Flopped Set, how to protect in MP

[Ryan11]

I always question the best way to protect your hand in situations like these. If you bet out no one is folding even overcards let alone gutshots and flush draws. I hate checking and seeing it checked around. How does everyone handle these situations?

Also I assume this type of thing comes up time and time again so if you can direct me to previous good discussions that would be great as well.


Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero?

EDIT: Fixed the flop

[NobodysFreak]

I don't see a set...

[Ryan11]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see a set...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry fixed the flop

Simply bet for value. You still have an equity edge. Push it and Pray.

[DCWildcat]

This is a supereasy bet. Screw protection, you've got a good freakin hand. Get $ from it. Small pot. If everyone will call, bet and raise for value. You're far ahead. Don't even think of checking this if people will call.

Protection should be the last thing on your mind; building the pot should be the first thing.

[sean c]

Bets. Sets are strong even though there are alot of draws out. Just play it fast.

[NobodysFreak]

You have to bet here. If it gets checked around, you're begging for any straight for flush draw to hit on the turn. I bet here and hope to have it raised behind by something like TPGK or two-pair. You need to bet here to get rid of the draws or give them poor odds to chase.

[mvoss]

When you flop a set you're not trying to protect your hand. You're betting and raising for value since you have a huge equity edge. This goes for the example in this thread as well. Against 4 players your edge here is pretty big.

There really isn't anything you can do. Just bet for value. You almost certainly have the best hand and even if someone makes a straight or a flush on the turn, you have plenty of redraws. Flush draws and OESD will not fold on this flop. Moreover, you can't ever be certain anyone has a flush or straight draw.

[jaxUp]

assuming you actually have a set, then there is no need to protect. Bet and raise like crazy You have a strong equity edge. Seriously, if I see one more post about protecting a set on a 2 flush flop I am going to die.

Here's an exercise for anybody who was thinking about "protecting" their set. Find out how much you make (on average) if you manage to get it HU on the flop. Now compare that to how much you make if everyone puts in an average of .75BBs on the flop. Those that make it to the turn puts in an average of 1.75 BBs each on te turn and river combined. I'll post my own analysis later.

edit: include any extra thoughts or assumptions you choose to make.

I bet.

[jaxUp]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 folds, BB checks.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero?

If we somehow get it HU with a flop c/r(or flop raise in another situation):

I will assume: villain has a FD 1/3 of the time. so he makes a flush ~1/10 of the time. we will make a boat+ about 25% of the time villain makes flush. The times this happens, we will make an average of 4BB on the turn and river combined. When we lose to the flush (with a just our set) we will lose an average of 3BB

no Matter what, 1BB each goes in on the flop.

When the flush card comes and he as a flush (1/10 of the time):
we make 4BB 25% of the time

we lose 3BB 75% of the time

When the flush card doesn't come, or comes and they don't have it(9/10 times):

we make 1.75 BB (sometimes we get called down, sometimes a turn call and river fold, sometimes we get a bit extra when they hit trips/2-pair.

so when we win:
((9/10)*1.75 + (.25/10)*4) + (9.25/10)*3
just for turn and river already in pot(less your bet)

= 1.575 + .1 + 2.775 = 5.35 BB

and then, when we lose we loser 4BB (1 on flop, 3 later)

5.35BB + (.75/10)*-4BB ~ 5BB

So when we get it HU, we win, on average, 5BB


IF WE DO NOT TRY TO PROTECT OUR HAND:




on flop: on average, 2 players put in .75BBs for a total of 1.5BB going in (from other players)

when flush card comes and somebody has the flush (1/5) of the time): assume that there's a 1/3 chance each person has a FD, so then the chance that somebody had a FD = 1 - .67^2.5 = 63%. So, somebody will make a flush ~1/5 of the time. When this happens, we lose 3BB, and when the flush comes and we fill up, we will win an an average of 2.5BB (on turn and river combined)from each person that saw the turn.

when flush card doesn't come (or comes and nobody has it): Assume that when the flush doesn't come, we make an average of 1.5 BB from each person that saw the turn (I recommended 1.75 in my earlier reply, but I think this is too high).

so when we win:

4/5*1.75BB*2 players + (1/5*1/4*2 players*2.5BB) + (17/20)*3.5
just for turn and river already in pot(less your bet)
= 2.8 + .25 + 3 = 6 BB

so overall, on average we win:

6BB + (1/5*3/4*- 3.75BB) ~ 5.5BB

So when we keep it multiway, we win 5.5BB on average

But this is not what makes the betting and raising so profitable.

Here are some things that I never take into consideration that make it even better to bet and raise on the flop:

1) the chance you can bet/3bet the flop
2) I have assumed VERY decent opponents. If you're against anybody who is fairly aggressive, betting and raising is even better
3) If you are against a larger number of opponents, betting and raising is even more profitable
4) if it has been raised preflop, betting and raising is even more profitable


This post is quite mathy, but te gist of it is, bet the [censored] out of your sets.

I don't know if this is the best way to play it theoretically, but on a flop like this I would bet out. Besides the clubs, it's not a very coordinated and/or scary flop. Your set of fives is good more than 95% here I'm sure.

With how passive micro-limits players are, you have to assume it will be checked around, especially on this flop. I bet out and hope for a high non-club on the turn.

Grunch:

Bet. Dont let the club flush draw get a free card.

....bets.

You've got a strong hand, don't protect it - exploit it.

[Aaron W.]

Don't worry about protecting your sets. Worry about getting rich with them.

this is a grunch, but i'm sure everyone's posting the same response...


bet it. There was no pre-flop raiser, so you can't count on anyone betting. Bet and hope it gets raised. Maybe someone flopped jaxup.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero calls, 1 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 folds, BB checks.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero?

If we somehow get it HU with a flop c/r(or flop raise in another situation):

I will assume: villain has a FD 1/3 of the time. so he makes a flush ~1/10 of the time. we will make a boat+ about 25% of the time villain makes flush. The times this happens, we will make an average of 4BB on the turn and river combined. When we lose to the flush (with a just our set) we will lose an average of 3BB

no Matter what, 1BB each goes in on the flop.

When the flush card comes and he as a flush (1/10 of the time):
we make 4BB 25% of the time

we lose 3BB 75% of the time

When the flush card doesn't come, or comes and they don't have it(9/10 times):

we make 1.75 BB (sometimes we get called down, sometimes a turn call and river fold, sometimes we get a bit extra when they hit trips/2-pair.

so when we win:
((9/10)*1.75 + (.25/10)*4) + (9.25/10)*3
just for turn and river already in pot(less your bet)

= 1.575 + .1 + 2.775 = 5.35 BB

and then, when we lose we loser 4BB (1 on flop, 3 later)

5.35BB + (.75/10)*-4BB ~ 5BB

So when we get it HU, we win, on average, 5BB


IF WE DO NOT TRY TO PROTECT OUR HAND:




on flop: on average, 2 players put in .75BBs for a total of 1.5BB going in (from other players)

when flush card comes and somebody has the flush (1/5) of the time): assume that there's a 1/3 chance each person has a FD, so then the chance that somebody had a FD = 1 - .67^2.5 = 63%. So, somebody will make a flush ~1/5 of the time. When this happens, we lose 3BB, and when the flush comes and we fill up, we will win an an average of 2.5BB (on turn and river combined)from each person that saw the turn.

when flush card doesn't come (or comes and nobody has it): Assume that when the flush doesn't come, we make an average of 1.5 BB from each person that saw the turn (I recommended 1.75 in my earlier reply, but I think this is too high).

so when we win:

4/5*1.75BB*2 players + (1/5*1/4*2 players*2.5BB) + (17/20)*3.5
just for turn and river already in pot(less your bet)
= 2.8 + .25 + 3 = 6 BB

so overall, on average we win:

6BB + (1/5*3/4*- 3.75BB) ~ 5.5BB

So when we keep it multiway, we win 5.5BB on average

But this is not what makes the betting and raising so profitable.

Here are some things that I never take into consideration that make it even better to bet and raise on the flop:

1) the chance you can bet/3bet the flop
2) I have assumed VERY decent opponents. If you're against anybody who is fairly aggressive, betting and raising is even better
3) If you are against a larger number of opponents, betting and raising is even more profitable
4) if it has been raised preflop, betting and raising is even more profitable


This post is quite mathy, but te gist of it is, bet the [censored] out of your sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

very nice work