This was ugly

[bobbyi]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, MP folds.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

[imported_leader]

I don't see anything wrong with that.

[ArturiusX]

Not a huge fan of betting out, no real folding equity, and most of our outs are spliting. Check and see is a better play.

[ QUOTE ]
Not a huge fan of betting out, no real folding equity, and most of our outs are spliting.

[/ QUOTE ]

We very, very often have the best hand. Everything up to the river call is a must.

[ArturiusX]

Are you kidding? You like betting into 4 people? What do you do to a raise?

I call with my flagrant 6 outer.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I call with my flagrant 7 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

[flawless_victory]

looks good until the river where i would bet.

[Victor]

go ahead and bet the riv. its more fun that way.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
go ahead and bet the riv. its more fun that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. the rest looks fine.

Surf

[TStoneMBD]

i think these guys are right about the river bet. there will be many times when ace high calls your bet but wouldnt have bet themselves. any pair is going to bet after youve checked and youll be forced to call. i also dont think there is much fear in a bluffraise.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? You like betting into 4 people? What do you do to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really easy flop bet.

I bet the river, fold to a raise.

Isn't this a prototypical river "You don't wan't overcalls" raise/fold situation?

[ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? You like betting into 4 people? What do you do to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally I dont like betting AK UI into a large field, but in a 10/20 6-max game, I think betting out is a good line because of the propensity for most people to raise pairs preflop. So I think leading AK is okay here. I think another acceptable line is to check-raise a late position bettor if you have any confidence that the button or CO will bet the hand if checked to.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call with my flagrant 7 outer.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 7th out isnt a full out since you're chopping a large amount of the time.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? You like betting into 4 people? What do you do to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally I dont like betting AK UI into a large field, but in a 10/20 6-max game, I think betting out is a good line because of the propensity for most people to raise pairs preflop. So I think leading AK is okay here. I think another acceptable line is to check-raise a late position bettor if you have any confidence that the button or CO will bet the hand if checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a difference here between 10/20 and 5/10? At 5/10, I'd bet the flop, but I wouldn't bet that turn or river. Is this wrong?

[ QUOTE ]
At 5/10, I'd bet the flop, but I wouldn't bet that turn or river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I think firing on the flop but backing off on the turn OOP with AK UI gets you the worst of both worlds. By pulling back on the turn, you give up any hope of folding a better hand by betting, and instead you relegate yourself to either check-calling a worse hand or check-folding a better hand.

Of course, I also think there are plenty of times when its right to fold AK on the flop or 4th street. Typically this depends with the coordination of the board, the action after the flop, and the "liveness" of your outs.

[Wynton]

After our flop bet didn't succeed in getting it hu - on an ugly board with no draws - I think it's unrealistic to expect that a turn bet is going to win the pot right there. And I don't think anyone is folding their small boat on the river either.

[brazilio]

There's nothing ugly on this board. People expect A high and their 6-outers are definitely good enough to call down. You can't ask for a much better board than this for AK UI. You apparently seem to be missing the point. You're value betting, not betting to fold a small boat.

[Wynton]

But remember, I limited my comments to 5/10. At 5/10, when the flop is 5-way and unraised, I assume that at least 1 of the limpers has a pocket pair. Do you think this is unreasonable at 5/10?

[brazilio]

I don't think 5/10 or 10/20 would make the difference. Pocket pairs are a minority of holdings, and a value bet need not be 100% winning to be profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
There's nothing ugly on this board. You can't ask for a much better board than this for AK UI. You're value betting, and to charge players with live outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Otherwise, total agreement.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
Pocket pairs are a minority of holdings, and a value bet need not be 100% winning to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can expand on this a little, I might just learn something for a change.

If 5 people see an unraised flop, and 2 of them call a flop bet on a board that is not at all drawy, how often do you think at least one of them has a pocket pair at 5/10? I would have guessed the answer is like 85% of the time. Is this estimate too high?

[brazilio]

I'd say that's way too high. Boards like this, people know and expect that their 4-5 outers are good. They know A high is a pretty good hand on this board. If an Ace does drop, there's no domination issues, and their other cards are going to be clean as well. I'd expect much more action on the flop than I got from virtually any pocket pair because they know if you're on overcards, they definitely want you out on the turn if they can.

The math is pretty complicated but as usual, BruceZ clarifies. Probability forum link. (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=396447&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp;o =&amp;fpart=1&amp;vc=1) The simplified formula posted by Qui-Gon is a more straightforward approximation.

From my perspective, I just go by the basic principle that pocket pairs are fairly unusual (16:1 against any particular playing being dealt it), and adding in the fact that most pairs, 77+ will be raised at whatever shorthanded table you're talking about. So the lack of a preflop raise on a 333 flop is really positive for AK.

[ QUOTE ]
and 2 of them call a flop bet on a board that is not at all drawy

[/ QUOTE ]

The call on the flop is going to be unpaired overs and/or stray aces the vast majority of the time. Anybody with a pair will be raising the flop, both to protect his small boat, and to find out how serious you are. The fact that you raised preflop and bet the flop, strongly weighs in favor of betting the turn.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
any pair is going to bet after youve checked and youll be forced to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Am I always forced to call? After it went check/bet behind me I was, but if it goes bet/call or (obviously) bet/raise, I can fold and save $20. How often is AK good if it goes bet/call behind me?

[B Dids]

This doesn't feel like AKo unimproved, it's actually a pretty damn good board for AKo.

I bet the river.

[kiddo]

Yes, its a good board. Its really strange that players folded this flop because our overs will almost always be good for a win or a split.

But we are out of position and we have to call if they raise turn, so if they are a bit LAGGY a bet is bad.