A8s.....river play?

BB and CO are unknowns. First hand for both.
The only one I know is BU 66/0/.8

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls....

Comments?

[Schwartzy61]

Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

[ QUOTE ]
Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone with a 5 made their hand on the turn.

[Schwartzy61]

And if they are "slowplaying" will still at least call and maybe even reraise...

You have no read on the other two so you can't say with any certainty that they will overcall anyway. If one calls and one folds you gain nothing. If both fold you lose 1 BB. If they would've called a raise you miss out on 2 BB unless one of them happens to raise in which case you can make it 3 bets and perhaps get it capped 3-way. comes down to what you think is most likely. I would think individuals calling down on that board are doing so with a hand that will call a raise or will fold to any bet so I may as well raise...

[numeri]

Since CO is unknown, I just raise. Maybe Button will call 2 cold. BB will definitely call with the overpair.

[Bill Lumberg]

I think that’s a hard flop call to make. Even with a very large pot, there’s the issue of domination and you’re position. 1.5 outs for the A, 2 for both backdoor draws combined, .5 for the 8, for a total of 4. You need 11:1, which you are getting, but it may be raised behind you, so it’s close. But, I don’t think I make that call. The turn and river are standard.

[Koss]

River overcalls are over rated. The BB will call you. That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake. I like to have atleast 4 potential overcallers when going for something like this. Even then I don't do it if I think one of them will overcall the raise.

If CO has a 5, he is calling/reraising. If button has ANYTHING, he is also calling.

Raise every single time. Calling here is a passive crime.

[numeri]

Are you replying to me, or the OP? Because you and I are saying the same thing.

[Koss]

The OP, yours was the last pot on the page when I hit reply so that's who it replied too. My bad.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you replying to me, or the OP? Because you and I are saying the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the OP because I don't read other posts before I respond. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Schwartzy61]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you replying to me, or the OP? Because you and I are saying the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the OP because I don't read other posts before I respond. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad he wasn't referring to your post...

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
The OP, yours was the last pot on the page when I hit reply so that's who it replied too. My bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
No worries. And now I've derailed the thread. Go me! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
If CO has a 5, he is calling/reraising. If button has ANYTHING, he is also calling.

Raise every single time. Calling here is a passive crime.

[/ QUOTE ]

If CO has a 5, he would be making a horrible mistake in 3-betting if you raise. He would have raised if you just called (allowing you to 3-bet of course), but he'll usually just call if you raise.

I think you meant "BB" when you said "button," and if so BB might very well be able to fold an overpair if you raise and get overcalled or 3-bet.

I don't think raising is bad, but if the remaining villains are the tricky kind who would be slowplaying a made straight, you can probably get more bets by calling with the intention of reraising.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think raising is bad, but if the remaining villains are the tricky kind who would be slowplaying a made straight, you can probably get more bets by calling with the intention of reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]
True, but OP said BB and CO are unknown, and Button looks farily passive.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.

With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.

This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.

With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.

This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. It's more complicated than he has this or that. You have to think mathematically long-term. See my other post for formula. You have to think, "How often will this happen?" That's what determines the best play here. And like he said, the board here affects the percentages so that calling is best.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

[/ QUOTE ]


no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

[/ QUOTE ]


no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I agree, it could happen, but how often does button 3-bet? I say never. Like I said, the percentages are relative depending on the opponents, I was just pointing out that it was more complicated than others were making it out to be.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

[/ QUOTE ]


no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I agree, it could happen, but how often does button 3-bet? I say never. Like I said, the percentages are relative depending on the opponents, I was just pointing out that it was more complicated than others were making it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

fine point taken.
but if you're going to attempt to apply the supposed legitimacy of math to the topic, try to formulate a feasible comparison.

you can't have tons of action behind you in one case and not the other becuase that dramatically affects the final ev in the model.

"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

[PJM1206]

I would have folded to the flop bet no flush draw and A may not be good. But now that we are here why not riase the turn as a semi-bluff. We have upwards of 15 outs 8 diamonds, 4 5s, and 3 aces even discounted to 1.5 we still have 12-13 outs large pot I would go for it. I wouldnt think that board hit the preflop raiser so I would try to force the two opponets behind me to fold increasing my chances of winning.

I would have bet or raised the turn

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]


"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you totally leave out the "You call, button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds?"

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you totally leave out the "You call, button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds?"

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that if they like their hand enough to raise, they usually like their hand enough to 3-bet your raise and for certain will call 2-cold.

i don't think it's absolutely correct to leave it out completely. but i think it's more correct to leave it out completely than to only include it in the case of "calling".

in any case, the possible outcomes are not as important as having a good sense of the probabilities for the ones that are included.

and for the record i don't have a strong opinion on whether its better to raise or call. if i had a slight read that someone behind me liked to bluff on scary boards i'd probably decide to call and hope to lay down the smack if they bluff raised. if i was playing in a suspicious game i'd probably raise because it LOOKS more like a bluff than anything else and i'd probably get more action that way.

[Walker]

[ QUOTE ]
BU is 60/0/.8

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

...Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)


[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is the right player to try this against. I don't think he 3bets anywhere near 20% of the time.

[aargh57]

While most of the discussion seems to be on the river I'd like to discuss the flop. Why not raise this flop? You've got 2 overcards and a backdoor flush giving you about 4 or 4.5 outs with 11.5 SB. Why not raise to try to thin the field if your overcards hit and you may even be able to buy the button here.

[Schwartzy61]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you know the flush doesn't freak them out and all they will do is call whether it be one bet or two? You have absolutely no read on the players behind you so you can make no assumptions about how they will react to your actions. In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

[Koss]

If someone had a 5 why on earth would they not raise the turn? Even bad players know to do that. If anyting the completed flush draw makes it less likely they would raise it. I don't see how counting on this to be raised behind you makes much sense.

I too would like to focus on the flop. Did anyone else think fold when it came to the flop?

[Fryguy]

::doublechecks::
Yes you have the nuts. Overcalls aren't for use when you have the nuts. There's a good chance somebody here has a straight, or possibly a lower flush. BB seems to like this hand; you want to get the opportunity to go into a raising war with him. And there's a decent chance at least one of CO/Button will come along for 2 bets.

Also, I consider raising this flop with reads. Buy the button + free card + backdoor flush + 2 overcards (although one is [censored]), makes it at least worth a consideration.

[Nikademus]

Grunching

Raise. You have the nut, with no reads except that the button is a fish. If you call, you might get a call from him, you might not. BB will likely call your raise. Either way, I wouldn't expect much more than 1 more BB here.

That said, I would have folded on the flop.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, I would have folded on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
How many outs do you give hero? We're getting 11.5:1 on the flop, with 2 overcards, (1 admittedly very weak) the nut BDFD, and an ugly BDSD. It seems to be at least 4 outs to me.

[aargh57]

Yeah, that's what I came up with too. At 11.5 to one I think you are definitely getting proper odds to call here. I think raising's better because you may buy yourself some Ace outs in a pretty big pots, plus it may help you by thinning the field if you hit your 8.

Raise the River - take command of the hand. This has the added benefit of advertising that you are an uncreative chaser - it can't hurt to let the new players think you've got gills. Also, why not give the others a chance to spark a raising war?

Now, if I had any type of read on the BB or CO I might play it differently. But with unknowns, I'd rather be aggressive.

[istewart]

Raise preflop and raise the river. Flop is close but I would fold.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]
Care to elaborate? We have no reads on UTG+1. We're not buying the button very often. CO and BB are unknown.

I don't get it.

Raise the river.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really fair to single out one poster here, but this quote exemplifies the mistake I see in how many people are approaching this problem.

You are probably right that raising guarantees one extra BB at least, while calling might get you zero extra BBs. (Technically, Villain might be bet/folding, but I'll grant that's unlikely). But poker is a gambling game, and it is frequently right to give up a bird in the hand if doing so gives us a sufficiently good chance to get two in the bush.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that BB will call a single raise but will fold if it's two to him. (That should be reasonable. Like I said before, he might be bet-folding, or maybe he's a fish who will call two more cold with an overpair, but I think the typical player will call one but fold to two.) In this case, there are basically two cases in which calling costs us money:

1. Everybody folds behind us after we call. That's extremely unlikely. Most of the time, at least villain will call with his crap pair or he will have hit whatever draw he was pursuing.

2. Somebody calls who was willing to coldcall two bets if we raised but won't raise himself if we just call. Again, this seems very unlikely. If we raise, we are folding out crap pairs and getting called only by straights and flushes. But those hands would have raised if we called.

It is very unlikely that we lose any bets by just calling. I'm not going to try to assign probabilities to those events because those sorts of numbers tend to be arbitrary, but suffice it to say that it would be surprising if we lost anything by calling.

On the other hand, there are a couple situations in which calling gains relative to raising:

3. We get overcalls from two opponents holding crap pairs that would have folded to a raise. Not too likely, but possible.

4. Somebody after us raises his straight or flush, allowing us to trap BB and possibly the other opponent for extra bets. I see this as being more likley than 1, 2 or 3. In this case, we at least force BB to toss in a couple more bets and also gain another bet from the raiser (who may very well have just called our river raise but now puts in 3 bets).

Not only is scenario 4 the most likely of the meaningful, non-break-even scenarios, it's also the one that involves the biggest payoff. The more I think about, the more call-reraise seems clearly +EV relative to calling.

It is true that calling has a lower downside than raising, but it also has a larger upside and a probability distribution skewed toward that upside. It's a gamble, but it's a good one IMO.

Even if one disagrees with this analysis, you absolutely have to get away from thinking about only the worst possible scenario for various plays and what various options "guarantee" you. Playing for guarantees is very rarely good poker.

[milesdyson]

the problem is that the straights in this hand were made on the turn. so we really should expect no one to have a straight. the only hands that people can logically raise are other backdoor flushes, which are getting 3-bet if we raise anyway.

raise it up

[jrz1972]

People slowplay straights all the time, especially when one player has been showing agression on every street. I know it's dumb, but some people do this routinely. No way am I ruling out a straight.

[milesdyson]

my guess is that 82% of the time anyone with a 5 would not wait until the river to raise. also, i don't expect any top pair hands to fold for two cold here either, and i expect other pairs to call two cold a decent amount of time as well.

[jrz1972]

You think A7 calls two cold on this board? I know we shouldn't assume our opponents play expertly, but it seems like this is going too far the other way. Then again I'm the one who's comfortable assuming that somebody may be slowplaying their one-card straight on the turn so maybe I'm the one off-base here.

[milesdyson]

i expect at least button to call with pairs with those yummy stats of his.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]
Care to elaborate? We have no reads on UTG+1. We're not buying the button very often. CO and BB are unknown.

I don't get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't see CO posted, so I'd probably just limp here. In many situations though this is a pretty clear raise from MP2 IMO. A8s is good.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really fair to single out one poster here, but this quote exemplifies the mistake I see in how many people are approaching this problem.

You are probably right that raising guarantees one extra BB at least, while calling might get you zero extra BBs. (Technically, Villain might be bet/folding, but I'll grant that's unlikely). But poker is a gambling game, and it is frequently right to give up a bird in the hand if doing so gives us a sufficiently good chance to get two in the bush.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that BB will call a single raise but will fold if it's two to him. (That should be reasonable. Like I said before, he might be bet-folding, or maybe he's a fish who will call two more cold with an overpair, but I think the typical player will call one but fold to two.) In this case, there are basically two cases in which calling costs us money:

1. Everybody folds behind us after we call. That's extremely unlikely. Most of the time, at least villain will call with his crap pair or he will have hit whatever draw he was pursuing.

2. Somebody calls who was willing to coldcall two bets if we raised but won't raise himself if we just call. Again, this seems very unlikely. If we raise, we are folding out crap pairs and getting called only by straights and flushes. But those hands would have raised if we called.

It is very unlikely that we lose any bets by just calling. I'm not going to try to assign probabilities to those events because those sorts of numbers tend to be arbitrary, but suffice it to say that it would be surprising if we lost anything by calling.

On the other hand, there are a couple situations in which calling gains relative to raising:

3. We get overcalls from two opponents holding crap pairs that would have folded to a raise. Not too likely, but possible.

4. Somebody after us raises his straight or flush, allowing us to trap BB and possibly the other opponent for extra bets. I see this as being more likley than 1, 2 or 3. In this case, we at least force BB to toss in a couple more bets and also gain another bet from the raiser (who may very well have just called our river raise but now puts in 3 bets).

Not only is scenario 4 the most likely of the meaningful, non-break-even scenarios, it's also the one that involves the biggest payoff. The more I think about, the more call-reraise seems clearly +EV relative to calling.

It is true that calling has a lower downside than raising, but it also has a larger upside and a probability distribution skewed toward that upside. It's a gamble, but it's a good one IMO.

Even if one disagrees with this analysis, you absolutely have to get away from thinking about only the worst possible scenario for various plays and what various options "guarantee" you. Playing for guarantees is very rarely good poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my thinking. I'm glad someone else typed it out.

[ QUOTE ]
i expect at least button to call with pairs with those yummy stats of his.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's passive, not stupid.

[milesdyson]

he's bad at poker. bad players make bad calls with pairs. his aggression factor is a result of calling too much.

raise the river.

[ QUOTE ]
he's bad at poker. bad players make bad calls with pairs. his aggression factor is a result of calling too much.

raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Common mistake in these forums.

His aggression factor means he calls a little more than he bets\raises. Period. It tells you next to nothing about his ability to fold.

AF = bet% + raise%\ call%

Just because he's a passive, or plays bad poker, can you reasonably expect someone to cold call 2 bets on this river with 1 pair.

AF can increase with a higher fold % BUT only because it effects the number of calls made.

[Schwartzy61]

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In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really fair to single out one poster here, but this quote exemplifies the mistake I see in how many people are approaching this problem.

You are probably right that raising guarantees one extra BB at least, while calling might get you zero extra BBs. (Technically, Villain might be bet/folding, but I'll grant that's unlikely). But poker is a gambling game, and it is frequently right to give up a bird in the hand if doing so gives us a sufficiently good chance to get two in the bush.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that BB will call a single raise but will fold if it's two to him. (That should be reasonable. Like I said before, he might be bet-folding, or maybe he's a fish who will call two more cold with an overpair, but I think the typical player will call one but fold to two.) In this case, there are basically two cases in which calling costs us money:

1. Everybody folds behind us after we call. That's extremely unlikely. Most of the time, at least villain will call with his crap pair or he will have hit whatever draw he was pursuing.

2. Somebody calls who was willing to coldcall two bets if we raised but won't raise himself if we just call. Again, this seems very unlikely. If we raise, we are folding out crap pairs and getting called only by straights and flushes. But those hands would have raised if we called.

It is very unlikely that we lose any bets by just calling. I'm not going to try to assign probabilities to those events because those sorts of numbers tend to be arbitrary, but suffice it to say that it would be surprising if we lost anything by calling.

On the other hand, there are a couple situations in which calling gains relative to raising:

3. We get overcalls from two opponents holding crap pairs that would have folded to a raise. Not too likely, but possible.

4. Somebody after us raises his straight or flush, allowing us to trap BB and possibly the other opponent for extra bets. I see this as being more likley than 1, 2 or 3. In this case, we at least force BB to toss in a couple more bets and also gain another bet from the raiser (who may very well have just called our river raise but now puts in 3 bets).

Not only is scenario 4 the most likely of the meaningful, non-break-even scenarios, it's also the one that involves the biggest payoff. The more I think about, the more call-reraise seems clearly +EV relative to calling.

It is true that calling has a lower downside than raising, but it also has a larger upside and a probability distribution skewed toward that upside. It's a gamble, but it's a good one IMO.

Even if one disagrees with this analysis, you absolutely have to get away from thinking about only the worst possible scenario for various plays and what various options "guarantee" you. Playing for guarantees is very rarely good poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright so next time I'm in a situation I'll think of the absolute best possible scenario and base my judgement off that then? BRILLIANT! Optimism is great and all but I always thought we took into consideration everything that can happen. And in this case how can you say the absolute best result for us is also the most likely?

The pessimist in me is always gonna look to the dark side, I guess I will fail at poker, oh well won't be the first thing I've failed... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

River
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls, BU folds.

BB shows QQ
CO doesn't show.

[milesdyson]

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[ QUOTE ]
he's bad at poker. bad players make bad calls with pairs. his aggression factor is a result of calling too much.

raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Common mistake in these forums.

His aggression factor means he calls a little more than he bets\raises. Period. It tells you next to nothing about his ability to fold.

AF = bet% + raise%\ call%

Just because he's a passive, or plays bad poker, can you reasonably expect someone to cold call 2 bets on this river with 1 pair.

AF can increase with a higher fold % BUT only because it effects the number of calls made.

[/ QUOTE ]
the difference between a tight aggressive player and a loose passive player is that we bet/raise with more hands and we fold more hands. we fold a lot more hands postflop than typical "passive" players do. they will still raise with top pair, two pair or better. the difference is that we find folds in the right places. they do not.

sure, the stat does not explicitly account for %folds, but believe me, the reason bad players have low aggression factors is generally not simply because they do not bet or raise enough. the biggest cause of their low aggression factors is their tendency to call too often.

and to answer the question posed in your post, yes, i do expect him to coldcall two bets with top pair pretty often.

[SCfuji]

im out pf
anybody like a flop raise or are we getting 3 bet here too often?
turn fine as it is.
raise the river as it is.

I'd probably raise preflop.

Is it bad to generally call here with two overcards when one of the overcards is pretty weak (along w/ the backdoor flush draw)?

The turn is good.

As for the river...you went for the overcalls instead of the raise. I think a raise here is good if there's at least a 50% chance one of the players behind you will call two cold, if not raise. If one of the two players behind you call, and the BB makes a crying call, then a raise will show profit. I'm thinking that a raise here may be good.