Probability of a losing streak...

[1800GAMBLER]

Ok, we know the odds of a gutshot, odds a dominated hand wins, odds of runner runner winning.

We know a losing session will contain x amount of these over y amount of hands.

So the probability of a loosing session happening could be worked out? Then could be writen as, 'After A amount of sessions it's B chance likely you'll have a lossing session.'

But there are hugely amount of factors determining if you are getting lucky or unlucky in a game:

Starting Hands
Hitting Flop
Improving Hand
Draws
Other players Improving Hands.

But all those apart from the other players improving can be calc. to see if you had a lucky/unlucky session, right?

I have nowhere near the maths ability to do this, but i'm wondering if there is any software like pokertracer that is able to do this. I'm also wondering if people are aware/agree this can be calc.?

I read Lee Jones saying Manson calc. how much a loosing session could cost at the max. anyone got any info/links/calcs on this?

Thanks.

[Rook1]

some of the stuff could be done on SPSS ( a statistical progam) Its used by most by buisness and science, but could be used to do some of your questions. Also excel for windows can do some stats too. you could caculate chances of winning sesion or losing session easily, but you have to collect the data( your playing ) and insert it. But if thats all you wanted it could be done on paper and pencil.

[Copernicus]

You are making things more complicated than you need to. The variables you are looking at are too random and complex to analyze meaningfully. Instead, if you look at your mean earnings rate and Standard Deviation (in terms of BB/hour), you can easily calculate the probability of losing streaks of different lengths, minimum bankrolls etc. The best treament of this Ive seen is in Mason's Gambling Theory and Other Topics.

An interesting result on that topic is that a player with a win rate of $30/hour and a standard deviation of $650/hour needs over 4,200 hours of play to "ensure a win" (actually to have a very low probability of losing)...i.e. this player has a very real (although small...around 1%) possiblity of a two year losing streak....and the net win might be $30! A tough way to earn a living.

The chapter on money management is also the most honest Ive seen anywhere, making the point that there is no such thing as money management. Stop losses, quitting when you reach a $ goal, betting patterns, etc are all nonsense. As long as you are playing to the best of your ability (not tired, not steaming or intimidated and so on), no "money management" scheme will make any difference.