(22) AKs hand, near bubble

[mlagoo]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1790)
MP (t1115)
CO (t1205)
Button (t1215)
SB (t1135)
BB (t1540)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t250, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t650) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Hero's line (bearing in mind villain's stack size)?

[valenzuela]

I kinda dislike this position.
a)If you bet and he reraises u will fold.
b)If you check and he bets u will fold.
c)If you push( way too wild, however on MTT I might do this on the bubble)I dont think he is folding enough ..or is he?
d) if you bet and he calls...argh.
I dont see him bluffing if you check it to him.

Anyway I think its either a check or a push, never a small bet.

[durron597]

I would intentionally think for a long time and then check. I want to see if I hit a likely 10 outer if behind, I think I will count myself about ~7 outs and call accordingly on the flop.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would intentionally think for a long time and then check. I want to see if I hit a likely 10 outer if behind, I think I will count myself about ~7 outs and call accordingly on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're check/calling a push?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would intentionally think for a long time and then check. I want to see if I hit a likely 10 outer if behind, I think I will count myself about ~7 outs and call accordingly on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're check/calling a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm check calling about 120 /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[valenzuela]

I exclusevely meditated about the hand since the last time I posted.

My chips are on the middle right away, u need to put pressure on the smaller stack.
You have ten outs if he calls with crap that beats ure draw, nine if he calls with QJ , seven should he call with AJ or KJ.
Of course I didnt mention that he could have 99 or other hand that its better than ours. I think a half brained oponent would fold AT, he might not but 7 outs aint that bad.

[Bill Poker]

[ QUOTE ]
No, I'm check calling about 120 /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

awkward position.

so it is either a push(prolly too agg.) or a check/fold (weak). hmmmmmm/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, I'm check calling about 120 /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

awkward position.

so it is either a push(prolly too agg.) or a check/fold (weak). hmmmmmm/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

this is what i thought too. so, being ever the aggressor, i pushed, and he took FOREVER before calling with AcJc /images/graemlins/confused.gif. Which probably says something for the push.

[Shillx]

You can't lose by pushing preflop here. If you are going to raise preflop, you should just push it IMO. Do you really want to get called in this spot if you raise?

I would sometimes limp here with the intention of reraise or calling a push if it comes. Even if we knew that someone was pushing or raising AQ+/TT+ after we limp in, it would be correct for us to call or move in. The rest of the time I would just push myself to avoid the tough spot that you had to face. If everyone calls with 22+/AK (the worst possible scenario for us) we still make 0.3% of the prize pool.

Brad

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't lose by pushing preflop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think this is one of those situations where it may be +EV to push preflop, but (a lot) more +EV just to make a standard raise. I mean, the 10xBB rule, shaky as it may be, is mantra around 2+2 for a reason, and I've got 18BB here with plenty of 10xBB stacks to act. There's just no reason to push.

[Askilus]

A bit OT, but...

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, the 10xBB rule, shaky as it may be, is mantra around 2+2 for a reason, and I've got 18BB here with plenty of 10xBB stacks to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

I you would like to, I would be very glad if you described this "mantra" to me who hasen't been around here for that long. &lt; 10*BB = Push, &gt; 10 * BB = normal raise?

[Bill Poker]

the effective stack is 12 BB except BB which has 15BB.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't lose by pushing preflop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think this is one of those situations where it may be +EV to push preflop, but (a lot) more +EV just to make a standard raise. I mean, the 10xBB rule, shaky as it may be, is mantra around 2+2 for a reason, and I've got 18BB here with plenty of 10xBB stacks to act. There's just no reason to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mlagoo]

thats the jist (gist?) of it.

the idea is that it doesnt make sense to put in a quarter or more of your stack with a raise and then fold to a reraise, so you may as well push in order to maximize your fold equity (which is, basically, the money you gain because of the chance that your opponent(s) will fold).

it's a loosey goosy rule, and there are times when its fine to push with 15 (or 40)xBB, and times where it might be ok to limp with 8xBB. but it works pretty well as a general rule.

[Shillx]

If you never fold to a push, shoving and raising to T250 are the exact same move with just one key difference. You never get put into the spot that you were in during this hand. You might have 18bb behind, but almost everyone else has either 11-12 bb in their stack.

If you intend to fold to a push then it changes everything, but I can't see that as a viable option in this spot.

Brad

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you never fold to a push, shoving and raising to T250 are the exact same move with just one key difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

i need to get back to studying, but i'm not sure this is the case.

i think that if we shove, hands like AQ-AT (AQ may call anyway) may go away, and those are hands that we definitely want to stick around. I mean, in this case, it didnt work out that one stuck around, but I want AJ calling that raise everytime.

Not to mention the times that AJ-AT, KQ, etc., decide to push over the top. Grrreeeat!

So I think there is bit more of a difference =/

[Askilus]

Oki, I kinda figured that, thanks for confirming it! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Slim Pickens]

I think your read on the opponent is critical here. Any solid player who smooth calls a raise like that for 1/5 of his stack is hiding something. A "typical" 22's opponent will call preflop with a lot of hands, so I'll just continue assuming "normal" opponents. I see a lot of garbage coming along here. The real problem with that flop is that a lot of garbage just hit it, and you didn't really. On the plus side, I don't really see even a typical 22's dufus calling with anything less than TPTK. PP's 99 and below (~=77) are folding to a push immediately, as are any middle and some top pair hands. You're only two decent options are to push here or check-fold, and right now I'm leaning toward a push.

[durron597]

I don't like betting this flop because it almost always hit your opponent unless he has exactly AQ, in which case a lot of the time he will give you a free turn.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like betting this flop because it almost always hit your opponent unless he has exactly AQ, in which case a lot of the time he will give you a free turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

well this is, of course, the other side of it. but geez, check/folding seems so wrong here. i dunno.

edit: not to mention, like slim said, it missed him if he called pf with a medium/low pocket pair (it is a 22, after all).

the only problem is if he called with QJ preflop, he's never folding it here. he might fold AT.

[tewall]

Another rule which leads to similar results is to go all-in if a normal bet would be 40% of your stack. If your raise pre-flop and get called, you'll most likely want to continue with a bet regardless, so with 10XBB this leads to being pot-committed by the flop anyway, so might as well get it in first so you have the fold equity.

This post is an interesting situation because AK dominates many hands that would go over the top of it, so the normal raise is a bit of a baiting tactic.

[tewall]

If you bet 1/2 pot, and he folds more than 1/3 of the time you're gaining (taking regular EV into account), so a half-pot bet seems to be an option. The question is if, given this flop and opponent, would he fold more than 1/3 of the time if bet into? Given the description of this guy, he seems pretty timid, so he's not going over the top with nothing, which makes the small be even more attractive.