Back to back pocket AA

[dachord]

While watching the WSOP tournament on ESPN, I saw Hachem get pocket aces back to back. That raised my curiousity. I got out my calculator and tried to determine the odds of that scenario happening. The only thing that I could determine is that I suck at math. Can anyone show me how to determine the odds?

[Tom1975]

The odds of getting pocket Aces on one given hand is:
(4/52)*(3/51)=1/221. For your first card there 4 Aces and 52 unknown cards and for your second there are 3 Aces left out of 51 unknown. To figure out this happening twice in a row you just multiply 1/221 by itself:
(1/221)*(1/221)=1/48841

[dachord]

Outstanding, thanks.

Hi Dachord-

Looks like your real question has already been answered, but I want to point out it's highly unlikely that the AA hands were really back to back. It's more likely that ESNP edited out some hands in between (they do this anyway.) Are you certain they were consecutive?

i agree that ESPN probably edited (my #1 pet peeve is that they don't tell you how many hands have gone by, i think viewers could glean alot from that).

but in my counter to "online is rigged" (which i don't think is impossible or anything), i saw back to back pocket aces from same player (1 in 40,000+, as you said) in my first three hours of B&M..

[mittman84]

I have had poket aces back to back on the same table twice in my life, and it happned on the same table on partypoker within 30 minutes of eachother. I was 4 tabling at the time, got AA back to back on one table, than 20-30 minutes got AA back to back again on the same table.

[KenProspero]

Tom1975 is correct --

However, it's important to remember, that if I got AA last hand, the odds of me getting AA next hand are still only 220:1

[TennesseeKid]

A couple of years ago playing live 4/8 LHE down in Tunica the following happened at my table:

Guy on my immediate right exclaims," Oh man, I got Aces." and raises. I fold and the action builds. While in the pre-flop betting round,(details irrelevant)he shows me he indeed has pocket aces. I wonder why he is showing me and he ends up taking down the pot.

Next hand I am UTG and fold, action gets around to BB (AA dude) and he says,"Aces again? there is no way" and shows me and he indeed caught aces again. This time I laugh because I was caught off-guard and still was(am) a beginner to the game. My laugh then causes MAJOR action and every street is capped to the end and he takes down a monster pot.

So, although highly unprobable it is certainly possible.

[Buccaneer]

[ QUOTE ]
This time I laugh because I was caught off-guard and still was(am) a beginner to the game. My laugh then causes MAJOR action and every street is capped to the end and he takes down a monster pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope he toked you.

This game is crazy, I got pocket aces, followed by jacks, ten hands later pulled pocket queens, then aces again.
that was 3 days ago, haven't had pocket aces again yet

Cambraceres

[dachord]

I thought that they were consecutive, but you are entirely right, it could have been edited to look as though they were back to back. It made for a good post thought /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MikeSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Dachord-

Looks like your real question has already been answered, but I want to point out it's highly unlikely that the AA hands were really back to back. It's more likely that ESNP edited out some hands in between (they do this anyway.) Are you certain they were consecutive?

[/ QUOTE ]

[KenProspero]

Stuff like this happens.

I'm sure a lot of us have stories like this.

I had pocket aces back to back, once, in an online MTT. The same player, who was calling me down with crap rivered me twice in a row, taking me from table leader (and 10th or 12th in the tourney) to being gone in about a minute and a half.

That's poker, shuffle and deal.

Anyone want to calculate the odds?

[UATrewqaz]

I've gotten pocket AA back to back before, I've played like maybe 60K to 70K hands online + another several thousand live.

You expect for this to happen once every 50K hands. Some will have more times, some will have none, but the expected is once.

[SunOfBeach]

i see 13 posts here and the first 7 i checked didnt have the answer, so if its already in here somewhere i apologize:

you want the probability of getting AA (220:1) squared, which is 48,840 to 1.