Posting in the CO with KQs [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 03:40 PM

UTG here is a 20.7/9.9/3.17 over 120 hands. Button is 30/15/1.67 after 20. BB was 42/7 after 14.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero (poster) 3-bets, Button caps, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, BB folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (14.16 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG calls $2 (All-In), Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

jba

11-14-2005, 03:45 PM

Yeah I think it's how I'd play it.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 03:49 PM

You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

Kimpan

11-14-2005, 03:51 PM

yeah I play it the same I think.. although a fold on flop wouldn't be terrible.. would it?

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah I play it the same I think.. although a fold on flop wouldn't be terrible.. would it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would be worse than terrible.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 03:53 PM

Your CO post in a 6-max game was worse than terrible, so a flop fold is only par for the course. I don't complete the bet on the turn, and I don't bet the river.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your CO post in a 6-max game was worse than terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 03:55 PM

You apparently have little concept of the number of free hands you're paying for if you continue to think so.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You apparently have little concept of the number of free hands you're paying for if you continue to think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please look in PT and tell me what is the average BB/hand lost from the BB. Then tell me what the average BB/hand won in MP and UTG is. Then do some math, and remember that the amount you will lose posting in the CO is less than the amount you lose posting in the BB.

jba

11-14-2005, 03:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

istewart

11-14-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you don't need 18 combos that will call a river bet if you intend on seeing a showdown.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You apparently have little concept of the number of free hands you're paying for if you continue to think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please look in PT and tell me what is the average BB/hand lost from the BB. Then tell me what the average BB/hand won in MP and UTG is. Then do some math, and remember that the amount you will lose posting in the CO is less than the amount you lose posting in the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The average amount of money lost in the BB accounts for the posting every 6 hands, while your number in the CO only accounts for the rare times that you do post in the CO when entering a game. Your numbers are wrong. If you're talking about kiddo's post and you're following in the same vein, you misunderstand the BB numbers that pokertracker is showing you. Along with the intangibles of you not getting the button, by far the most moneymaking position to be in, this is easy.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, many of the times those hands raise the turn, so the fact that they didn't lowers the 17 combos number. Second of all, given that they didn't raise the turn, they probably arn't raising the river. Also, if I check, these hands will most likely bet anyway, so when they are holding these hands, betting and checking are virtually identical.

As for hands that I beat? AK, JJ, maybe AJ. These don't always call, but they do sometimes.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You apparently have little concept of the number of free hands you're paying for if you continue to think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please look in PT and tell me what is the average BB/hand lost from the BB. Then tell me what the average BB/hand won in MP and UTG is. Then do some math, and remember that the amount you will lose posting in the CO is less than the amount you lose posting in the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The average amount of money lost in the BB accounts for the posting every 6 hands, while your number in the CO only accounts for the rare times that you do post in the CO when entering a game. Your numbers are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't give any numbers, so how can they be wrong? You don't even have to add value to the EV of of the CO vs button for that number to be less than the amount gained from MP and UTG.

jba

11-14-2005, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you don't need 18 combos that will call a river bet if you intend on seeing a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am definitely aware of concept, but it is definitely not applicable in this situation. villain isn't checking behind with those 17 combos very often and villain has practically zero fold equity so the chance of him betting a worse hand is miniscule. So, we have to find the worse hands.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you don't need 18 combos that will call a river bet if you intend on seeing a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am definitely aware of concept, but it is definitely not applicable in this situation. villain isn't checking behind with those 17 combos very often and villain has practically zero fold equity so the chance of him betting a worse hand is miniscule. So, we have to find the worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

We need at least 1 worse hand, but we definetly need anywhere close to 18 combos. You arn't folding the river, and as I said earlier, these hands are almost always betting if checked to, yet not raising us. So a bet is virtually the same as a check vs these hands.

istewart

11-14-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you don't need 18 combos that will call a river bet if you intend on seeing a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am definitely aware of concept, but it is definitely not applicable in this situation. villain isn't checking behind with those 17 combos very often and villain has practically zero fold equity so the chance of him betting a worse hand is miniscule. So, we have to find the worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you saying the best play is to check/fold? (I'm not disagreeing with you here, I haven't really put a lot of thought into this hand.)

jba

11-14-2005, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't like betting the river? I think I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA (6), KK(3), AQ (8)

so there's are 17 combos in button's range that are beating you, can you come up with 18 that you are beating that will call a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, many of the times those hands raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

[ QUOTE ]

As for hands that I beat? AK, JJ, maybe AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with only JJ. I certainly can't see AJ and AK seems very very unlikely.

FYI, I also think he can raise the river with AA/KK here. I could certainly find a raise/fold to 3bet with AA on this board against some players that are overaggro on the big streets.

jba

11-14-2005, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So are you saying the best play is to check/fold? (I'm not disagreeing with you here, I haven't really put a lot of thought into this hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

nah check/call, getting 17.5-1 is enough to snap off a busted flush draw trying to win the lottery

istewart

11-14-2005, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So are you saying the best play is to check/fold? (I'm not disagreeing with you here, I haven't really put a lot of thought into this hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

nah check/call, getting 17.5-1 is enough to snap off a busted flush draw trying to win the lottery

[/ QUOTE ]

That'd be a pretty big bluff considering UTG is all-in /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FYI, I also think he can raise the river with AA/KK here. I could certainly find a raise/fold to 3bet with AA on this board against some players that are overaggro on the big streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think quite often if AA or KK just calls the turn, he is not raising the river. I do think it might happen occasionally, but not all that often.

mtdoak

11-14-2005, 04:38 PM

So, what exactly is worse than terrible.

11-14-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your CO post in a 6-max game was worse than terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Posting is -EV in 6-max, but valuable if you think any of your opponents are observant. I personally drop a note when I see somebody post behind the button in 6-max, and then I tend to characterize them as looser/action-oriented. Done by a TAG, this could be misleading information to a player like me.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 04:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You apparently have little concept of the number of free hands you're paying for if you continue to think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please look in PT and tell me what is the average BB/hand lost from the BB. Then tell me what the average BB/hand won in MP and UTG is. Then do some math, and remember that the amount you will lose posting in the CO is less than the amount you lose posting in the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The average amount of money lost in the BB accounts for the posting every 6 hands, while your number in the CO only accounts for the rare times that you do post in the CO when entering a game. Your numbers are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't give any numbers, so how can they be wrong? You don't even have to add value to the EV of of the CO vs button for that number to be less than the amount gained from MP and UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm using the numbers from this thread so you'll have numbers to disagree/agree with. Hopefully this will clarify things and you won't continue this.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID= (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=headsup&Number=2884131&fp art=&PHPSESSID=)

Ok, we post in the CO. We pay .5BB. Our EV in the CO is .09BB/hand. We get the CO, MP, and UTG. Making that round (of 3 hands) worth .09 + .09 + .08 - .5 (posting cost). At a rate of (.13)BB.

Ok, so we post in the BB. The posting cost is included in these numbers. (.14) in the BB, (.07) in the SB, then on the button we make .11, and then .09, .09, .08. Making us a whopping .16BB in every revolution. Is this clear enough? If you like, you can perhaps add a bit to your CO EV if you continue to post in the CO when you enter a game, but I don't have any way to quantify that.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I'm using the numbers from this thread so you'll have numbers to disagree/agree with. Hopefully this will clarify things and you won't continue this.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID= (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=headsup&Number=2884131&fp art=&PHPSESSID=)

Ok, we post in the CO. We pay .5BB. Our EV in the CO is .09BB/hand. We get the CO, MP, and UTG. Making that round (of 3 hands) worth .09 + .09 + .08 - .5 (posting cost). At a rate of (.13)BB.

Ok, so we post in the BB. The posting cost is included in these numbers. (.14) in the BB, (.07) in the SB, then on the button we make .11, and then .09, .09, .08. Making us a whopping .16BB in every revolution. Is this clear enough? If you like, you can perhaps add a bit to your CO EV if you continue to post in the CO when you enter a game, but I don't have any way to quantify that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a big flaw in your method is that you assume your win rate in the CO stays the same regardless of the fact that you posted. Since you posted, your winrate will be significantly higher in the CO because there will be more EV+ hands to play (ignoring the .5 BB loss, because you included that in your equation sepearte from winrate of the CO).

I think a better method is to think about what you would rather have in a single hand. If you had to choose between playing one hand from the BB, or one handed from the CO (while posting), I think it is obvious to choose the CO. That means that the winrate posting in the CO is higher than the winrate from the BB. Since the winrate from the BB is (.14), the equation should be (.14) + .09 + .08 = .03 BB. Add on to the fact that posting in the CO is slightly higher EV than (.14), and it is even clearer that we have value.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, what exactly is worse than terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the flop...

Catt

11-14-2005, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think a big flaw in your method is that you assume your win rate in the CO stays the same regardless of the fact that you posted. Since you posted, your winrate will be significantly higher in the CO because there will be more EV+ hands to play (ignoring the .5 BB loss, because you included that in your equation sepearte from winrate of the CO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[ QUOTE ]
I think a better method is to think about what you would rather have in a single hand. If you had to choose between playing one hand from the BB, or one handed from the CO (while posting), I think it is obvious to choose the CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

So posting UTG is good, too?

brazilio

11-14-2005, 05:18 PM

So you're missing more than .1BB/revolution instead, and you're using significant intangibles that can in no way add up to making up the difference. I have no idea why you continue this argument, it's obviously flawed and significantly -EV even if I do subscribe to your own last post.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a big flaw in your method is that you assume your win rate in the CO stays the same regardless of the fact that you posted. Since you posted, your winrate will be significantly higher in the CO because there will be more EV+ hands to play (ignoring the .5 BB loss, because you included that in your equation sepearte from winrate of the CO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[ QUOTE ]
I think a better method is to think about what you would rather have in a single hand. If you had to choose between playing one hand from the BB, or one handed from the CO (while posting), I think it is obvious to choose the CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

So posting UTG is good, too?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I was using this to show why Brazilio's use of .09 (win rate in CO) - .5 (cost of posting) was a bad estimator of the EV/hand of posting in the CO. My point was that the value of posting in the CO for 1 hand, and only one hand is around -.14 BB, but slightly closer to 0. You make up for this -EV by your hands in MP and UTG. Thus, posting in UTG would not be good, because you have no hands to offset your -EV play of posting for that one hand.

pudley4

11-14-2005, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You apparently have little concept of the number of free hands you're paying for if you continue to think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please look in PT and tell me what is the average BB/hand lost from the BB. Then tell me what the average BB/hand won in MP and UTG is. Then do some math, and remember that the amount you will lose posting in the CO is less than the amount you lose posting in the BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

The average amount of money lost in the BB accounts for the posting every 6 hands, while your number in the CO only accounts for the rare times that you do post in the CO when entering a game. Your numbers are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't give any numbers, so how can they be wrong? You don't even have to add value to the EV of of the CO vs button for that number to be less than the amount gained from MP and UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm using the numbers from this thread so you'll have numbers to disagree/agree with. Hopefully this will clarify things and you won't continue this.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID= (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=headsup&Number=2884131&fp art=&PHPSESSID=)

Ok, we post in the CO. We pay .5BB. Our EV in the CO is .09BB/hand. We get the CO, MP, and UTG. Making that round (of 3 hands) worth .09 + .09 + .08 - .5 (posting cost). At a rate of (.13)BB.

Ok, so we post in the BB. The posting cost is included in these numbers. (.14) in the BB, (.07) in the SB, then on the button we make .11, and then .09, .09, .08. Making us a whopping .16BB in every revolution. Is this clear enough? If you like, you can perhaps add a bit to your CO EV if you continue to post in the CO when you enter a game, but I don't have any way to quantify that.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I don't agree with the Spicy one that posting in the CO is correct, your calculation is incorrect. You can't take the -.5BB it costs to post and then add in your normal .09BB winrate to come up with a value for posting in the CO. What you should do is take your normal BB winrate (-.14BB) and then increase it by some amount, due both to your better position in the hand, and the fact that if it's folded to you, you can raise and steal the blinds (an option that really isn't available to you when in the BB). I'm not sure what those adjustments are, but it wouldn't surprise me if you got an extra .05 BB due to these factors.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a big flaw in your method is that you assume your win rate in the CO stays the same regardless of the fact that you posted. Since you posted, your winrate will be significantly higher in the CO because there will be more EV+ hands to play (ignoring the .5 BB loss, because you included that in your equation sepearte from winrate of the CO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[ QUOTE ]
I think a better method is to think about what you would rather have in a single hand. If you had to choose between playing one hand from the BB, or one handed from the CO (while posting), I think it is obvious to choose the CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

So posting UTG is good, too?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I was using this to show why Brazilio's use of .09 (win rate in CO) - .5 (cost of posting) was a bad estimator of the EV/hand of posting in the CO. My point was that the value of posting in the CO for 1 hand, and only one hand is around -.14 BB, but slightly closer to 0. You make up for this -EV by your hands in MP and UTG. Thus, posting in UTG would not be good, because you have no hands to offset your -EV play of posting for that one hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'll say this once so you'll stop using it as an argument. YOU GET TO PLAY IN MP AND UTG BOTH WHEN YOU POST IN THE CO AND POST IN THE BB.

jba

11-14-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'll say this once so you'll stop using it as an argument. YOU GET TO PLAY IN MP AND UTG BOTH WHEN YOU POST IN THE CO AND POST IN THE BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this whole line of argument is kind of silly, but I can't resist.

WTF are you talking about here? How do you get to play in the MP and UTG if you wait to post in the BB?

Catt

11-14-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No. I was using this to show why Brazilio's use of .09 (win rate in CO) - .5 (cost of posting) was a bad estimator of the EV/hand of posting in the CO. My point was that the value of posting in the CO for 1 hand, and only one hand is around -.14 BB, but slightly closer to 0. You make up for this -EV by your hands in MP and UTG. Thus, posting in UTG would not be good, because you have no hands to offset your -EV play of posting for that one hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I have trouble making the logical leap that, since we expect our long-term winrate to be somewhere around (0.14) in the BB that the long-term winrate must be better in the CO when posting. The dynamics of play (pre- and post-) are quite different even though in the CO we are more likely to have position post-flop.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So you're missing more than .1BB/revolution instead, and you're using significant intangibles that can in no way add up to making up the difference. I have no idea why you continue this argument, it's obviously flawed and significantly -EV even if I do subscribe to your own last post.

[/ QUOTE ]

What intangibles am I using? I will take out the fact that posting in the CO is worth more for that one specific hand than posting in the button. That said, posting in the CO for one hand is worth no less then -.14 BB. Thus, playing the CO for -.14 BB, and then getting your two hands in MP and UTG make those 3 hands together EV+.

I am not missing more than .1 BB/ revolution, as I would have had to wait for the BB anyway, and those 3 hands I sit out I am making 0 BB, rather than somewhere around (-.14 + .09 + .08=.03) BB.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 05:27 PM

While I think that you're correct, I don't think that can add up to .05BB. The difference between UTG and the Button is only .04BB, and on both mine and most others I've seen there's a large jump between the CO and button. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID= (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=headsup&Number=2884131&fp art=&PHPSESSID=)
are just numbers I used for him to see. But even if we double this number, we're still making less money for an orbit.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 05:28 PM

He's saying that posting in the CO is somehow made up for by playing in MP and UTG. I'm saying that when he posts in the BB/SB, he gets to make it up by playing on the Button, the CO, MP, and UTG.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's saying that posting in the CO is somehow made up for by playing in MP and UTG. I'm saying that when he posts in the BB/SB, he gets to make it up by playing on the Button, the CO, MP, and UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh!!!!! jba's argument about if I don't get to play MP and UTG (someone busts out, someone leaves the game) is the only argument against me posting in the CO.

Of course you get to make up your blind from the BB by getting to play the Button, the CO, MP, and UTG. I am not refuting that it is EV+ to post in the BB!

All I am saying, is that if you were to only play a posted CO, MP, and UTG, you would have an EV>0.

Lets put it this way. You just sat down, and have the option to post in the CO. Lets say you don't. You wait 3 hands until you have the BB, and then play exactly 1 orbit. We all agree that if you are a winning player, playing one orbit, from BB-UTG is some EV+ number that I will call X. Although we only played 6 hands to get X, we really have wasted 9 hands to get it, as for 3 of the hands we were choosing the 0 EV option of sitting out.

Now, lets assume we decide to post in the CO. We now get -.14 + .09 + .08 = .03 BB from the first 3 hands. Then we also get X from the next 6 hands. We have the same 9 hands, but this time we get an EV = X + .03>X. Therefore, posting in the CO is more EV than waiting for your BB, assuming that you will get to play MP and UTG (We can have a completely seperate discussion on what happens the times you don't get to play those two hands).

Drontier

11-14-2005, 05:43 PM

Both button and bbs stats are very insignificant, because they aren't over 20 hands. But given those stats, I see no reason to complete the bet on the turn. I think that is horrible. I also see no reason to bet the river. If UTG was not close to all in, this is a pretty clear fold the flop right? Since we can't tell the mindset of Button(who from his few hands seems solid), I would just call the turn bet and fold if he completed it. (thats if I didn't fold the flop) Actually given the action again, I think even though UTG is close to all-in, buttons 3 bet behind still warrants a fold on the flop. Posting that Button checked the river is going to skew the responses.

sammy_g

11-14-2005, 05:44 PM

But you have to wait to play. You're missing the key point: Opportunity cost!

You can...

* Wait for the BB and have what you bought in for, or

* Post immediately, make up that amount and a little more in MP and UTG, and have more than you bought in for on average when the BB comes around.

Which do you chose?

Posting might hurt your BB/100, but you get to play a few more hands in the session and have a little more money on average. And I like money.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I guess I have trouble making the logical leap that, since we expect our long-term winrate to be somewhere around (0.14) in the BB that the long-term winrate must be better in the CO when posting. The dynamics of play (pre- and post-) are quite different even though in the CO we are more likely to have position post-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that it would be very hard to try to figure out your actual EV from the single hand of posting in the CO. I think if you just look at it logically though, it must have an EV at least as high (-.14 BB) as posting in the BB. This is because you have all the disadvantages of the BB (one disadvantage, forcing .5 BB in front of you), yet you have some advantages that BB doesn't have (position, better stealing abilities). There is no reason why the single hand of posting in the CO should be worse then the single hand of posting in the BB.

ghostface

11-14-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's saying that posting in the CO is somehow made up for by playing in MP and UTG. I'm saying that when he posts in the BB/SB, he gets to make it up by playing on the Button, the CO, MP, and UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh!!!!! jba's argument about if I don't get to play MP and UTG (someone busts out, someone leaves the game) is the only argument against me posting in the CO.

Of course you get to make up your blind from the BB by getting to play the Button, the CO, MP, and UTG. I am not refuting that it is EV+ to post in the BB!

All I am saying, is that if you were to only play a posted CO, MP, and UTG, you would have an EV>0.

Lets put it this way. You just sat down, and have the option to post in the CO. Lets say you don't. You wait 3 hands until you have the BB, and then play exactly 1 orbit. We all agree that if you are a winning player, playing one orbit, from BB-UTG is some EV+ number that I will call X. Although we only played 6 hands to get X, we really have wasted 9 hands to get it, as for 3 of the hands we were choosing the 0 EV option of sitting out.

Now, lets assume we decide to post in the CO. We now get -.14 + .09 + .08 = .03 BB from the first 3 hands. Then we also get X from the next 6 hands. We have the same 9 hands, but this time we get an EV = X + .03>X. Therefore, posting in the CO is more EV than waiting for your BB, assuming that you will get to play MP and UTG (We can have a completely seperate discussion on what happens the times you don't get to play those two hands).

[/ QUOTE ]

So what hands do we play then. A shitload more than in the BB?

RunDownHouse

11-14-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Both button and bbs stats are very insignificant, because they aren't over 20 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
I try to completely ignore stats when they are over so few hands. However, I can't help but be biased and think the OP includes them in an attempt to justify poor play (not only here, but in any post). I mean, we all know stats over 14 hands are useless unless they are of the 100/100 or 0/0 variety (and questionable even then), so why would anyone include them at all?

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Both button and bbs stats are very insignificant, because they aren't over 20 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
I try to completely ignore stats when they are over so few hands. However, I can't help but be biased and think the OP includes them in an attempt to justify poor play (not only here, but in any post). I mean, we all know stats over 14 hands are useless unless they are of the 100/100 or 0/0 variety (and questionable even then), so why would anyone include them at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not using my the stats to justify anything. I include them because it was information I was presented with, and thought you might want to have them. Whether or not they change any hand ranges is up to the perspective of whoever is analyzing the hand. I agree that stats for under 20 hands are usually meaningless, but it doesn't hurt to include them.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But you have to wait to play. You're missing the key point: Opportunity cost!

You can...

* Wait for the BB and have what you bought in for, or

* Post immediately, make up that amount and a little more in MP and UTG, and have more than you bought in for on average when the BB comes around.

Which do you chose?

Posting might hurt your BB/100, but you get to play a few more hands in the session and have a little more money on average. And I like money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering I 6-table 6-max and am probably going to move to 8-tabling it relatively quickly, I think this argument is flawed. The EV of doing anything but pressing the button to wait until the BB and the checkbox to autopost blinds far outweighs whatever miniscule BB/revolution I would ever get in a 6-max game that I have to:

1. Check to make sure it is in fact 6-max, because our already -EV move becomes far more -EV the fewer players in the game.

2. Confirm that I am in fact either coming into the game on the Button/SB/BB where I can post in the CO.

I'm sure I would make far more errors at the other tables because of the added concentration required than I ever would make up for with .03BB.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Considering I 6-table 6-max and am probably going to move to 8-tabling it relatively quickly, I think this argument is flawed. The EV of doing anything but pressing the button to wait until the BB and the checkbox to autopost blinds far outweighs whatever miniscule BB/revolution I would ever get in a 6-max game that I have to:

1. Check to make sure it is in fact 6-max, because our already -EV move becomes far more -EV the fewer players in the game.

2. Confirm that I am in fact either coming into the game on the Button/SB/BB where I can post in the CO.

I'm sure I would make far more errors at the other tables because of the added concentration required than I ever would make up for with .03BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, at least it seems like this is an admission of defeat on your original point. Can we safely say that you agree that if you play the hands as you normally would, posting in the CO is EV+?

As to your points on multitabling and effort in checking various things... yes it is effort to make sure the circumstances or correct for posting in the CO, but oh well, poker is effort. If you choose to pass up the .03 BB for posting in the CO, that is fine, and you arn't losing much, but please don't say it isn't EV+ to do post there.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So what hands do we play then. A shitload more than in the BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

The hands that you play depends on how your opponents are playing. I would guess it ends up being more than in the BB, as you will be raising at least as many hands as you normally do when everyone folds to you on the CO, plus a few more. Furthermore, often enough you will check your crap, and get a free flop. If you check your CO, and it is raised behind you, you would call with at least as many hands from a button steal.

brazilio

11-14-2005, 06:05 PM

If you're posting in the CO in a full 6-max game, I guess it's neutral or slightly profitable, yes.

Spicymoose

11-14-2005, 06:28 PM

The first time I posted this, I posted my own response to it, which was a pretty indepth analysis of what I thought I should be doing. I got no responses. Now that we have been talking about it for a while, it seems like quite a few people disagree with how I should be playing the flop, turn, and even river. Noone has discussed it, but folding preflop might also be correct.

After a slight hijacking of this thread about the merits of posting in the CO, I think it is time to return to the bulk of this hand. Here is my analysis of why I think it is correct to raise the flop, stay in when the flop is capped (even if UTG weren't all in), and possibly bet the turn and river.

I have edited a bit to change hand ranges. The fact that UTG is all in changes his hand range a bit (basically adding in that he might cap with AK changes equity quite a bit). Nevertheless, although the ranges and equity changes slightly, the analyses stays the same.

Here is my original response to my own thread...

I should probably fold preflop, as he is really tight, and he is UTG. If he raises 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs+, AJo+, KQo+, which is around 9.2% of his hands, I have about 41% equity. If we get a third caller, who has a similar range, we now have 25%.

But, given that I posted, playing was cheaper than usual, and I figured if I was playing, I should raise and try to limit the field.

When the flop comes, if Buttons preflop capping range is 99+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo, and BBs calling range is 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KJo+, I have 27% equity. Maybe I should try StellarWinds aproach of limp/reraising Buttons sure fire raise? If BB stays in, I have more than my share with 27%. But on the other hand, maybe I should raise, and hope Button 3-bets to knock out BB and raise my equity to around 35%. Since the pot is big, maybe protecting the hand with a raise stays the best approach.

When UTG caps the flop, I put him on QQ+, TT, 88, AQs+, AhJh, KJs+, AQo+, KJo+, and button on TT+, AhKh, AQs, AhJh, KJs+, AQo+, KQo. This means I have around 16% equity, so I should call getting 13:1 from the pot.

On the turn, I have 17% equity. Basically that means about 8 outs, which seems reasonable, since looking at the board you would count 5 outs. You would discount some of the K outs probably because 2 pair wont always win, but you also have to significantly add in the fact that sometimes you are currently in the lead. So with my 17% equity, I own basically 2.4 BB of the main pot.

But, I suddenly realize that UTG was all in, and so now I have to think about if I am ahead or behind the button. When it is heads up, I only have 43% equity, and given his range I am way ahead of AK, AJ, KJ, JJ way behind AA, KK, QQ, TT, AQ. But some of the hands I am behind would raise UTG anyway, but will only call my turn raise. Also, some of the ones I am ahead of may take a free or cheap river if I check.

On the river I have 20% equity, or 2.8 BB of the main pot owed to me, so this is a sure call at least. Against just button, I have 49% equity, and I think I can get value out of AK, AJ, JJ, and occasionally KJ. KK, AQ, might bet anyways, but won't raise me that often. QQ and TT will, so I will lose 2 BB then, since I am calling a raise, but I don't think this is often enough to take away from all the value I'm getting from his worse hands. So, I think I should bet the river.