55: layin down AKo

Level:4 Blinds(50/100)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: ricoman10 ( $1990 )
Seat 5: blownmoney ( $440 )
Seat 10: splyushka ( $2330 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $2790 )
Seat 3: wthorp ( $1425 )
Seat 7: zzzDragonzzz ( $1025 )
Trny:17409878 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ad Ks ]
ricoman10 folds.
blownmoney folds.
zzzDragonzzz folds.
splyushka calls [100].
HERO raises [300].
wthorp is all-In [1325]
splyushka folds.
HERO ???

the villain here has restolen a few pots...but he is putting his whole stack on the line here and i definitely dont need to give my chips away to aa or kings....i dont even need a race here....is this an easy fold????

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
the villain here has restolen a few pots...

[/ QUOTE ]

This part turns it into a call for me. There is too much money in the pot to fold to an underpair in the case that it's a race. Also it makes me think that it's (even more) unlikely that he has exactly AA or KK.

Added on that your stack is still healthy if you lose this, and you can pwn the bubble if you win it, it's a call for me.

[vinyard]

I think its an easy fold and I think it would be very presumptive to assume you are in a race here. The only hand I think you are ahead of that he does this with is AQ and most players won't do that.

[bigt439]

This fold would be balls against almost any villain, let alone the one you described.

Most people have a pretty big range here, and some of those people don't have AA / KK in that range (because they would play it differently). Lots of dead cash in the pot, pretty easy call in general, especially against your villain.

[ZeroPointMachine]

There are more than enough dead chips to justify a call with a race here. Your read that he has restolen several pots makes it hard for me to put him on a range that is tight enough to justify folding. Your holding makes AA/KK less likely than QQ/JJ. Call. Your far from out of it if you lose.

[Karak567]

Easy call IMO.

I expect to see any PP and AQ/AJ here more than not.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call IMO.

I expect to see any PP and AQ/AJ here more than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Seadood228]

I must be missing something.. I couldn't see folding this hand given almost any read, let alone yours.

[Askilus]

[ QUOTE ]
...and you can pwn the bubble if you win it, it's a call for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does pwn stand for?

[Slim Pickens]

There's no way I'm laying down AK getting almost 2:1 on my call.Even if he has KK, you're not that far behind the pot odds. You have to win 35% of the time to make the pot odds work out, and the $EV shouldn't slant it to more than 40% or so...

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.8192 % 28.08% 14.74% { AKo }
Hand 2: 57.1808 % 42.44% 14.74% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

So you're 42% even against a very tight re-stealing range, which it sounds like he doesn't have anyway.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its an easy fold and I think it would be very presumptive to assume you are in a race here. The only hand I think you are ahead of that he does this with is AQ and most players won't do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would it be presumptive to assume you're in a race here? Villain has restolen many pots in the past, do you think this is the 1 time that he's actually got AA or KK? If he does, more power to him, but if not, then I'll take the race situation with the chip stacks and the dead money in the pot.

[ilya]

Folding wouldn't even cross my mind.

i folded because i wasnt getting 2-1 on my money(i dont think)....and i figure i could fold and still have a presence when stealing future blinds...i ended up winning this tourny beating that same guy....ironic..

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
i folded

[/ QUOTE ]

dont ever do that again. You have way too good pot odds to fold, folding is criminal in this spot.
No matter how good you are you wont be able to overcome the profit of calling in this spot.

[tewall]

I misread this when I first read it. I thought the second biggest stack was the one that went all-in. That's a more difficult question.

Here even if you lose, you've got enough chips to likely finish in the money, especially given that you play better than your opponents.

Your tournament equity if you fold is 23%. If you call and win, 34%; call and lose 15%. If you win 45% of the time, you'll break even. From the way you described things, you're probably better than 60% to win here, so calling is +EV by a lot, probably raising your equity to about 27%.

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
i folded because i wasnt getting 2-1 on my money(i dont think)....and i figure i could fold and still have a presence when stealing future blinds...i ended up winning this tourny beating that same guy....ironic..

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need 2-1.

It isn't ironic.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
i folded because i wasnt getting 2-1 on my money(i dont think)....and i figure i could fold and still have a presence when stealing future blinds...i ended up winning this tourny beating that same guy....ironic..

[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold here I seriously question if you're a winner at the $55's. Sorry to pile on the band wagon, but it's just a heads up that you are missing some very fundamental concepts.

[ClockWyze]

If you see me at your 55's - fold this instantly -

I would have sucked out with my AQs anyway.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

the villain here has restolen a few pots...but he is putting his whole stack on the line here and i definitely dont need to give my chips away to aa or kings....i dont even need a race here....is this an easy fold????

[/ QUOTE ]
Fold if you hate money. AK is a big favorite over the range of hands with which I would push in the villain's place, particularly if I have identified you as a weak player, and you are getting great odds to call. I think folding would cost a bit under a half buy-in of equity.

Let me guess: You think AK is "only a drawing hand." You think if you turn out to be a 55-45 underdog, you should regret calling. Neither of these is true.

Do you normally play 55s?

i normally multi table the 55s....my roi and itm defintely puts me in the winning player side....i normally wouldnt think twice about calling here...but i juss took a huge downswing and ive been playing scared poker during certain situations....

[inyaface]

[ QUOTE ]
i normally multi table the 55s....my roi and itm defintely puts me in the winning player side....i normally wouldnt think twice about calling here...but i juss took a huge downswing and ive been playing scared poker during certain situations....

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel that BUT unless you want to make a huge downswing GYNORMOUS then call....every time

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
i normally multi table the 55s....my roi and itm defintely puts me in the winning player side....i normally wouldnt think twice about calling here...but i juss took a huge downswing and ive been playing scared poker during certain situations....

[/ QUOTE ]

You've found the answer.

[tigerite]

But is it like rain on your wedding day, or when there's a thousand spoons and all you need is a knife.. blah blah..

Anyway, unlike the AK the other day, the difference here is if you call and lose, you're not out. Far from it in fact. Plus the fact this guy sounds like a douchebag. I would call this. The situations are very different.

Oh yeah. As well as this, your % to win required this time is 44.6% (quite a lot higher than the pot odds one actually, SP) - but AKo is this high against most PP holdings. His range has to still be TT+, AQ+ but in this case I don't mind to gamble just a little bit more. Plus, his range given your description, is almost certainly higher than this.

[raptor517]

lol, are you joking? folding this is a LEAK, and its not close. holla

[schwza]

AQ is also a turbo call, btw. i'm also calling AJ with the read.

[tigerite]

AQo makes the range he has to be pushing go up quite a bit to 66+ and AT+. AJo goes to 44+,A9o+,A8s+,KQs+. That's getting quite loose.

[Eric Draven]

I can't beleive folding this in a 16 or 27... Can't imagine I would in a 55 either... And you say he's been restealing? Insta-call

[fluorescenthippo]

these pot odds are better looking than keira knightly. call

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
these pot odds are better looking than keira knightly. call

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not saying aaalll that much, though I also call.

btw i've seen her in person.

[z32fanatic]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding wouldn't even cross my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

[caretaker1]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call IMO.

I expect to see any PP and AQ/AJ here more than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

[The Don]

Very easy call... In fact, I would call a resteal from a stack of ANY size in this spot.