5 tables left. sit back and hope to get lucky

I was watching the big saturday tourney on pokerstars last night and i think its safe to say that everyone who made it to the last 5 tables is a decent, solid poker player. However as the blinds were getting bigger people began to push all in with marginal hands trying to steal the blinds. Sometimes they were successful, sometimes not. What angers me most is that the favorite hand seems to loose more often in these later stages. Its almost relieving to see the favorite actually win.
My question to all of you poker pros is can you actually see and identify skillful players in these later stages. Or does everyone become equal and its up to "luck" to sort things out in whatever stochastic fashion.
What are the new hand requirements at these stages of play, assuming you have a little bellow average stack?

[jcm4ccc]

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What angers me most is that the favorite hand seems to loose more often in these later stages

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It's amazing, isn't it, how the odds change as the blinds go up? For instance, AJo vs. KQs. In the early stages of a tournament, AJo is a 55-45 favorite. By the time you get to the bubble, it's a 50-50 proposition. And at the final table, KQs is actually a 53 - 47 favorite. Most people don't realize this. It has to do with the logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases.

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My question to all of you poker pros is can you actually see and identify skillful players in these later stages. Or does everyone become equal and its up to "luck" to sort things out in whatever stochastic fashion.

[/ QUOTE ] It's not totally up to luck. It's the size of your stack once you are past the bubble. Paradoxically, once you get to this stage, a short stack is more favored to win than a big stack, because of the ease of making decisions in the red zone.

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What angers me most is that the favorite hand seems to loose more often in these later stages

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It's amazing, isn't it, how the odds change as the blinds go up? For instance, AJo vs. KQs. In the early stages of a tournament, AJo is a 55-45 favorite. By the time you get to the bubble, it's a 50-50 proposition. And at the final table, KQs is actually a 53 - 47 favorite. Most people don't realize this. It has to do with the logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases.

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My question to all of you poker pros is can you actually see and identify skillful players in these later stages. Or does everyone become equal and its up to "luck" to sort things out in whatever stochastic fashion.

[/ QUOTE ] It's not totally up to luck. It's the size of your stack once you are past the bubble. Paradoxically, once you get to this stage, a short stack is more favored to win than a big stack, because of the ease of making decisions in the red zone.

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Ha.

No there is definitely skill involved in the FT. Although i've never been to one, I have had a few 2nd tables with 2k+ fields and I do know that it isnt all dumb luck.

Im not suggesting in any way that its all dumb luck, and if you make it even close to the final table then you are certainly a solid player. However, towards the very end luck doe play a big role.

[wiggs73]

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What angers me most is that the favorite hand seems to loose more often in these later stages

[/ QUOTE ]
It's amazing, isn't it, how the odds change as the blinds go up? For instance, AJo vs. KQs. In the early stages of a tournament, AJo is a 55-45 favorite. By the time you get to the bubble, it's a 50-50 proposition. And at the final table, KQs is actually a 53 - 47 favorite. Most people don't realize this. It has to do with the logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases.

[ QUOTE ]
My question to all of you poker pros is can you actually see and identify skillful players in these later stages. Or does everyone become equal and its up to "luck" to sort things out in whatever stochastic fashion.

[/ QUOTE ] It's not totally up to luck. It's the size of your stack once you are past the bubble. Paradoxically, once you get to this stage, a short stack is more favored to win than a big stack, because of the ease of making decisions in the red zone.

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potd. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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What angers me most is that the favorite hand seems to loose more often in these later stages

[/ QUOTE ]
It's amazing, isn't it, how the odds change as the blinds go up? For instance, AJo vs. KQs. In the early stages of a tournament, AJo is a 55-45 favorite. By the time you get to the bubble, it's a 50-50 proposition. And at the final table, KQs is actually a 53 - 47 favorite. Most people don't realize this. It has to do with the logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases.

[ QUOTE ]
My question to all of you poker pros is can you actually see and identify skillful players in these later stages. Or does everyone become equal and its up to "luck" to sort things out in whatever stochastic fashion.

[/ QUOTE ] It's not totally up to luck. It's the size of your stack once you are past the bubble. Paradoxically, once you get to this stage, a short stack is more favored to win than a big stack, because of the ease of making decisions in the red zone.

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Can you tell me where I can read more on this "logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases."

[wiggs73]

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What angers me most is that the favorite hand seems to loose more often in these later stages

[/ QUOTE ]
It's amazing, isn't it, how the odds change as the blinds go up? For instance, AJo vs. KQs. In the early stages of a tournament, AJo is a 55-45 favorite. By the time you get to the bubble, it's a 50-50 proposition. And at the final table, KQs is actually a 53 - 47 favorite. Most people don't realize this. It has to do with the logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases.

[ QUOTE ]
My question to all of you poker pros is can you actually see and identify skillful players in these later stages. Or does everyone become equal and its up to "luck" to sort things out in whatever stochastic fashion.

[/ QUOTE ] It's not totally up to luck. It's the size of your stack once you are past the bubble. Paradoxically, once you get to this stage, a short stack is more favored to win than a big stack, because of the ease of making decisions in the red zone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you tell me where I can read more on this "logarithmic progression of odds as the ratio of the blinds to the total chips decreases."

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followed by the unintentionally funny potd. solid work guys.

RushnRocket, the odds don't change as stack sizes do. Odds are odds. Strategy does change as the tournament progresses, but being able to properly adapt to what the optimal strategy is is a skill itself. You're correct in saying that pushing to steal blinds is a big part of late game play if you're a short-to-medium stack. However, this does not leave the outcome solely up to luck. Pushing to steal blinds is an art form that you can read more about on the STT forum.

[nath]

Stack size is crucial; this is a big reason many players like to build big stacks earlier so they can survive all-in confrontations.
But yes, late-tournament strategy especially online is far different than what most people think of as poker. It's not "unskilled", but it is a different skill set.

[nath]

Oh, to answer your question:

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What are the new hand requirements at these stages of play, assuming you have a little bellow average stack?

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Any two cards in the right spots. If I feel it's going to be an all-in showdown, I lean towards aces, high cards, and pairs.
Your cards don't matter nearly as much as the situation at the table. They are but one component of a tournament.

[tdarko]

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If I feel it's going to be an all-in showdown, I lean towards aces

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what's your stars screename so i can stay away?

Late in tournaments it's all about coin-flips and winning them.

Before Johnny Chan got uber-cocky and to good to talk to the average poker player...

He admitted that the only way he won his 2nd bracelet is by getting all his money in with coinflips and won 11 in a row on the final day-and-a-half of the tournament.

Had nothing to do with great play or manuevering...

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potd. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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Sorry whats "potd"???

post of the day

[TwistedEcho]

if you play like me, you press the fold button LOTS and then hit the allin when u get good cards and hope it hits (or sucks out!). Seems to work out ok /images/graemlins/smile.gif