KTo is the nuts! (Party 500k hand)

[ansky451]

We're just past the bubble, and they're dropping like flies, like 330 left. There is a lot of context to this hand. I have been going nuts raising at this table since there were like 600 players, raising about 4x a round. If not for losing a coinflip, I'd have almost double what I have at this point. The player 2 to my left is an absolute little girl, weak-tight, stalling, scared player. Basically the perfect person to put 2 to my left. Everyone on the table knows this, and has joked with him about folding every hand for the last 8 rounds, and taking his time bank every time.

Last round, I had 25 bbs, and open pushed from the button, with 72o when the SB had 5 big blinds, and the BB had 3 big blinds. The SB then whined in the chatbox about how he was going to push his rags there because he knew BB would fold. He knew I had trash, but simply couldn't call probably cause he had something like 72o too. So we both know that we are watching the table. He seems pretty good overall as well, and was fairly aggro on the shortstack.

Anyways, he doubles up a few hands later (the SB) and this is the next round on my button.

Blinds are 500/1000, I have 25k ish, the SB has like 14k, and the BB has something like 4k. Remember he won't call/push without a premium hand- and he may even fold AK. He is a total joke.

Folds to me, and I min raise with KTo, cause I figure it's the cheapest way to steal, since there is no way BB is coming along. Then the SB ruins my plans and pushes. BB takes his usual 15 seconds, and folds.

I move my mouse to fold, then I start thinking. I have a real bad hand. KTo is garbage. But, would the SB push any 2 here? I think for about 15 seconds, realize I'm getting trivially bad odds, but call anyway.

Thoughts?

EDIT: The numbers may be a little off since it's from memory, but thats the basic hand.

[Firefly]

Yeah i like the call. You've shown weakness with the mini raise and he might sense that
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He seems pretty good overall as well, and was fairly aggro on the shortstack.

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If this is true then he could definately have a hand that you beat (ie any 2) so yeah GAMBOOOLLL

[JustPlayingSmart]

I don't know. With trash, wouldn't you push. I know the SB has 14xBB, but is that so much different than 10xBB that you would make a normal raise with a steal? If I was SB, that min raise would send alarm bells off in my head. I'd probably still push like 88+, AJ+ against you, but that's because I rarely fold those hands in button/blind situations. But I don't think I would push any 2 in this spot.

I guess there could be like 3rd level thinking, where he knows that the min raise might be considered strong, so his push would look like a big hand that didn't really want action (TT-JJ, AQ-AK), so therefore he might push any 2 thinking that you don't have a hand that can call against that or a similar range.

So all in all, I'd be surprised if the SB turned over total crap, but not shocked. But I don't think I would make this call.

[Firefly]

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I'd probably still push like 88+, AJ+ against you

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I sure hope your range is bigger than that against an aggro button. You could probally push any 2 and be +cEV.
My range would probally any pair, any ace, K9+,QT+ and maybe JT

[JustPlayingSmart]

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I'd probably still push like 88+, AJ+ against you

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I sure hope your range is bigger than that against an aggro button. You could probally push any 2 and be +cEV.
My range would probally any pair, any ace, K9+,QT+ and maybe JT

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It wouldn't be much bigger because of the weirdness of the min raise. If he had made his standard open (which I assume is like 2700 or so), I would push a bigger range. But given the table talk and all that context, I would not be pushing small pairs and random broadways.

[ansky451]

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But given the table talk and all that context, I would not be pushing small pairs and random broadways.




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I dont get it, shouldn't the table talk make you more inclined to push w/ junk?

[ansky451]

bump for the evening crowd?

[JustPlayingSmart]

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But given the table talk and all that context, I would not be pushing small pairs and random broadways.




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I dont get it, shouldn't the table talk make you more inclined to push w/ junk?

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The table talk would make me think you're gonna push with junk, but when you minraise, which I assume was the first time you had done that at that table, I get confused, and when I am confused, I tend to not push with hands worse than KTo.

[ansky451]

Note that the sb has 14 big blinds. Why would I push for that much with KTo???

I did it last round with 72o because he had 5 big blinds.

[JustPlayingSmart]

Would you push if he had 12 big blinds and you were going to raise? I know there is a line where you would stop pushing and start making a normal raise; have we reached it yet?

I think for me the whole thing boils down to a good player making a minimum raise. That just scares me. Maybe you can use that to your advantage, except that if you do it even twice then it loses its novelty, so then I would just treat it like any other raise from you. If your opponent doesn't care about that, then maybe he is pushing with junk. I don't think it's junk, but I wouldn't be that surprised to see A7o or 44.

[ansky451]

I don't think I'm pushing unless he had less than 10 big blinds, since I would probably be priced in to a reraise if I made a standard raise. Pushing makes no sense whatsoever here in my opinion.

[JustPlayingSmart]

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I don't think I'm pushing unless he had less than 10 big blinds, since I would probably be priced in to a reraise if I made a standard raise. Pushing makes no sense whatsoever here in my opinion.

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Does he know that? Your standard move up until now has been push. You know it's because of their stack sizes. So when they get out of a range where you think it makes sense to push, you don't push anymore. But if for them, if they still think you would push if you're trying to steal, a min raise might look especially strong.

We're basically going back and forth here. When I see good players min raise I play cautiously, and I know a lot of other guys on 2+2 do the same. Since this guy is observant, I am assuming he's somewhat competent, so I am assuming he would be cautious of a min raise also. This is why I would not call. If you don't think he is thinking like that, then it might make sense to call.

[ansky451]

Well, my thinking was as follows:

He knows I'm raising any 2 here. He doesn't know to what amount. He also knows that I know that he knows that I am raising any 2, which means that if he pushes, I have a wide calling range, because he has an even wider pushing range.

Given the fact that I was (at least trying to) running the table over, I can't see how he is folding any decent hand here, regardless of my min-raise.