to get called by a hand you beat.

Kirk

CardSharpCook
11-15-2005, 02:50 AM
There are a number of hands that can/should/might check/call this river. AJ, 66-TT, QQ, A5, etc, etc. You can even make a case for calling with ace-high. JB doesn't have to have 7, he doesn't have to have a boat. About the strongest hand that checks this river is 97. In fact, a check from any 7 would surprise me as there are a similarily large number of hands MLG should call this river with AND a very small number of hands that will raise this river.

MLG
11-15-2005, 03:50 PM
For those of you who didn't read the cardplayer update, I bet 2k and bax called after a long think with 76s. I'll go through my decision point by point. I didn't raise the flop, because it lets bax get away from worse hands while making the pot pretty big and making it harder for me to get away from it if the flush draw hits (since i think there are lots of flush draws in his ranger here). When he leads the turn I pretty much eliminate any naked draws but include hands like AJ/KJ/QJ/J10 of diamonds which now are top pair plus flush draws. Also, since it would be hard to put me on a J, and easy to put me on a draw I certainly include 88/99/1010 in his range here, betting because he thinks he has the best hand. Now the river blanks and he checks. Now, here's the thing, there are exactly 3 hands that he can hold with a 7 in them, A7 of spades, 87 of spades, 76 of spades while I think there are a lot of other decent made hands he can hold here. 22 actually, 6 88, 6 99, 6 1010, J10 of diamonds, JQ of diamonds, JK of diamonds, AJ of diamonds. Lets discount that because a lot of the time he will check the turn with those hands, so lets call it 15. Therefore, if he calls more than 1/5 of the time when he's holding those hands its a good bet fore me. I certainly think Bax is good enough to put me on a busted draw and try to snap me off often enough to make the bet.

Lloyd
11-15-2005, 04:22 PM
And what if he raises you? Since you know that he knows that you could have a wide range of hands, he could also have a wide range of hands. That's why I don't like betting. I think we'd have to call a raise and I wouldn't be happy with it.

MLG
11-15-2005, 04:24 PM
if he raises me its a turbo muck. bax is not raising on a bluff here pretty much ever.

schwza
11-15-2005, 04:39 PM
why can't he have clubs? or suited one-gappers? obv. the one-gappers are a little less likely than connectors, but not by that much.

Exitonly
11-15-2005, 04:56 PM
I agree with your analysis, and definitely think you get called by worse hands often enough.. and i wouldnt be particuarly afraid of a cheeck raise on the river, just doesnt seem likely.

woodguy
11-15-2005, 05:05 PM
I didn't even give diamond/pair combo's a thought as I tend not to semi-bluff flush draws OOP on paired boards in multiway pots.

Do you think he semi-bluffs a flush draw with no pair into 7 players on the flop enough to include those hands?

Wouldn't you(if you were Bax) be concerned about getting raised off your draw by a 7 behind you or the BB(PFR) c/r? (assuming the BB is waiting to see what the action on the table is before deciding to continue with his hand)

I just don't think that its likely he's on draw here.

Am I wrong?

Regards,
Woodguy

Roman
11-15-2005, 05:07 PM
I agree with your reasoning in this hand, A raise on the turn works just as well imho, no reason to let him hit the draw you feel he has 4/5 times in this spot. Maybe he will even find a fold for 76s/87s.
On the river I would expand his range to include the occasional 44 and JJ thinking you missed your draw and trying to snap you off.

CardSharpCook
11-15-2005, 05:08 PM
Nice analysis on his possible holdings. I didn't think it through to realize he can ONLY have 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gifX /images/graemlins/spade.gif if he has a 7.

schwza
11-15-2005, 05:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
why can't he have clubs? or suited one-gappers? obv. the one-gappers are a little less likely than connectors, but not by that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i'm an idiot. because MLG has clubs.

i think including the one-gappers is still legit though.

MLG
11-15-2005, 06:08 PM
bax is pretty tight in EP, so while 97 is possible, i think it unlikely and I really really doubt 75.

MLG
11-15-2005, 06:13 PM
I think its pretty clear that the preflop raiser has given up on the pot. If he has a hand like two big diamonds on the flop, betting is pretty reasonable as you're basically ahead of any non 7 hand (generally two overs+flush draw). I think checking there is fine, but you will always need to make your hand to win. By betting, you can sometimes take it down on the turn even if you dont improve.

scott8
11-15-2005, 06:17 PM
Did Bax explain his thinking on the river call?

He obviously didnt think you had a 7.

gergery
11-15-2005, 06:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who didn't read the cardplayer update, I bet 2k and bax called after a long think with 76s. I'll go through my decision point by point. I didn't raise the flop, because it lets bax get away from worse hands while making the pot pretty big and making it harder for me to get away from it if the flush draw hits (since i think there are lots of flush draws in his ranger here). When he leads the turn I pretty much eliminate any naked draws but include hands like AJ/KJ/QJ/J10 of diamonds which now are top pair plus flush draws. Also, since it would be hard to put me on a J, and easy to put me on a draw I certainly include 88/99/1010 in his range here, betting because he thinks he has the best hand. Now the river blanks and he checks. Now, here's the thing, there are exactly 3 hands that he can hold with a 7 in them, A7 of spades, 87 of spades, 76 of spades while I think there are a lot of other decent made hands he can hold here. 22 actually, 6 88, 6 99, 6 1010, J10 of diamonds, JQ of diamonds, JK of diamonds, AJ of diamonds. Lets discount that because a lot of the time he will check the turn with those hands, so lets call it 15. Therefore, if he calls more than 1/5 of the time when he's holding those hands its a good bet fore me. I certainly think Bax is good enough to put me on a busted draw and try to snap me off often enough to make the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but would he keep betting on the turn with AJ/KJ/QJ diamonds? I suppose so, but checking seems likely too since he’ll lose less to a 7 and make more from mid-pairs, and won’t be scared of diamonds hitting. By contrast, I think he bets the turn with A7/87/76 100% of the time. I also think he bets TT-88 but I doubt he pays off with those.

So if you ARE CALLED,
18 ways 88-TT are dealt, but maybe you’re called ~20% of the time if you bet

4 ways Jx diamonds are dealt, but maybe they don’t play it that way 50% of the time, and maybe they don’t call the river

4 ways 7x is dealt, and 100% it plays this way
And while its unlikely, maybe he bluff-raises you 5% of the time – its always possible you have a tell, for example, or possible his 76 wants to move you off of a potential 87 or A7.

I dunno, the math seems close but on balance checking might be better. But it could be cause I know the results….

-g

MLG
11-15-2005, 06:22 PM
When I called on the turn Bax thought I wasn't drawing as he thought that it was too big a bet for me to call with just a draw given that the board was paired. He' probably right, as I'm most likely only calling with combo hands like 89 of diamonds. On the river he actually thought after the hand that he made a bad call since its really really hard for me to have a worse 7 there. I thought i was making a thing value bet, turns out I was making an inspired bluff that almost worked.

Exitonly
11-15-2005, 06:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
On the river he actually thought after the hand that he made a bad call since its really really hard for me to have a worse 7 there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt he think you'd have been more aggressive w/ a better 7? I dont think there are all too many hands you play this way that beat his 67. So i dont see what he's talking about.

MLG
11-15-2005, 06:38 PM
I would have played 87/97/107 and maybe 55 exactly the same way. Bigger 7s I probably but not definitely raise somewhere along the way. I'm not betting any non 7 made hands on the river so besides 74s (which is a pretty unlikely hand for me to play even in this kind of pot) what hand does he beat if I'm not bluffing a missed draw.

archangel
11-15-2005, 06:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river he actually thought after the hand that he made a bad call since its really really hard for me to have a worse 7 there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt he think you'd have been more aggressive w/ a better 7? I dont think there are all too many hands you play this way that beat his 67. So i dont see what he's talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how much more aggressively a better 7 would have played the hand, especially at the river. A better 7 would have had to know Bax had a weaker 7 exactly (rather than a non-7 losing hand) in order to have bet more w/o fear of Bax folding a losing hand.

CardSharpCook
11-15-2005, 07:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I thought i was making a thin value bet, turns out I was making an inspired bluff that almost worked.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, I've been in this situation before. "you got the str8?" Um....No.... "[censored], my trips are no good. Nice hand."

So how do you feel about the VB now? I still think the reasoning is sound, and I bet it too.